Top News of the Day

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.

G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are occurring as a consequence of somewhat elevated solar wind speeds and enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. Forecasters expect this to be the height of the disturbance. Watch here for updates.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.

A prolonged episode of southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field, the condition that most effectively rattles the earth's magnetic field, is occurring today as anticipated. Possibly connected to transient flow, the situation is causing forecasters to issue a warning for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity through 0600 UTC,16 February ( 1:00 am EST, 16 February). Watch here for updates.

A prolonged episode of southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field, the condition that most effectively rattles the earth's magnetic field, is occurring today as anticipated. Possibly connected to transient flow, the situation is causing forecasters to issue a warning for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity through 0600 UTC,16 February ( 1:00 am EST 16 February). Watch here for updates.

SWPC’s partners that track the ACE satellite have begun to see problems with tracking ACE.  The orbit of the ACE spacecraft is about to take it directly in line with the Sun, as seen from Earth.  This will happen on February 8^th, but ACE is already so close to the Sun that ground stations are having trouble.  The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the signal from ACE difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation will get worse over the next two days and will then improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).  These problems are temporary, but are expected to continue for the next 4 or more days.

SWPC welcomes the Korean Radio Research Agency’s Space Weather Center as a partner in the space weather enterprise.  As of February 1, 2012 the Space Weather Center's new tracking station on Jeju Island is being used to provide critical tracking and downlink of real-time data from the NASA ACE satellite.  This addition helps to ensure there is continuous real-time data available from ACE, which is used to provide critical warnings of geomagnetic storms to a wide variety of SWPC customers.

With the continued decline of the Solar Radiation Storm, now below S1 (Minor), and the sideswipe from the CME yesterday, space weather has returned to more benign conditions. Check here for any changes.

A pulse in the solar wind passed the ACE spacecraft around 1540 UTC (10:40 EST) today. This abrupt increase in speed and magnetic field strength is thought to be from a CME on Friday, January 27. No significant geomagnetic storm activity is expected from this. Another effect of Friday's eruption, a Solar Radiation Storm, continues its leisurely decay and is nearing the end of the event (currently at S1 (Minor) levels).

The Solar Radiation Storm associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout from January 27^th is in decline and levels have now decreased below S2 (Moderate) levels.  No further significant activity is expected at this time, but stay tuned for updates.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.

NOAA Region 1402 continued to generate activity with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout around 1830Z (1:30 PM Eastern) on January 27th.  The Solar Radiation Storm scale, which had crossed below the S2 (Moderate) threshold less than 48 hours prior, is still above the S2 threshold but now appears to be leveling off and showing the first signs of decay.  Given the location of the region and the fact that the impressive coronal mass ejection associated with this event was directed away from Earth, significant geomagnetic storm activity is not expected from this event.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1402 continues its trek around the limb and out of view.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.

NOAA Region 1402 continued to generate activity with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout around 1:30 PM Eastern on January 27th.  The Solar Radiation Storm scale, which had crossed below the S2 (Moderate) threshold less than 48 hours prior, is still above the S2 threshold but now appears to be leveling off and showing the first signs of decay.  Given the location of the region and the fact that the impressive coronal mass ejection associated with this event was directed away from Earth, significant geomagnetic storm activity is not expected from this event.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1402 continues its trek around the limb and out of view.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.

S2-Solar Radiation storms are in effect. R3 Radio Blackouts were observed at around 1830Z. Also, Protons, greater than 100 MeV, are above the 1 pfu threshold.  A CME was also observed, associated with this event, however initial analysis shows this CME as not being Earth directed. Follow us on Facebook for more information.

S1-Solar Radiation storms are in effect. R3 Radio Blackouts were observed at around 1830Z. Also, Protons, greater than 100 MeV, are above the 1 pfu threshold.  A CME was also observed, associated with this event, however initial analysis shows this CME as not being Earth directed. Follow us on Facebook for more information.

R3 Radio Blackouts are in effect. An X1.7 X-ray flare was observed at 1840Z from Region 1402.  A warning has been issued for a S1 - Solar radiation storm. This warning is in effect for the next 24 hours. Follow us on Facebook for more information.

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards quiet levels. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves to rotate off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days.  For more information, you can also follow us on Facebook.

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet.

The S3 solar radiation storm that yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized areas of the northern latitudes. However, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours.

We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves to rotate off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days.

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet. The S3 solar radiation storm that  yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized area of the northern latitudes however, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA  G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves toward rotating off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days. You can also follow us on Facebook (http://tinyurl.com/6csvflm).

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet. The S3 solar radiation storm that  yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized area of the northern latitudes however, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA  G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves toward rotating off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days. We are posting frequent updates on the SWPC Facebook page, which you can follow us here (http://tinyurl.com/6csvflm.

G1 - Geomagnetic Storm in Progress. G2 - Geomagnetic Storm warning in effect.  S3 - Solar Radiation Storm  in Progress. This Solar Radiation Storm is the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003.
For more information, please follow us on Facebook.

With the arrival of the CME today around 1500Z, the energetic particles increased again. Protons greater than 10 MeV increased to around 6300 pfu. This makes this Solar Radiation Storm the largest Solar Radiation storm since October 2003.
For more information, please follow us on Facebook.

CME arrival at ACE!!!
SWPC forecaster predicted the arrival of the CME from 23 January around 1400Z on 24 January.  Around 1433Z today,  the CME was seen arriving at the ACE Spacecraft. SWPC forecasters are expecting this CME to arrive here at Earth in about 30 minutes. A G1-Geomagnetic Storm warning has been issued until 0100Z on 25 January.  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

 The radiation storm that began early this morning has continued to rise very slowly throughout the day but has remained at the S3 (Strong) level.  It should be at or near its peak and is expected to begin to decrease soon.  We are still awaiting the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection which is still expected at about 9am EST (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.  The SWPC forecast is for Moderate (G2) level geomagnetic storming with G3 levels possible.  An animation from the WSA-Enlil model showing the Coronal Mass Ejection and its trip from the Sun to the Earth is available here.   Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

As the strongest Solar Radiation Storm (S3) since May, 2005 continues, the associated Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive about 1400 UT (9am EST) Jan 24.  SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch with G2 level storming likely and G3 level storming possible, with the storm continuing into Wednesday, Jan 25.  All of this activity is related to a moderate (R2) Radio Blackout x-ray flare that erupted Sunday night (11pm EST).  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth.  Geomagnetic storming is a near certainty from this event, pending preliminary analysis no estimates are available yet for timing or strength of the storm.  The associated solar flare peaked at the R2 (Moderate) level on January 23 at 0400 GMT (11pm Jan 22 EST).  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.

Following on from earlier today, an eruption from NOAA Region 1402 at 1605 UTC (11:05 EST) today included an earth-directed CME. Forecasters expect it to impact the geomagnetic field this weekend. Analysis is ongoing as to the strength of this impending disturbance. Check here for updates.

NOAA Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth's magnetic field. Keep watch here through the weekend as conditions unfold.

NOAA Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth's magnetic field. Keep watch here through the weekend as conditions unfold.

Due to necessary system maintenance there will be two short outages of SWPC products on Monday January 9^th and Tuesday January 10^th.  On Jan 9 beginning at 1400UT (0900 US EST) the SWPC web page will not update for up to one hour.  On Jan 10 at 1400UT, there will be an outage of almost all SWPC products, including the ability to issue watches, warnings, and alerts for up to one hour.  However, if significant space weather activity is underway or imminent, these outages will be postponed.

The potential for episodes of G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storms has declined, as more normal conditions are now occurring. More of the same anticipated the next few days.

Coronal Mass Ejections from the last few days may cause isolated periods of G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Activity on December 28-29. Updates here as appropriate.

UPDATE: As of Monday, December 12, SWPC has adopted a better way to characterize geomagnetic activity. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings are now based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: As of last Monday, December 12, SWPC has adopted a better way to characterize geomagnetic activity. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings are now based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

The ACE data are once again available, just after 1800 UTC.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

A serious issue related to the processing of the ACE data has caused a prolonged outage, beginning near the start of today. Activities to fix the problem are now in full form.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

A sharp pulse seen by the ACE spacecraft may herald the beginning of a geomagnetic disturbance. The pulse occurred just after 2100 UTC (4 p.m. EST), and as yet both solar wind speed and magnetic field strength, though elevated and enhanced, are not indicating significant imminent geomagnetic storm activity.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

An S1 (minor) solar radiation storm began a few hours ago and continues. The source of this event is not clear, although there has been CME and very small long-duration x-ray flare activity that preceded it. SWPC forecasters are lookng for a return to more normal conditions over the next 24 hours.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

An S1 (minor) solar radiation radiation began a few hours ago and continues. The source of this event is not clear, although there has been CME and very small long-duration x-ray flare activity that preceded it. SWPC forecasters are lookng for a return to more normal conditions over the next 24 hours.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

ACE Tracking Difficulties:

The ACE spacecraft is currently near the Sun-Earth line, causing the satellite dishes used to track ACE to be pointed very close to the Sun. The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the ACE signal difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar RFI or solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation is expected to improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite:

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

UPDATE:  To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th.  On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The Coronal Mass Ejection that erupted in conjunction with the minor solar flare at 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) on November 9th, is now bearing down on Earth.  It's a moderately fast CME that is expected to arrive early in the day on November 12 (GMT).  SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Minor storm levels on November 12.  Aurora are only expected to be visible at high latitudes.  The WSA-Enlil model run showing the event arriving at Earth is available here.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

At 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) November 9th a minor (R1) solar flare erupted on the Sun.  In addition to this flare, there have been several coronal mass ejections from the Sun in the past day.  None of them appear to be headed directly towards Earth, but impacts may still be felt.  We are waiting for more data to come in to fully assess the potential impacts on Earth.  Stay tuned to this website for updates as we learn more.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

NOAA 1339 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2027 UTC (4:27 pm EDT) on November 3. If a CME occurred, chances are it is not earth-directed given the far eastern  eruption site on the solar disk. Stay tuned on that bit. The large, bright active region remains potent. Odds are good there's more to come.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

A monster of an active region, NOAA number 11339, has rotated on to the Earth-facing side of the Sun.  This is the largest active region in almost seven years, since January 2005.  It has produced only a few minor flares so far, but SWPC will be keeping a close eye on it to watch for any threatening behavior.  This region is likely to remain a threat for the 11 days or so it will take to rotate back to the far side of the Sun.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

Two days ago a Coronal Mass Ejection erupted from the Sun that looks like Earth will just catch the edge of.  Yesterday, the Sun launched another CME that looks to also have us just catching the edge.  Overall, no major space weather impacts are expected.  The SWPC run of the WSA-Enlil model for these two CME's shows the second one catching up to the first one just as they arrive at Earth.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

Nothing significant is expected.  The results from the latest run of the WSA-Enlil model are in and indicate a mid-day Sunday Oct 30 (GMT, early EDT) arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection that erupted from the Sun on Oct 26th.  This slow moving CME will hit Earth with a glancing blow and is not expected to cause significant space weather activity.  The WSA-Enlil model run for this event is available by following this link.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The Coronal Mass Ejection observed Saturday morning arrived late Monday (EDT and GMT), about 8 hours earlier than model guidance suggested.  A single period reaching the G2 (Moderate) level was observed followed by several periods of G1 (Minor) storming.  While not a terribly significant geomagnetic storm, it did happen at a time when most of the United States was dark or getting dark.  Couple that with the fact that large parts of the US had very clear skies, and you've got some beautiful sightings of the aurora across the northern tier of the US.  Unfortunately for sky watchers, the geomagnetic storm appears to be in decline and no further significant space weather is expected at this time.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The Coronal Mass Ejection observed Saturday morning arrived earlier today (Monday, EDT and GMT), about 8 hours earlier than model guidance suggested.  Significant space weather is not expected.  Early phases of the event have reached the G1 level, but that should be close to the peak level seen in this event. 

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The Sun is trying, but it's only managing to throw some weak stuff Earth's way.  One coronal mass ejection (CME) off the Sun's west limb on Saturday Oct 22 (EDT and GMT) caused a small increase in high energy protons at Earth, just enough to cross the S1 threshold for a short period of time.  Another CME looks like it's going to brush by Earth on Tuesday (EDT and GMT), giving us at best very weak geomagnetic storm activity, not expected to hit even the G1 level.  You can see the results of the WSA-Enlil model run for the CME that's going to brush by Earth here.  Moderate solar flare activity is possible for the next few days.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The Sun is trying, but it's only managing to throw some weak stuff Earth's way.  One coronal mass ejection (CME) off the Sun's west limb on Saturday Oct 22 (EDT and GMT) caused a small increase in high energy protons at Earth, but not enough to trip any alerts.  Another CME looks like it's going to brush by Earth on Tuesday (EDT and GMT), giving us at best very weak geomagnetic storm activity, not expected to hit even the G1 level.  You can see the results of the WSA-Enlil model run for the CME that's going to brush by Earth here.  Moderate solar flare activity is possible for the next few days.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The prediction of geomagnetic storms just got a whole lot better, thanks to the WSA-Enlil space weather model now running on  NOAA supercomputers.  The WSA-Enlil model helps SWPC narrow forecasts of storm arrival times from a 30-hour window down to a 12-hour window. "Ambient" model runs, which do not include coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are run every two hours - results are here. When a CME threatens, the model is run in a different mode and the most recent results are here (This page currently features a series of CME’s that erupted Oct 1-2). Read more in NOAA's press release.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.

The geomagnetic storm from yesterday never amounted to anything more than a minor (G1) storm and no impacts to users were reported to NOAA.  Space Weather is calm and is expected to remain calm for the next few days, at least.

Minor geomagnetic storming (G1 on the Geomagnetic Storm Scale) is underway following the arrival at Earth of 1 or more Coronal Mass Ejections that erupted from the Sun late last week and into the weekend.  Activity is not expected to strengthen much beyond current levels.  For more frequent updates on this activity and on space weather in general, check out the SWPC Facebook page.

The three-day old geomagnetic disturbance just won't go away. Episodes of G2 (Moderate) conditions are still occurring, fueled by the still-turbulent solar wind streaming past earth. Look for things to quiet over the next 24 hours.

The ongoing G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm which began September 26 lingers. The solar wind has returned to more normal conditions and the parent region, NOAA Region 1302, has been less active.

The ongoing G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm which began September 26 is on the decline. The solar wind has returned to more normal conditions and the parent region, NOAA Region 1302, has been less active.

The Geomagnetic Storm that began yesterday is quieting down, though we aren’t quite back to quiet conditions yet.  High speed solar wind is coming in behind the Coronal Mass Ejection and these winds are keeping things slightly active on the space weather front.  The region on the Sun that produced this activity is in a favorable position to cause further problems, but it is starting to weaken.  It remains a threat, though diminishing.  Yesterday, there would have been problems with high accuracy GPS and there was a noted issue with the FAA’s Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), where the Vertical Error Limit was exceeded.  WAAS is used to provide high accuracy GPS in the areas around airports.  Much more information about this storm is available on the SWPC Facebook page.

The fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 arrived this morning at 1237Z (8:37am Eastern Time).  It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity.  Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this event, though it may persist long enough for viewers in North America.  The bulk of the CME missed the Earth, meaning the storm intensity and duration are less than what they would have been in the case of a direct hit.  We are posting frequent updates on the SWPC Facebook page, which you can follow (here).

NOAA Region 1302 remains impressive and active as it continues its transit across the visible disc.  As shown in the GOES X-ray plot below, 1302 produced an R3 (Strong) and multiple R2 (Moderate) flares today.  Intermittent degradation to High Frequency communications occurs on the daylight side of the Earth during each respective flare.  Also, the slow rise of energetic protons near Earth has flattened out and we are hovering right around the S1 threshold (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scales).  A fairly fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the long duration R2 flare is partially directed at Earth (long duration meaning long-lasting in time and wider in the graph below, as opposed to the impulsive flares that spike quickly).  We won?t see the bulk of this CME, but a glancing blow is predicted for late evening Eastern Time on the 25th (or right around start of day GMT on the 26th).  Geomagnetic Storm levels reaching the G1 (Minor) level are likely with isolated G2 (Moderate) possible, particularly at high latitudes.  1302 remains active so stay tuned for further updates.

Newly numbered NOAA Region 1302 (the bright area in the upper left of the NOAA/GOES-15 SXI image shown below) produced an X1 (NOAA Scale R3 ? Strong) flare peaking at 7:01 AM Eastern (11:01 GMT) this morning.  This flare did have an impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it.  However, given the location of Region 1302, this CME was not directed at Earth.  Activity from this location can also increase the population of energetic protons near Earth (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scale), but these enhancements would be slow rising.  This region is just now rotating into view, so the potential for continued activity is certainly there.  Stay tuned for updates.

The Coronal Mass Ejection arrived overnight, as forecast. So far, the geomagnetic response has been underwhelming, but possibilities for reaching Minor (G1) Geomagnetic Storm levels remain as long as we are under the influence of the CME. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels mid-afternoon Eastern Time (evening GMT).

A filament eruption from very early on the 14th resulted in a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).  This CME was relatively slow-moving, but it's passage is likely to be noticed early evening to late day on the 16th, Eastern Time (end-of-day on the 16th or early on the 17th, GMT).  Significant geomagnetic storming is not expected but periods reaching the G1 (Minor) level are possible.  Follow this link for more information on the NOAA Geomagnetic Storm Scales and the associated impacts: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms.  High latitude auroral watchers should be on the alert for some activity.
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The Geomagnetic Storm intensified to G2 (Moderate) due to prolonged southward Bz. But the solar wind magnetic field vector has weakened in the last hour, so possibly the teeth of the storm has now just passed. More updates later.

Now seeing the beginning of disturbed solar wind conditions in the past few hours. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming now occurring. Watch here as the activity unfolds.

Now watching the solar wind for the pulse expected late tomorrow, September 9. The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout and its associated CME are not expected to play in to the isolated, low level -- G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm response -- expected through September 10.The source of this solar activity, Region 1283, has been like "Old Faithful." Is there another flare to come around 2200Z today? Keep watch.

Twenty four hours after unleashing an R3 (Strong) Solar Radio Blackout, the same region on the Sun has done it again.  Occurring at 2237Z (6:37 p.m., EDT) an R3 solar flare is still in progress at this time.  Until more data come in, we won't know if there is potential for additional Geomagnetic Storm activity from this event to add to the G1 (Minor) storming already predicted for September 9-10.  Continue to watch this space for updates.

Glancing blows from two Coronal Mass Ejections over the past 48 hours are expected to cause possibly short-lived G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin late on September 9. The CMEs were accompanied by two Radio Blackouts, the most recent - and strongest - at 2220Z (6:20 p.m., EDT) yesterday. NOAA Region 1283 spawned the activity and remains potent. Watch here for updates.

The Sun is staying active and reaching a bit higher, with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout Event underway at this time.  This is from the same region near disk center mentioned in the last update.  There are preliminary indications there is a CME accompanying this flare, but we are waiting on coronagraph imagery to determine the speed and direction. 
As more information flows in, we'll provide updates.

An R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Event occurred today at 0150Z. The source of the flare is a bright region near center disk with the potential to generate additional solar eruptive activity. Today's R2 was accompanied by a relatively weak, Earth-directed CME. This CME is not expected to cause significant Geomagnetic Storm activity and further analysis is currently underway to better refine the CME timing and magnitude.
More updates as conditions warrant.

We are currently experiencing an outage of the Boulder magnetometer data from USGS.  USGS is currently investigating the problem but root cause and estimate of return to service are unknown at this time.  As a backup, all SWPC geomagnetic products are currently using the USGS's Fredericksburg magnetometer, resulting in NO degradation of service in our alert and warning products (Fredericksburg carries the station id FRD in the following: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/).  Stay tuned for updates.

The USGS Boulder magnetometer data has been restored and SWPC is back to using that station as the primary feed for all geomagnetic products.

The largest flare of the solar cycle, an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, alternatively classified as an X6, occurred today at 0805Z. Region 1263, now poised near the west limb, produced the event and a few others of lesser magnitude in the past day. The region remains hot at this writing.
A quick rise in the protons at GOES reached S1 (Minor) levels soon after the eruption. Given the location of the activity, any CMEs would likely be directed away from Earth so no significant Geomagnetic Storm activity is forecast.

More normal conditions have returned, now that the solar wind has calmed since early today. At the Sun, Regions 1261 and1263 could still erupt before rotating off the disk. Forecasters are watching those.
Next up -- a high speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours, possibly bringing isolated G1 (Minor) levels. Keep tabs here for new developments.

In the wake of the shocked solar wind, G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions have been seen already, and a warning for G3 (Strong) Storming has been issued. Strong, Prolonged Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field and fast solar wind continue to fuel the disturbance.

The shock passed ACE just over 30 minutes ago; watch now for more geomagnetic and solar radiation storm activity.

Conditions have quieted since the arrival of the first shock late yesterday. Its passage did not excite the geomagnetic field much, as was predicted -- rather it's the still-expected jolt from two others still on the way. ACE low energy proton data show there's still a good chance of their arrival any time soon.
Meanwhile back at the Sun, the active regions that have been so productive the past few days have been either stable or in decay in the past day. Keep a watch here for further developments, both nearer the Earth or back at the Sun.

The first of the three shocks arrived at 2155Z, about one hour ago.  So far, only slight disturbances to the geomagnetic field, but there is plenty of action still anticipated.  See a video of a SWPC researcher talking about this activity and what we can expect: Video

Great anticipation for the first of what may be three convergent shocks to slam the geomagnetic field in the next twelve hours, +/-. The CME with the Radio Blackout earlier today is by far the fastest, and may catch its forerunners in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) -- at earth. Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible.

Updates here as conditions develop.

Yet another eruption from Region 1261 caused a Solar Radiation Storm, currently S1 (Minor), to occur earlier today. There may be another kick to it in 12 hours or so, when a shock is expected from a CME of a few days ago. Watch here for new developments.

Seemingly the Solar Radiation Storm threat is off the table, at least for now. The protons may again increase with the arrival of the shock driven by the CME that left the Sun yesterday. That arrival is expected very late August 4 (UTC) or early August 5th.

The R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout of today (1348Z max) was accompanied by yet another earthbound CME. That one is anticipated to pass earth on August 7th. Early indications are that G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming is most likely the extent of it. Watch here for more.

A just-occurring R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout, likely from Region 1261, may presage an imminent Solar Radiation Storm. Keep watching for more information.

Further analysis of the CME from center disk earlier today suggests G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin very late (UTC) on August 4, and linger for approximately 24 hours. High latitudes may experience isolated intervals of G2 (Moderate) conditions.

This eruption was not unexpected, and also caused the energetic protons measured by the GOES satellites to become enhanced. Early indications are for increased geomagnetic activity with the CME passage around August 4-5. Check this space for updates.

Eleven years ago, the Sun contributed to the fireworks with flares, CMEs, radiation and geomagnetic storms that would become to be known as -- you guessed it -- the Bastille Day Storms of 2000. Now into the new cycle, activity of this scale is unlikely any time soon, but be prepared for it when it comes.

High speed winds have been buffeting the Earth for the past two days and look set to continue for a few more.  However, the CME that erupted on June 21 appears to have slid by the Earth without having any noticeable impact.  The active regions on the Sun today are all small and magnetically simple so the forecast is for space weather to remain calm.

NOAA forecasts, supported by guidance from the WSA-Enlil solar wind model, are projecting CME arrival mid to late day UTC on June 23.  The CME does appear to be clearly Earth-directed, so some effect is almost certain.  The bulk of the disturbance is still expected on June 24, with G1 (Minor) and isolated G2 (Moderate) levels of Geomagnetic Storming expected for the duration of the event.  High latitude aurora watchers should be on alert Thursday and Friday night.
No significant additional activity has occurred or is forecast at this time.  There is only one significant active region, Region 1236, and that region has been relatively quiet and stable since the activity that initiated this CME.

The Sun kicked off summer (for us in the northern hemisphere) by launching a CME early today that appears to be Earth directed. Expect G1 (Minor), with isolated, short-lived G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin early June 24. Watch here for updates.

Apart from an increase in turbulence in the solar wind late yesterday, little was seen at ACE from the dramatic flare/CME of June 7. Consider the coast being now clear, and await the next piece of the space weather intrigue to be doled out by our nearest star.

The wait for the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) continues. As it is expected to make but a glancing blow on the Earth's magnetic field, the timing of the impact is difficult (much more straightforward for a direct hit). Look for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions from 1200 UTC tomorrow (June 9) through June 10.  The possibility remains for heightened Radiation Storm levels with the passage of the CME shock, but nothing greater than S2 (moderate) is forecast.

A dramatic eruption from an otherwise unimpressive NOAA Region 1226 earlier today is expected to cause G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) levels of Geomagnetic Storm activity tomorrow, June 8, beginning around 1800 UTC with the passage of a fast CME. A prompt Solar Radiation Storm reached the S1 (minor) level soon after the impulsive R1 (minor) Radio Blackout at 0641 UTC. The Solar Radiation Storm includes a significant contribution of high energy (>100 MeV) protons, the first such occurrence of an event of that type since December 2006.

Watch here for updates on the impending Geomagnetic Storm and the potentially developing Solar Radiation Storm.

Now with the benefit of more information and model input, the prediction for Geomagnetic Storm activity has been revised. The models have the trajectory of the CME to pass Earth with just a glancing blow, now expected to occur around 1200 UTC on June 9. Expect primarily G1 (minor) NOAA Scale levels then, and for the storm to persist for 24 hours.  The intensity of the Solar Radiation Storm is expected to be little affected by the passage of the CME-driven shock.

Today's condition of note is the enhancement to the >10 MeV protons at GOES. These values slowly increased on June 5-6, the likely the result of CME activity far beyond west limb seen by STEREO. Fluxes are expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.

On June 2nd, a moderately fast Coronal Mass Ejection erupted from the Sun aimed directly at the Earth.  As a result, SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Saturday, June 4th.  It is expected that storming will only reach the lowest level, G1, on the NOAA Space Weather Scale.  The most recent model guidance continues to agree with the initial forecast that the geomagnetic storm will occur June 4th.  Aurora are only likely to be visible in those places that are known for regular sightings of those beautiful lights in the sky.

We have experienced recent outages from ACE due to several stations having problems that are expected to continue for some time.  Solar radio interference on the one hand and equipment problems exacerbated by the continued effects of the recent Japanese tsunami on the other.  SWPC and our partners in the Air Force and at NASA are working hard to fill the gaps in these critical data.

GOES-15 Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) animations for numerous filter, exposure and period combinations are now available.

The 2011 Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF) will be held June 21, 2011.

The solar wind has a southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuating around -10 nT, and the speed is up too, around 500 km/s. The source of this pulse is not entirely clear, although there have been limb CMEs in the past few days. Keep tabs of this activity here.

Region 1169, now more than three days beyond west limb, produced a CME early today that resulted in an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm. This "just enough" event surpassed the threshold at 1950 UTC today, and is expected to wane over the next 12-18 hours.

As a result of the significant damage in Japan, one of SWPC's partners in the continuous tracking of the ACE spacecraft, the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) of Japan, has been experiencing rolling blackout power outages. This has resulted in a loss of ACE tracking and corresponding data gaps in the real-time ACE solar wind data during NICT's window of tracking responsibility. These data outages could occur anytime between 2300-0700 UTC and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

NCEP is pleased to announce the first edition of NCEP's online Newsletter, which will appear on a quarterly basis.  The newsletter, suggested as a result of a review of NCEP conducted by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research (UCAR), will be distributed to NCEP customers and partners to keep them apprised of the breadth of NCEP activities.  The newsletter can be accessed via a link from NCEP's homepage (http://www.ncep.noaa.gov ), as well as from links from each of the NCEP Centers.

SWPC's annual get together is coming soon, to be here in Boulder at the Millennium Hotel from April 26-29. Once again the program includes the latest in applications, model transition, agency news, and science. Use the link below, "Space Wx Workshop," to register.

Enhanced Interplanetary Magnetic Field conditions are causing slightly elevated Geomagnetic activity today. Back at the Sun, Region 1166, though less impressive, still remains potent. Forecasters are watching that one.

The shock driven by the fast CME from earlier this week passed ACE at about 0600 UTC today. It experienced considerable deceleration in its travel, so its impact on the magnetosphere was not significant. Back at the Sun, Region 1166 produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout late (UTC) on the day on March 9. Watch for more activity from that centrally located region today.

The wait for shock from the very fast CME from late on March 7 continues. However, earlier today, around 0700 UTC, what may have been a fast shock passed the STEREO Ahead spacecraft, perched almost directly off the west limb.  The eruption came from near west limb. Looking for isolated G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storming near midday (UTC) tomorrow, March 10.

Shock Arrival Expected. A fast shock driven by a CME from late yesterday is expected to pass ACE in the next 3-6 hours. SWPC forecasters anticipate G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storms into the early hours of March 9 (UTC). The expected Geomagnetic Activity adds to the R1 (Minor ) and R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackouts, and the S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm of the past 24 hours. The disk is still hot, watch for updates.

Further analysis with ENLIL and other models now suggests the CME from nearly 24 hours ago, clocking a speed of more than 2000 km/s as it left the Sun, may not arrive until midday tomorrow, March 9. Intricacies relating to the density of the ambient solar wind ahead -- and the subsequent deceleration of the ejecta -- are expected to lengthen its travel time. When it does arrive, look for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic activity to follow.

The final tally of M flares for March 7 was seven, wth Regions 11164, 11165, and 11166 all contributing towards that total. Regions 11164 ad 11166 each also gave us an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection. Further analysis is definitely warranted and expect further updates on the expected impacts of these CMEs. Finally, the CME associated with region 11164 has produced a weak proton storm at Earth that is in progress and still rising at the time of this update. These three regions are continuing to grow and we definitely expect high levels of solar activity to continue.

Due to confusion regarding the measures of geomagnetic storm intensity, the Boulder K plot is now shown in conjunction with, and just below, the Estimated Planetary K (Estimated Kp) plot. To enable real-time warnings and alerts of geomagnetic activity, Boulder K has been SWPC's long-standing real-time proxy for Kp.  SWPC Alerts, Warnings, and the indications of Geomagnetic Storms on the NOAA Space Weather Scale reference the Boulder K.  For more information regarding these two indices and their use, please see the note included on the NOAA Space Weather Scale page.

Our news update on March 4 gave fair warning. Activity on the Sun has been at high levels, with 5 M-class flares so far today. These came from 3 different active regions on the Sun, with Region 11164 producing three of them. However, the M flare that was produced by Region 11166 has our eye, because it launched a Coronal Mass Ejection towards Earth at the same time. We'll have more on that later.

Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the east limb earlier today signal the imminent arrival of two active regions to the disk. Though neither of these CMEs is expected to cause any elevated Geomagnetic Storm activity, they may presage additional activity that could be geo-effective over the next two weeks. SWPC Forecasters will be watching for more.

Operational deployment of the Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model will take place March 9, 2011. The operational Costello geomagnetic activity products will be discontinued on March 23, 2011.

The geomagnetic storm has ended. The observations of the CME and the models of this solar eruption were unprecedented. Watch the literature in the future for studies of what will surely come to be known as the "Valentine's Day Event, 2011."

A long-awaited interplanetary shock, perhaps one of an ensemble of shocks, passed the ACE spacecraft about 0045 UTC on February 18. A sudden impulse followed about one hour later, measuring about 30 nT at Boulder. The storming is quite modest so far (0430 UTC), but likely to intensify as additional shocks pass by.  Watch here for updates.

A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm continues. What might have been three hits of shocks/CMEs seems to have merged to be just one interplanetary shock/CME structure. Look for about another day's worth of geomagnetic activity, pending additional treats in the solar wind. Elsewhere Region 1158 had another R2 (moderate) radio blackout, and fast-growing new Region 1162 likely generated an R1 (minor) event.

The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours. Back at the Sun, Region 1158 is still hot and fast-growing, Region 1161 is producing small flares.

The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

The hits just keep on coming! Region 1158 produced the largest xray flare in more than 4 years, an X2.2, earlier today at 0156 UTC reaching the R3 (Strong) NOAA Scale level. A Coronal Mass Ejection occurred too, now lined up in the queue with the CME from Sunday's event and possibly another associated with the R1 Radio Blackout yesterday. Look for enhanced solar wind to begin later today, and become increasingly disturbed with the CME arrival(s) about 17 February.

The largest xray flare in over one year occurred yesterday at 1737 UTC. Region 1158 produced the impulsive R2 (Moderate) xray burst, part of the full eruption that also included a faint, earth-directed CME plus radio bursts across the spectrum. The region, still hot and flaring, yielded a small R1 (Minor) level xray burst today at 1726 UTC. Expect additional fireworks from this site over the next few days.

Region 11153 has rotated on to the far side of the Sun, having given us an M class flare and a handful of small C class flares over the past few days. Recently, there have been some small active regions appearing and disappearing that haven't bothered to produce any interesting activity and there are currently 4 of them on the disk. What has the attention of forecasters is the Sun's East limb, where old Region 11149 is just beginning to reappear having transited the far side of the Sun. During that transit, multiple coronal mass ejections were observed that were directed away from the Earth. If that region stays active, we could be in store for some interesting space weather in the days ahead as it moves towards the center of the solar disk.

Four, that's right, four new active regions popped up on the Sun yesterday. However, it was their older brethren, Region 11153 which appeared on Feb 4th, that finally decided to make some noise, giving us a moderately large M1.9 Solar Flare. This region has grown in size over the past two days and remains poised with the potential to produce some large solar flares. It's running out of time though, as it will rotate off the visible disk in two days time. We'll be keeping a close eye on Region 11153 and the four new regions in case they want to cause any more trouble.

SWPC webmaster retiring after four solar cycles.

The STEREO B IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments were able to recover this week without any problems and normal data flow has resumed following the autonomous shutdown on January 8, due to an unexpectedly high current.

On February 28, 2011 at 1800UT GOES 15 will Replace GOES 11 as Secondary SWPC GOES Proton, Electron and Magnetometer Satellite GOES-11 is the SWPC Secondary GOES satellite for particle and magnetometer measurements. Due to resource constraints, SWPC will stop collecting and processing GOES 11 space weather data at the end of February 2011. This is eight months prior to the currently scheduled official September 2011 replacement of the GOES 11 spacecraft. On February 28th at 1800UT, GOES 15, at 90 degrees longitude, will become the SWPC Secondary GOES particle and magnetometer satellite.

The STEREO Behind In-situ data (Solar Wind, Magnetic Field, and Particles) have been unavailable since late on January 8th.  An automated shutdown of the data processing unit on STEREO-B occurred when a current limit was violated.  It may take several days to recover and get the data flowing again.

Operational deployment of the Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model has encountered technical problems. The scheduled November 29 release has been delayed indefinitely. The original Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index will continue to be available.

The model runs indicate the CME caused by the filament eruption will mostly, if not entirely, miss the Earth and high speed winds are no longer forecast for later in the week, so calm is expected for the foreseeable future. So then, what about those active regions sprouting up? Well, another one is coming around the East limb of the Sun today, just as one has disappeared.  We have had 4 active regions on the Sun most of the past week, but each typically with only a handful of sunspots and none of them very complex magnetically. Lots of spots and complex magnetic fields are the hallmarks of regions that can throw powerful space weather our way.

The high speed winds rolled in on Sunday, with no strong evidence for any of last week’s CMEs. The caution against any significant activity held true, as the Earth’s geomagnetic field has barely registered any impacts, even from the high speed wind. The high winds are expected to persist for another day or so. There was an additional CME on Saturday that resulted from a filament eruption arly in the day, and which is currently forecast to arrive on Thursday Nov 18. When model guidance becomes available, this forecast may change. More high speed winds are expected by the end of the current week. This looks like another week of relative quiet, even though the Sun keeps sprouting new active regions, keeping the sunspot number ticking upward.

As the region mentioned in the past few reports died away, one immediately behind it took root and grew into something to watch. That region, numbered 11123, along with a few others on the disk, combined to produce a flurry of small C-class flares. They also produced a number of weak to moderate coronal mass ejections, a few of which are now headed towards the Earth. Runs of the WSA/ENLIL model show a fast CME that erupted on Friday will sweep up some smaller events and then combine with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) to hit the Earth about midnight on Sunday (Eastern US time). Only isolated periods of minor geomagnetic storming is expected, so if you live where the aurorae aren’t normally visible, you’ll want to stay in bed.

Active Region 11121 hasn’t gone away, but after following up with another M-class flare over the weekend, it has gone rather quiet. It has decayed since the weekend but is now somewhat stable. It hasn’t produced much in the way of activity in the past two days and it doesn’t seem likely to produce much more fireworks, beyond the three M-class flares it has already produced. We’ll be keeping a close eye on it, just in case.

Newly numbered active region 11121 rotated into view yesterday and has already delivered two M-class solar flares.  The active region is visible in the lower left of the GOES X-ray Images shown below on the left.  These flares caused minor problems for high frequency communication users.  Keep an eye on the GOES X-ray Flux plot below on the right for more flares from the Sun.  Given the region's location on the East edge of the Sun, if this region can sustain its activity, we could be in store a lot of action in the next week as the region rotates closer to the center of the solar disk.

On November 29 the Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index will be replaced by the Wing Kp model for Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index. The Wing Kp model is known to perform well for large geomagnetic storms and includes both a 1 hour and a 4 hour advance prediction of activity. 

On October 28 at 0000UT GOES 15 will become the Primary SWPC GOES X-ray and SXI satellite replacing GOES 14. GOES 14 will be put into storage mode. There are only minor differences in the appearance of the GOES 14 and GOES 15 X-ray data at the lowest flux levels.

There is no SWPC Secondary GOES X-ray or SXI satellite.

A dramatic eruption of a filament and subsequent halo coronal mass ejection (CME) lifted off from the Sun.  Moving at a ponderous 375 km/s (850,000 miles per hour), model runs show it is expected to take 4 days to reach Earth (Oct 10), having merged with a high-speed wind stream on the way.  The Earth will receive, at most, only a glancing blow from this event, as the bulk of it will miss us wide right.  The combination of high speed solar wind and the CME are expected to result in only a slight enhancement in geomagnetic activity this weekend.  All of this activity comes with no sunspots on the visible disk.
SDO images movie and annotation -- ENLIL Model movie and annotations

NOAA active region 11105, which is just about to rotate off the solar disk, left us with small reminder that it is still here.  A moderately fast coronal mass ejection(CME), traveling at 1.6 million mph (760 km/s), and a small solar flare (x-ray flare class C3.3) erupted from the region very late on September 8.  The CME is directed well away from Earth, but probably right at the STEREO Ahead spacecraft and is expected to arrive there this weekend.  It did produce a very small solar proton enhancement at Earth, as can be seen by the tiny increase in the red trace in the Satellite Environment Plot - Proton Flux.  A larger increase in low energy protons was seen at the STEREO-A spacecraft. 

Last night saw the expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (abbreviated CIR) and the subsequent high speed solar wind.  The wind speeds have exceeded 700 km/s (or 1.5 million miles/hour), which is approaching the fastest speeds seen for these types of events. The high winds are coming from a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which can be seen as a dark patch in the SXI image below.  These high speed winds should continue for at least 2 more days, buffeting the Earth and giving us some chances of minor geomagnetic storming.

A small solar flare erupted on the Sun at about 6am EDT.  Associated with this flare was a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was partially directed towards the Earth.  Also associated with this event was a S1 or minor solar radiation storm on the NOAA Space Weather Scales.
The only impacts expected for a solar radiation storm of this magnitude are minor impacts to HF radio communications in the polar regions.  However, this is the first solar radiation storm of Solar Cycle 24 and the first solar radiation storm since December of 2006. 

At this time, the solar radiation storm has subsided below threshold levels.  However, oscillation around this threshold is possible for the next several hours.  Subsequent significant activity is not expected but there may be some level of geomagnetic storming on or around August 17th and 18th from the coronal mass ejection associated with this event.  Initial observations of the coronal mass ejection direction and velocity do not indicate a high likelihood of significant geomagnetic storming but the Space Weather Prediction Center will continue to monitor this event as it unfolds.  

The coronal mass ejection which erupted on August 7 arrived overnight August 10/11 and as expected provided nothing in the way of significant effects.  The only expected activity is a potential for high speed winds causing weak geomagnetic storming in 5 days.  The sun could always throw us a surprise, as there are four active regions on the Sun today.

A minor radio blackout event occurred at 2 pm EDT on Saturday, August 7 when an M1 flare erupted on the Sun.  Associated with the flare was a coronal mass ejection which is now headed towards Earth and is forecast to arrive on August 10.  Earth is expected to take only a glancing blow and no major geomagnetic storming is expected.  There was a slight increase in the number of protons, but they remain well below any alert threshold.

A moderate space weather storm began August 3 at about 12:41pm EDT, reaching the G2 level on the geomagnetic storm scale which measures storms on a scale from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).  No significant customer impacts have been reported, though aurora sightings were reported from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  Elevated activity is forecast to continue through Friday as additional solar storms impact the Earth.

NOAA Scientist Finds Clue to Predicting Solar Flares

The GOES 10 satellite was decommissioned. GOES 14 became the Primary SWPC GOES X-ray Satellite.  Since the XRS data ceased from GOES 11 and GOES 12, there has been no Secondary SWPC GOES X-ray Satellite. There are minor differences in the appearance of the GOES 14 XRS data and at the lowest flux levels.

The Global D-Region Absorption Prediction product replaced the original D-region Absorption Prediction product. The original D-region web page and products were developed at the then Space Environment Center in 2000.

SWPC systems were down for approximately 3 hours for a network system upgrade.

The USGS, an acknowledged center of expertise for geomagnetism, assumed full responsibility for the Boulder magnetometer and its data. SWPC will continue to be a user of that data, but will no longer be the point of distribution of raw magnetometer data.  Therefore, the Boulder magnetometer DATA LISTS will no longer be available via SWPC.  However, the SWPC Boulder magnetometer web page will continue unchanged.

Carol Finn, USGS Geomagnetism Group Leader, (cafinn @ usgs.gov) is the point of contact for interested parties. Please direct any comments or questions to her.