News from the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel

October 13, 2006

During the week of Oct 2-6, 2006, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel met to begin deliberations towards achieving a consensus prediction for the maximum amplitude and timing of the 24th solar cycle. The panel expects to issue a preliminary prediction in the spring of 2007. The panel also expects to issue updates to this prediction on an annual basis until a final prediction is issued, approximately 30 months after cycle 24 has begun.

There are more than 30 wide ranging predictions, both published and submitted directly to the panel, which are being considered. Significant progress in the development of new predictive techniques has been made since the cycle 23 panel report (Joselyn et al., 1997). The panel will consider all new, relevant information submitted to it at any time (submit.cycle24@noaa.gov) up until the panel issues a final prediction. The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel is organized and chaired by NOAA and funded by NASA.

The voting members of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel are: Douglas Biesecker (Chair), Mausumi Dikpati, Kathlene Dowdy, David Hathaway, Todd Hoeksema, Eric Kihn, Ronald van der Linden, Henrik Lundstedt, Dean Pesnell, Leif Svalgaard, and Richard Thompson. O.C. St. Cyr and Joseph Kunches are ex-officio members.

The following, invited consultants, participated in the panel meeting: Paul Charbonneau, Matthew Penn, Mark Rast, Keith Strong, Andrey Tlatov, and Steven Tobias.

Subsequent to the meeting, Mark Rast has been named as a voting panel member.