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Top News of the Day


2014-10-25 02:34   Region 2192 is still at it

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout that .  The event began at 5:07 pm EDT (2107 UTC) peaked at the X3.1 level at 5:41 pm EDT (2141 UTC) and was over by 6:13 pm EDT (2213 UTC).  This was the third R3 event from this region, the largest region in area in 24 years.  Stay tuned to this page for updates as events develop.


2014-10-24 21:41   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout in progress

We said it remained a threat and here it is, producing another R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout that at the time of this posting, is still on the climb.  The event began at 5:07pm EDT (2107 UTC) and is still going strong over 30 minutes later.  The main communications impacts from this event are over the Pacific Ocean.   In the meantime, forecasters remain vigilant to see if there is an associated coronal mass ejection.  As we learn more about this event we will update this space.


2014-10-24 14:18   ACTIVE REGION 2192 - STILL A THREAT

Since the Strong (R3) Radio Blackout solar flare on 22 Oct, Region 2192 has only managed to give us 3 Minor (R1) Radio Blackout solar flares.  It remains a potent force in both area (the largest active region since November, 1990) and complexity and is favorably positioned for generating both Geomagnetic and Solar Radiation Storms.  Is this a sleeping giant or a region lying in wait to hit us with more fury?  NOAA forecasters remain vigilant and will update this page as activity occurs.


2014-10-22 16:51   R3 (STRONG) ACTIVITY FROM REGION 2192

Region 2192 produced an X1 (R3 - Strong) flare at 10:28 EDT (1428 UTC) on October 22nd. Further analysis will be conducted to determine if there is a CME associated with this event as imagery comes in. This region has produced 7 M-class (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) flares in the past 48 hours as well as an X1 flare on October 19th. So far none of the CMEs associated with these events are expected to be geoeffective, however, forecasters will keep an eye out for both CME activity and solar radiation storm possibility as the region approaches center disk. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-10-22 04:08   R2 (MODERATE) ACTIVITY FROM REGION 2192

Region 2192 produced its 7th M-class (R1/R2-Minor-Moderate) flare in the past 48 hours.  The M8 (R2-Moderate) flare occurred on October 21st at 9:59 EDT (22/0159 UTC) and is the largest flare to occur since the X1 flare from the same region on October 19th. Region 2192 remains a very large spot group with a fairly complex magnetic structure and will continue to be the area of interest for the next several days.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-10-20 23:46   R1-MINOR AND G1-MINOR ACTIVITY (UPDATED 20 OCT 2014 7:30 PM EDT)

Region 2192 continues to produce M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity as it transits the solar disk. It was the source region for five (5) M-class flares over the past 24 hours, as well as multiple C-class flares. At this time, there has been no indication of significant coronal mass ejection (CME) activity from these flares, but with its size and magnetic complexity, it will continue to be monitored closely. The increase in geomagnetic activity (G1-Minor) is mainly attributed to an enhancement in the solar wind environment, caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects. Enhanced geomagnetic conditions are possible for the next few days as the well-connected coronal hole transits the western solar hemisphere.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-10-19 21:03   R3 (STRONG) EVENT FROM REGION 2192 (Update)

Region 2192, the relatively large region that rotated on to the visible disk on October 17th, produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 0503 UTC (1:03 a.m. EDT) on October 19th, following a R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event shortly before.  Although a small CME can be seen in NASA's SDO imagery, the ejecta was too weak to be reflected in coronograph imagery and was moving well off the Sun-Earth line. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-10-19 05:32   R3 (STRONG) EVENT FROM REGION 2192

Region 2192, the relatively large region that rotated on to the visible disk on October 17th, produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 0503 UTC (1:03 a.m. EDT) on October 19th, following a R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event shortly before.  Forecasters are currently awaiting coronagraph imagery to assess if there were any coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with these events.  However, based on the location of Region 2192, any associated CME will likely not be Earth directed and should not have significant impacts on Earth. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-10-03 13:29   Update: R1 and R2 Radio Blackouts

Regions 2172 and 2173 produced R1 (Minor) and R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackouts yesterday at 02/1744 UTC (1344 EDT) and 02/1901 UTC (1501 EDT) respectively. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO coronograph imagery confirms that the associated CME is not Earth-directed and no geomagnetic impacts are expected as a result of this event.

Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-10-02 20:32   R1 and R2 Radio Blackouts

Regions 2172 and 2173 produced R1 (minor) and R2 (moderate) solar flare radio blackouts at 02/1744 UTC (1344 EDT) and 02/1901 UTC (1501 EDT) respectively. Initial analysis of available Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery suggests most of the ejecta is likely directed too far west and south of the Sun/Earth line to cause significant impacts. However,  forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to assess the coronal mass ejection associated with this event to determine if there is any Earth-directed component and any impacts this may have.

Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-09-14 02:34   Storm Conditions Now Waning

It has now been a little over 48 hours since the first of two CMEs passed Earth, 36 hours since the second arrived. This pair of plasma clouds interacted with Earth's magnetosphere, mostly on Friday evening, producing minor to strong (G1-G3) geomagnetic storms in their wake. Unfortunately for hopeful aurora watchers across most of the U.S., the majority of the activity occurred before dusk on Friday. However, our European friends were able to see them farther south than usual. A few sightings in New England and Eastern Canada were also reported.

The magnetosphere is currently quiet, though solar wind signatures suggest that a slight potential remains for as much as G1 (minor) storms over the next 12-18 hours.

Stay tuned for additional updates. 


2014-09-14 02:28   Storm Conditions Now Waning

It has now been a little over 48 hours since the first of two CMEs passed Earth, 36 hours since the second arrived. This pair of plasma clouds interacted with Earth's magnetosphere, mostly on Friday evening, producing minor to strong (G1-G3) geomagnetic storms in their wake. Unfortunately for hopeful aurora watchers in the U.S., the majority of the activity occurred before dusk on Friday. However, our European friends were able to see them farther south than usual. A few sightings in Maine were reported as well.

The magnetosphere is currently quiet, though solar wind signatures suggest that a slight potential remains for as much as G1 (minor) storms over the next 12-18 hours.

Stay tuned for additional updates. 


2014-09-14 01:57   Storm Conditions Now Waning

It has now been a little over 48 hours since the first of two CMEs passed Earth, 36 hours since the second arrived. This pair of plasma clouds interacted with Earth's magnetosphere, mostly on Friday evening, producing minor to strong (G1-G3) geomagnetic storms in their wake. Unfortunately for hopeful aurora watchers in the U.S., the majority of the activity occurred before dusk on Friday. However, our European friends were able to see them farther south than usual. A few sightings in Maine were reported as well.

The magnetosphere is currently quiet, though solar wind signatures suggest that a slight potential remains for as much as G1 (minor) storms for the over the next 12-18 hours.

Stay tuned for additional updates. 


2014-09-13 14:16   CME Influence Continues

G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming was observed as a result of the arrival and influence of the second of the two expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs).  Earth remains under the influence of this CME and will continue to for the near term.  Although the magnetic field orientation overnight was not favorable for continued strong storming (Bz all northward in a technical sense), rotation of that field and continued storming is still possible throughout the passage of this CME.  Stay tuned for updates. 


2014-09-12 23:35   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Underway

The storm has entered its main phase and it has strengthened to the expected G3 (Strong) level. Solar wind conditions suggest that this activity will continue for many hours and aurora watchers should be in for a good treat. SWPC forecasters will be monitoring conditions and will be ready to issue warnings should more intense storming occur. Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-09-12 23:34   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Underway

The storm has entered its main phase and it has strengthened to the expected G3 (Strong) level.  Solar wind conditions suggest that this activity will continue for many hours and aurora watchers should be in for a good treat.  SWPC forecasters will be monitoring conditions and will be ready to issue warnings should more intense storming occur.  Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-09-12 18:05   G2 (Moderate) Storming Underway

The second of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, and arrived in good agreement with the predicted arrival times.  As expected, an initial looks shows this CME is stronger than the first.  G2 (Moderate) storming is underway now and the forecast for G3 (Strong) storming on the 13thstill looks reasonable.  The solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th peaked briefly, as it often does with the passage of the shock, but is currently below the S2 threshold and in decline.


2014-09-12 16:09   Right on time...

The second of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, and arrived in good agreement with the predicted arrival times.  As expected, an initial looks shows this CME is stronger than the first.  More to come as this event plays out but the forecast for G2 (Moderate) storming for September 12thand G3 (Strong) storming on the 13thstill looks to be reasonable.  The solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th has increased with the passage of this shock, as it often does, and we currently sit just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold.


2014-09-12 01:15   The First CME Has Arrived

The first of the two CMEs predicted to arrive today made its appearance right on time. G1 ((Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected to begin within the next few hours with a maximum projected level of G2 (Moderate) storms for September 12th. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch is still in effect for September 13th due to the combined influence of this CME and the one projected to arrive late on the 12th. G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th is expected to persist for the next few days with a possible slight increase with the arrival of the CMEs. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity tonight through Saturday night. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-09-11 05:01   A Pair of CMEs

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-09-10 23:18   Recent R3 Solar Flare

Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 - Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sep 10th at 01:45pm EDT). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth lasted for a little more than an hour.

Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, however, further analysis is underway at this time.

Standby for more details.


2014-09-10 22:08   Recent R3 Solar Flare

Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 - Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sept 10th 01:45pm EDT ). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth are expected to last for more than an hour. Initial information suggests that a CME is likely associated with this event, but further analysis is underway at this time.

Standby for more details.


2014-09-10 19:43   Recent R3 Solar Flare

Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 - Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sept 10th 01:45pm EDT ). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth are expected to last for more than an hour. Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, but further analysis is underway at this time.

Standby for more details.


2014-09-10 17:58   R3 (Strong) Solar Flare in Progress

Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 - Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC. Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth are expected to last for more than an hour. Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, but further analysis is underway at this time.

Standby for more details.

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2014-09-09 18:50   G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch

A Forecast Watch for NOAA Scale G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions has been issued for 12 September, as the result of the coronal mass ejection associated with the M4 flare observed early on September 9th. The arrival of the plasma cloud at Earth’s magnetosphere is forecast for early on the 12th. G1 (minor) conditions are forecast to persist into 13 September.

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2014-09-09 18:39   G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch

A Forecast Watch for NOAA Scale G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions has been issued for 12 September, as the result of the CME associated with the M4 flare observed at 09/0029 UTC.
The arrival of the plasma cloud at Earth’s magnetosphere is forecast for early on the 12th. G1 (minor) conditions are forecast to persist into 13 September.

 


2014-09-09 04:57   R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Activity

Region 2158 produced a R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout peaking at 00:29 GMT on September 9th (8:29 pm EDT on September 8th).  This flare was a long duration event and does have an associated coronal mass ejection (CME).  Forecasters are awaiting further imagery, but an initial look indicates this CME is not headed directly at Earth.  Modeling and analysis will continue to refine the timing and magnitude of any geomagnetic storming that will be expected as a result.  Given the initial velocity estimates and direction, severe or extreme activity is not expected.  Updates here as the forecast is refined.


2014-09-09 04:51   R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Activity

Region 2158 produced a R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout peaking at 00:29 GMT on September 9th (8:29 pm EDT on September 8th).  This flare was a long duration event and does have an associated coronal mass ejection (CME).  Forecasters are awaiting further imagery but an initial look indicates this CME is not headed directly at Earth.  Modeling and analysis will continue to refine the timing and magnitude of any geomagnetic storming that will be expected as a result.  Given the initial velocity estimates and direction, severe or extreme activity is not expected.  Updates here as the forecast is refined.


2014-09-02 19:49   Back-Sided Coronal Mass Ejection

The Sun produced a sizable and fairly fast back-sided coronal mass ejection (CME) on 01 September. The source of this eruption is believed to be old Active Region 2139, a region expected to rotate back onto the Earth-facing side of the Sun in the next few days.  Despite the back-sided origin and a trajectory of this CME well away from Earth, an enhancement in high energy protons (both 10MeV and 100MeV) was still observed near Earth.  It's difficult to say what this region will hold as it rotates into view, but some potential for continued activity is surely there.


2014-09-02 14:26   Back-Sided Coronal Mass Ejection

The Sun produced a sizable and fairly fast back-sided coronal mass ejection (CME) on 01 September (check the new website for an image and movie loop of this event: http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/) . The source of this eruption is believed to be old Active Region 2139, a region expected to rotate back onto the Earth-facing side of the Sun in the next few days.  Despite the back-sided origin and a trajectory of this CME well away from Earth, an enhancement in high energy protons (both 10MeV and 100MeV) was still observed near Earth.  It's difficult to say what this region will hold as it rotates into view, but some potential for continued activity is surely there.


2014-09-02 14:25   Back-Sided Coronal Mass Ejection

The Sun produced a sizable and fairly fast back-sided coronal mass ejection (CME) on 01 September (check the new website for an image and movie loop of this event: http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/) . The source of this eruption is believed to be old Active Region 2139, a region expected to rotate back onto the Earth-facing side of the Sun in the next few days.  Despite the back-sided source location and a trajectory of this CME well away from Earth, an enhancement in high energy protons (both 10MeV and 100MeV) was still observed near Earth.  It's difficult to say what this region will hold as it rotates into view, but some potential for continued activity is surely there.


2014-08-28 06:13   G1 (Minor) Storm in progress

A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm is in progress and a G2 (Moderate) Watch remains in effect for Aug 28.  Aurora reports are coming in from Washington, Southern Minnesota, North Dakota and Central Ontario.


2014-08-27 13:08   G2 (Moderate) Activity

The two coronal mass ejections that erupted last Friday made their way to Earth early this morning as expected and we are currently observing active geomagnetic conditions. A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Warning has been issued for today along with a G2 (Moderate) Watch for tomorrow (Aug 28) as conditions persist.


2014-08-25 13:28   R2 (Moderate) Activity

Region 2151, a new region that just rotated into view near the SE limb, produced an impulsive (or short-lived) R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout mid-day on August 24th.  Given the location of this event,  the associated coronal mass ejection is well off the Sun-Earth line and no significant geomagnetic storming is anticipated as a result. This event is indicative of an uptick in activity from relatively quiet conditions as of late, though.  The Sun is currently peppered with relatively small regions, all of which are unlikely producers of severe activity at this time.


2014-08-24 14:46   M5 Flare from Region 2151

Uptick in Activity

Region 2151, a new region that just rotated into view near the SE limb, produced an impulsive (or short-lived) R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout mid-day on August 24th.  Given the location of this event,  the associated coronal mass ejection is well off the Sun-Earth line and no significant geomagnetic storming is anticipated as a result. Region 2151 had a history of M-class flare production on its previous rotation.  This event is indicative of an uptick in activity from relatively quiet conditions as of late, though.  The Sun is currently peppered with relatively small regions, all of which are unlikely producers of severe activity at this time.


2014-08-20 15:59   Geomagnetic Storm Update

Solar wind observations indicate that Earth is still under the influence of the coronal mass ejection that caused G2 (Moderate) storm levels late yesterday. Although conditions have been mostly quiet so far today, the potential for geomagnetic storms reaching the G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels still exists and the G2 Watch will remain in effect until the end of the day.


2014-08-19 23:44   G2 Conditions Observed

The geomagnetic storm that has been underway for the past few hours has hit G2 (Moderate) storm levels. G2 (Moderate) storming is possible for the next several hours, with conditions possibly persisting through just after midnight of the 20th (EDT).  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 continue to have the opportunity to view the aurora, clear skies permitting.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-08-19 22:01   Geomagnetic Storm Underway

A geomagnetic storm is underway as a result of a filament eruption originally observed on August 15th.  This filament was slow-moving but has a fairly well-organized and strong magnetic field.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming has been observed and G2 (Moderate) storming is possible through the 20th.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have the opportunity to view the aurora, clear skies permitting.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-07-14 17:37   Weak CME arrival

The Earth's magnetic field observed a weak Sudden Impulse (SI) at 14/1443 UTC. The geomagnetic disturbance is believed in response to the arrival of a very slow moving, glancing blow CME observed leaving the Sun late on 09 July.  Less than NOAA scale (G-scale) event level geomagnetic condtions are expected over the next day or so.

 


2014-07-08 17:45   M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate)

The Sun produced a M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate) at 08/1620 UTC on July 8th.  Short-lived impacts to high frequency radio communications on the sunlit side of Earth were experienced as a result.  Despite a handful of large and respectable regions near center disk, this event was produced by Region 2113, a modest group in the NE quadrant of the solar disk.  Initial solar radio observations suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was likely associated with this event.  However, based on the source location, any transient would not likely have a trajectory directly at Earth.  More analysis will be conducted as more data becomes available.


2014-07-08 17:03   M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate)

The Sun produced a M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate) at 08/1620 UTC. Short lived impacts to HF radio communications on the day lit side of Earth are expected in the tens of minutes.

Despite a handful of large and ominous regions near center disk, this event was produced by Region 2113, a modest group in the NE quadrant of the solar disk. Initial solar radio observations suggest a CME will likely be associated with this event, however based on the source location, any transient would not likely have a trajectory directly at Earth. More analysis will be conducted as more data becomes available.

Standby here for more details.


2014-07-08 16:47   M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate)

The Sun produced a M6 solar flare (NOAA Scale R2 - Moderate) at 08/1620 UTC. Short lived impacts to HF radio communications on the day lit side of Earth are expected in the tens of minutes.

Despite a handful of large and ominous regions near center disk, this event was produced by Region 2113, a modest group in the NW quadrant of the solar disk. Initial solar radio observations suggest a CME will likely be associated with this event, however based on the source location, any transient would not likely have a trajectory directly at Earth. More analysis will be conducted as more data becomes available.

Standby here for more details.


2014-06-17 03:34   Solar activity on the wane?

Activity on the Sun is trending downwards and just over a day has gone by with activity not reaching minor levels.  However, there remains a threat of solar activity reaching minor to moderate (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts) and possibly higher.  If new activity occurs,  we'll be sure to update this space.  Should you ever want to read the detailed summary of the previous day and the forecast for the next 3 days, you'll find that in the Summary and Forecast Discussion


2014-06-15 02:00   More activity on the way?

NOAA Active Region 2087 is still threatening, but the most significant activity came from a new region we can't even see yet.  A region that will be rotating into view in the next day or so threw a minor solar flare (R1 on the Radio Blackout Scale).  Adding that new region to what's already on the disk, including Region 2087 which remains a threat,  and the forecast is that minor to moderate flaring (R1-R2) is likely and there is a chance for strong (R3) or greater flaring.

Stay tuned here for information on these events or additional space weather as it happens.


2014-06-12 17:58   Region 2087 still bears watching

Solar activity is ticking along at minor to moderate levels (R1-R2 radio blackouts)  with the potential to throw more significant activity our way.  There are several regions contributing to the activity, but most of it is still coming from  NOAA Active Region 2087, which produced those 3 strong (R3) radio blackouts in the previous two days.  Forecasters are keeping a close eye on the Sun and we will update you should conditions warrant it.

Stay tuned here for information on these events or additional space weather as it happens.


2014-06-11 10:56   Region 2087 picks back up

After producing a pair of R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts in quick succession yesterday morning (10/1142 and 10/1252 UTC), active Region 2087 produced yet another R3 event today at 11/0906 UTC. Impacts from this activity were short lived and affected HF communications for the daylit side of Earth at the time of the flare. Continuing chances for more events R3 or greater events exists.  Unlike yesterday, a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not believed to be associated with this latest impulsive event.  A CME assoicated with the activity yesterday morning has been observed moving at a flank from Earth and a glancing blow to Earth from this event is expected on June 13. An outside chance of at most G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storms remains in the forecast.  

Stay tuned here for information on these events or additional space weather as it happens.


2014-06-11 10:54   Region 2087 picks back up

After producing a pair of R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts in quick succession yesterday morning (10/1142 and 10/1252 UTC), active Region 2087 produced yet another R3 event today at 11/0906 UTC. Impacts from this activity were short lived and effected HF communications for the daylit side of Earth at the time of the flare. Continuing chances for more events R3 or greater events exists.  Unlike yesterday, a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not believed to be associated with this latest impulsive event.  A CME assoicated with the activity yesterday morning has been observed moving at a flank from Earth and a glancing blow to Earth from this event is expected on June 13. An outside chance of at most G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storms remains in the forecast.  

Stay tuned here for information on these events or additional space weather as it happens.


2014-06-10 20:01   Region 2087 calm for now

After producing two R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts in quick succession this morning (June 10 at 1142 and 1252 UTC), active Region 2087 has quieted down.  It remains a potent force, however, and there are continuing chances for more events R3 or greater.  Associated with the second of the R3 radio blackouts was an energetic Coronal Mass Ejection that is directed mostly away from Earth.  A glancing blow to Earth from this event is expected on June 13 but only an outside chance of at most G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storming is forecast.  Stay tuned here for information on these events or additional space weather as it happens.


2014-06-10 14:15   Multiple R3 (X2) Solar Flares

An R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) solar flare (X2.2/Sf) was observed this morning at 10/1142 UTC. The event was produced from newly numbered Region 2087 near the SE limb of the solar disk. Short lived impacts to HF communications should be expected. The flare was short lived in duration and initial analysis does not favor an additional associated coronal mass ejection (CME). 

An additional R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) solar flare (X1.5/1f) was observed at 10/1252 UTC, approximately an hour after the previous R3 event. The source location for this second flare was also Region 2087 (S18E79). More analysis is underway at this time, so stay tuned for more details.


2014-06-10 14:13   Multiple R3 (X2) Solar Flares

An R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) solar flare (X2.2/Sf) was observed this morning at 10/1142 UTC. The event was produced from newly numbered Region 2087 near the SE limb of the solar disk. Short lived impacts to HF communications should be expected. The flare was short lived in duration and initial analysis does not favor an additional associated coronal mass ejection (CME). 

An additional R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) Solar Flare (X1.5/1f) was observed at 10/1252 UTC. approximately an hour after the previous R3 event. The source location for this second flare was also Region 2087 (S18E79). More analysis is underway at this time, so stay tuned for more details.

 


2014-06-10 12:32   R3 (X2) Solar Flare

An R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) Solar Flare (X2.2) was observed this morning at 10/1142 UTC. The event was produced from newly numbered Region 2087 near the SE limb of the solar disk. Short lived impacts to HF communications should be expected. The flare was short lived in duration and initial analysis does not favor an additional associated coronal mass ejection (CME).  More analysis is underway at this time, so stay tuned for more details.

 


2014-06-10 12:30   R3 (X2) Solar Flare

An R3 (NOAA Scale - Strong) Solar Flare (X2.2) was observed this morning at 10/1142 UTC. The event was produced from newly numbered Region 2087 near the SE limb of the solar disk. The flare was short lived in duration and initial analysis does not favor an associated coronal mass ejection (CME).  However, more analysis is underway at this time. Stay tuned for more details.

 


2014-06-08 12:51   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming (Updated)

A coronal mass ejection from a filament eruption on June 4thdrove G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming in the early hours of June 8th.  Storming has since tapered off but continued low-level effects could persist for the next 12-24 hours.  The bulk of the responsible eruption looked to be well off the Sun-Earth line so this level of storming was not expected. 

Also, there are several regions that have shown some growth in size and complexity over the last couple of days.  So far only R1 (Minor) radio blackout activity has been observed from these regions but stay tuned for updates.


2014-06-08 12:44   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming (Updated)

A coronal mass ejection from a filament eruption on June 4thdrove G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming in the early hours of June 8th.  Storming has since tapered off but continued low-level effects could continue for the next 12-24 hours.  The bulk of the responsible eruption looked to be well off the Sun-Earth line so this level of storming was not expected. 

Also, there are several regions that have shown some growth in size and complexity over the last couple of days.  So far only R1 (Minor) radio blackout activity has been observed from these regions but stay tuned for updates.


2014-06-08 06:46   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

A coronal mass ejection from a filament eruption on June 4thhas arrived and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed as a result.  This eruption looked to be well off the Sun-Earth line so this level of storming was not expected.  There is also a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream expected shortly that may be compounding the effects.  The disturbed conditions are expected to continue in the near term and enhanced auroral displays are likely at higher latitudes. Check out the Ovation forecast for the latest auroral conditions at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Also, there are several regions that have shown some growth in size and complexity over the last couple of days.  So far only R1 (Minor) radio blackout activity has been observed from these regions, but stay tuned for updates as the potential for continued activity is there.

 


2014-04-25 04:52   A Parting Shot from 2035

A Radio Blackout reaching the R3 (Strong) level peaked at 00:27 UT on April 25 (that would be 8:27pm on April 24 US EDT).  It erupted from NOAA active region 2035, which a week earlier had managed an R1 (Minor) storm.  Region 2035 is rotating out of view and won't pose any danger for much longer, but could in the immediate future.  Given the time of day of the eruption, the most common impacts are likely to be high frequency communications in use over the Pacific Ocean and the Eastern Pacific Rim. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-25 01:34   A Parting Shot from 2035?

A Radio Blackout reaching the R3 (Strong) level peaked at 00:27 UT on March 25 (that would be 8:27pm on March 24 US EDT).  It erupted from NOAA active region 2035, which a week earlier had managed an R1 (Minor) storm.  Region 2035 is rotating out of view and won't pose any danger for much longer, but could in the immediate future.  Given the time of day of the eruption, the most common impacts are likely to be high frequency communications in use over the Pacific Ocean and the Eastern Pacific Rim. Stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-21 03:43   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The minor (G1) geomagnetic storming  that occurred on April 20 is winding down with activity solidly below the peak levels.  Isolated periods of activity below minor remain possible, but everything should be back to quiet by mid-day on April 21.  The S1 (Minor) radiation storm that occurred as a result of the eruption on the 18th continues a slow decay toward background levels.  The regions that drove this activity are becoming less threatening and slowly rotating out of view so continued activity is becoming less likely.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-20 18:46   Geomagnetic Storming Underway

Earth is under the combined influence of a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) stemming from solar activity on the 17th and 18th.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming has been observed but G2 (Moderate) storming is still possible on the 20th with storming continuing through the 21st.  Additionally, the S1 (Minor) radiation storm that occurred as a result of the eruption 18th is currently below the event threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  The regions that drove this activity are slowly rotating out of view so continued activity is becoming less likely.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-20 12:37   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected (Updated)

The first of the two expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, with the arrival of the second still expected in the near term.  These events, stemming from solar activity on the 17th and 18th, are expected to drive G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming on the 20th with G1 (Minor) storming continuing through the 21st.  Additionally, the S1 (Minor) radiation storm that occurred as a result of the eruption on the 18th is currently below the event threshold but may see an enhancement back over threshold with the arrival of these CMEs.  The regions that drove this activity are slowly rotating out of view, so continued activity is becoming less and less likely.  Updates here as this geomagnetic storm unfolds.


2014-04-20 12:33   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected (Updated)

The first of the two expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has arrived, with the arrival of the second still expected in the near term.  These events, stemming from solar activity on the 17th and 18th, are expected to drive G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming on the 20th with G1 (Minor) storming continuing through the 21st.  Additionally, the S1 (Minor) radiation storm that occurred as a result of the eruption 18th is currently below the event threshold but may see an enhancement back over threshold with the arrival of these CMEs.  The regions that drove this activity are slowly rotating out of view, so continued activity is becoming less and less likely.  Updates here as this geomagnetic storm unfolds.


2014-04-19 18:06   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

Region 2036 produced an impulsive R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1303 UTC (9:03 a.m. EDT) on April 18th.  Given the coronal mass ejection associated with this event and another observed on the 17th, the combined effects are expected to drive G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming on the 20th with G1 (Minor) storming continuing through the 21st.  Additionally, the S1 (Minor) radiation storm that occurred as a result of this eruption continues.  There are several regions on the disk with the potential for continued activity so stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-18 20:28   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Activity (Updated)

Region 2036 produced an impulsive R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1303 UTC (9:03 a.m. EDT) on April 18th.  Given the coronal mass ejection associated with this event and another observed on the 17th, the combined effects are expected to drive G1 (Minor) storming on the 20th and 21st.  Additionally, a S1 (Minor) radiation storm is in progress as a result of this eruption.  There are several regions on the disk with the potential for continued activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-18 15:53   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Activity

Region 2036 produced an impulsive R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1303 UTC (9:03 a.m. EDT) on April 18th.  Forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to assess the coronal mass ejection associated with this event to see what, if any, geomagnetic storming will be expected as a result.  Additionally, a S1 (Minor) radiation storm is in progress as a result of this eruption.  There are several regions on the disk with the potential for continued activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-18 13:53   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Activity

Region 2036 produced an impulsive R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1303 UTC (9:03 a.m. EDT) on April 18th.  Forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to assess the coronal mass ejection associated with this event to see what, if any, geomagnetic storming will be expected as a result.  Additionally, there are several regions on the disk with the potential for continued activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2014-04-03 19:57   Minor Geomagnetic Storming Forecast for April 4-5

SWPC has issued a Watch for Minor (G1) Geomagnetic storming, expected to occur late on April 4th and through April 5th.  This is due to a solar filament eruption on April 1st and a coronal mass ejection related to the previously mentioned Moderate (R2) Solar Flare of April 2nd.  The latest WSA-Enlil model run indicates both eruptions will merge and arrive late on the 4th.  Aurora should be limited to very high latitudes, but it's worth keeping an eye on our aurora forecast model known as Ovation.  Updates will be posted here as things develop.


2014-04-02 15:42   R2 (Moderate) Activity

Region 2027 produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1405 UTC (10:05 a.m. EDT) on April 2nd.  The coronal mass ejection from this event is off the Sun-Earth line but analysis continues to see if any glancing blow can be expected.  Meanwhile, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is still expected on April 2nd as a result of the R3 (Strong) event of the 29th.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-03-31 03:21   R3 (Strong) Event from Region 2017 (Updated)

Region 2017 produced an impulsive or short-lived R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1748 UTC (1:48 p.m. EDT) on March 29th.  There are several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in play at this time, including the one from this event, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on April 2nd as a result.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-03-30 13:58   R3 (Strong) Event from Region 2017 (Updated)

Region 2017 produced an impulsive or short-lived R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1748 UTC (1:48 p.m. EDT) on March 29th.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event, but based on direction and speed, significant storming is NOT expected.  There are several CMEs being modeled at this time (the one from this event and several others) and low-level geomagnetic storming is expected in the April 1st – 2nd timeframe as a result.  That forecast will be refined as analysis continues.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-03-29 19:22   R3 (Strong) Event from Region 2017

Region 2017 produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1748 UTC (1:48 p.m. EDT) on March 29th.  This event was very impulsive or short-lived and impulsive events are not generally associated with significant coronal mass ejections.  Forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to see what, if anything may be expected for geomagnetic storming as a result.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-03-13 13:55   Region 1996 refuses to go quietly (Updated)...

At 2234 UTC on March 12 (6:34 pm EDT), this region produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout as it approached the west limb.  Initial analysis indicates there was likely NOT a CME associated with this flare due to the impulsive nature and lack of substantial radio signatures.  Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-03-13 03:38   Region 1996 refuses to go quietly...

At 2234 UTC on March 12 (6:34 pm EDT), this region produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout as it approached the west limb.  Initial analysis indicates there was likely NOT a CME associated with this flare due to the impulsive nature and lack of substantial radio signatures.  We also are seeing G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels due to several hours of sustained negative Bz, slightly elevated total magnetic field, and a slight rise in the solar wind speeds (all solar wind conditions that can result in storming). Conditions are expected to last into the morning but subside as the US enters the daylight hours. Stay tuned here for updates.


2014-03-01 04:44   Solar Radiation Storm Continues

The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm that occurred as a result of the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event of February 25 is still in progress but values should slowly return to background over the next couple of days, barring further activity.  Region 1990, the region responsible for this event, continues to harbor some magnetic complexity and further eruptions are possible.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-28 16:38   Activity Update

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming was observed overnight with the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event of February 25.  Since then, storming has subsided and the bulk of this geomagnetic disturbance is over.  Also, the S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm saw a respectable enhancement with the arrival of this CME, as expected, but values should slowly return to background over the next several days.  Region 1990, the region responsible for this activity, continues to harbor some magnetic complexity and further eruptions are certainly possible.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-28 01:06   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming (Updated)

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming was observed with the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event of February 25.  Since then, lower level geomagnetic storming has continued and is still possible in the near term.  Also, the S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm that peaked with the arrival of the CME should now continue its slow decay barring further activity.  Region 1990, the region responsible for this activity, continues to harbor some magnetic complexity and further eruptions are certainly possible.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-27 20:21   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming is ongoing now as a result of the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event of February 25.  This CME was not headed directly at Earth but we are experiencing some impact from the glancing blow, and slightly stronger than initially expected.  This disturbance could persist for the next 24 hours or so.  Also, the S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm continues with values peaking, as expected, with the arrival of this CME.  Region 1990, the region responsible for this activity, continues to harbor some magnetic complexity and the potential for further activity.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-26 16:52   R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout (Updated)

Region 1990 (the return of old Region 1967) produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout at 0049 UTC on February 25 (7:49 pm Eastern on February 24).  Although impressive, the source of this event is well off the Sun-Earth line and the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  As a result, only G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected for February 27.  Additionally, a S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is in progress but is now leveling off with values just above the S1 event threshold.  This region will continue to rotate into a better position to affect Earth over the next week or so.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-25 14:55   R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout (Updated)

Newly numbered Region 1990 (the return of old Region 1967), just now rotating into view, produced an R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout at 0049 UTC on February 25 (7:49 pm Eastern on February 24).  Although impressive, the source of this event is well off the Sun-Earth line and the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  Analysis continues to determine what, if any, geomagnetic impact this will have.  Additionally, a slow-rising S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is in progress as a result of this eruption.  This region will continue to rotate into a better position to affect Earth over the next week or so.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-25 01:26   R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout

Newly numbered Region 1990 (the return of old Region 1967), just now rotating into view, produced an R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout at 0049 UTC on February 25th (7:49 pm Eastern on February 24th).  Although impressive, the source of this event is well off the Sun-Earth line so the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event should not be headed directly at Earth.  This region will continue to rotate into a better position to affect Earth over the next week or so.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-20 22:39   Things are calm for now...

The last two nights (in Universal Time) threw up surprise after surprise.  Model runs indicate more activity is expected tonight, so SWPC has issued a Watch for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming.  We've had additional eruptions from the Sun, with the latest model runs showing nothing significant, but low level storming may be on the cards for the weekend.  As always, stay tuned here for updates.


2014-02-20 09:39   10 MeV Proton event from M3 Flare

An M3 X-ray flare (NOAA Scale R1-Minor radio blackout) occurred at 20/0756 UTC (20/0356 EST) from Region 1976, located near the solar west limb. This flare also produced a 10 MeV proton event that exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 20/0855 UTC (0455 EST). Potential Impacts from the proton event include: Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.  We are still experiencing elevated geomagnetic storm levels (Currently G2-Moderate) with enhancements likely to continue for the next few hours. Tune in here for updates.


2014-02-20 04:20   A sting in the tail?

Looks like we called it a bit too early.  We're seeing low level geomagnetic storms and have issued a warning for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms valid until 10:00UT (05:00 US EST).  Even higher level geomagnetic storming is possible, with both solar wind speed and magnetic field strength at elevated levels.  Stay tuned here for updates as this period of interesting space weather continues.

 


2014-02-19 20:58   G2 (Moderate) Storming Over

The coronal mass ejection (CME) that arrived very early this morning, peaked at the G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm level and is pretty much over.  It has limited capacity to drive any more storming.  However, model runs indicate we can expect another CME to arrive late tomorrow (19:00 UT, 14:00 US EST).  This second CME is not forecast to generate any significant geomagnetic storms, with the peak expected to fall below the G1 (Minor) level.

 


2014-02-19 05:08   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Underway

Earth is currently under the influence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed.  This is likely the result of what was expected to be a near miss from an event originally observed on the 14th.  This CME has a fairly well-organized magnetic field structure so continued G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storming is certainly possible.  Stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds.

 


2014-02-19 04:04   Geomagnetic Storming Underway

Earth is currently under the influence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and geomagnetic storming is ongoing now.  This is likely the result of what was expected to be a near miss from an event originally observed on the 14th or 15th.  This CME has a fairly well-organized magnetic field structure so G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storming is certainly possible.  Stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds.

 


2014-02-16 16:31   CME effects subsiding

Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming that occurred as a result of the coronal mass ejection passage on 15 Feb is unlikely to continue as we approach the tail end of this event.  Meanwhile, SWPC forecasters continue to monitor the Sun and we will post messages in this space as activity warrants.

 


2014-02-16 04:36   Expect continuing minor geomagnetic storming

The coronal mass ejection (CME) that arrived yesterday is continuing to drive minor (G1) geomagnetic storms that can be expected for quite some time.  The magnetic field shows the CME  has the potential for a good punch, but it doesn't seem to want to use it.  Probably for the best, as we're only a day past full moon and it would be hard to see the aurora anyway.  If we see anything change, we'll update you right here.

 


2014-02-15 15:19   (G2) geomagnetic storm likely today

The first of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arrived at 1310 UT (8:10am ET), a bit late, and with a modest impact, but with enough potential power to still warrant the G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm forecast.  All signs point to more CME activity on the way so we’ll be keeping a watch for that.  Meanwhile, back on the Sun, the likelihood of additional eruptions is diminishing.  Stay tuned for more details.

 


2014-02-12 18:28    Minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms possible later this week

A forecast Watch has been issued.  G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are forecast to begin on 14 February, and G2 (moderate) Storms are forecast for 15 February. This activity is anticipated due to the combined effects of three coronal mass ejections (CMEs); two of which were associated with R1 (minor) solar flares from Region 1974. All three CMEs left the Sun separately at low to moderate speeds over the past 36 hours, and all had trajectories with at least a partial component moving towards the magnetosphere protecting Earth.  It is the interaction between CMEs and Earth’s magnetosphere which can cause geomagnetic storms - as well as possibly producing fantastic auroras farther south than usual. Stay tuned for more details.


2014-02-09 00:09   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming has been observed as expected from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream currently affecting Earth.  Continued low-level storming is possible in the near term as Earth remains under the influence of this high speed solar wind.  Meanwhile, Regions 1967 and 1968 are making a quiet exit, with no truly significant activity occurring from this pair as they made their way across the visible disk.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-02-06 21:44   G1 Watch Issued for 8 Feb

A Forecast Watch has been issued for Minor Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA Scale G1 - minor) on 8 February 2014. This activity is anticipated due to a large coronal hole, which is rotating into a position favorable to buffet the Earth's magnetic field with elevated solar winds, in conjunction with a possible glancing blow from a well-timed, but off angle CME that was observed leaving the Sun on 4 February.  A Forecast Warning will be issued if activity becomes imminent.

Standby here for updates, or check out our Facebook page.


2014-02-03 22:51   Space Weather Update

Regions 1967 and 1968 (old 1944 and 1946) have continued to move across the solar disk and are now positioned near center meridian. So far this rotation, the duo has only produced NOAA Scale R1 and R2 level flares.  We’ll continue to watch closely for signs of additional CMEs and Solar Radiation Storms, as these regions are now in more favorable positions to potentially affect Earth. Standby for more details, or check out our Facebook page.


2014-02-03 20:56   Space Weather Update

Regions 1967 and 1968 (old 1944 and 1946) have continued to move across the solar disk and are now positioned near center meridian. So far this rotation, the duo has only produced NOAA Scale R1 level flares. There has been no sign of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from 30 January.  We’ll continue to watch closely for signs of additional CMEs and Solar Radiation Storms, as these regions are now in more favorable positions to potentially affect Earth. Standby for more details, or check out our Facebook page.


2014-02-03 20:44   Space Weather Update

Regions 1967 and 1968 (old 1944 and 1946) have continued to move across the solar disk and are now positioned near center meridian. So far this rotation, the duo has only produced NOAA Scale R1 level flares. There has been no sign of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from 30 January.  We’ll continue to watch closely for signs of additional CMEs or Solar Radiation Storms, as these regions are now in more favorable positions to potentially affect Earth. Standby for more details, or check out our Facebook page (here).


2014-02-03 14:40   Space Weather Update

Region 1967 continues to be a steady producer of R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout Activity.  This region is the return of Region 1944 from last rotation, and given the fact that it has retained respectable size and complexity, it merits some attention as it makes its way across the visible disk.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-31 13:42   R2 (Moderate) Flare Activity, G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

Region 1967 has taken Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity up into R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) range.  This region is the return of Region 1944 from last rotation, and given the fact that it has retained respectable size and complexity, it merits some attention as it makes its way across the visible disk.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R2 event of January 30th, and while not headed directly toward Earth, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible mid-day or later on February 2nd as a result of the expected glancing blow.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-31 00:48   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout Activity (Updated)

Region 1967, the respectably large region that rotated into view a few days ago, has taken Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity up into the R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) range.  This region is the return of Region 1944 from last rotation, and given the fact that it has retained respectable size and complexity, it merits some attention as it makes its way across the visible disk.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R2 event of January 30th, and while not headed directly toward Earth, some level of geomagnetic storming is likely late on the 1st and into the 2nd.  Forecasters are analyzing that event now to refine the timing and intensity of that geomagnetic storm prediction.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-30 16:29   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout Activity

Region 1967, the respectably large region that rotated into view a few days ago, has taken Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity up into R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) range.  This region is the return of Region 1944 from last rotation, and given the fact that it has retained respectable size and complexity, it merits some attention as it makes its way across the visible disk.  So far, any associated coronal mass ejections have been well off the Sun-Earth line, but stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-30 16:25   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout Activity

Region 1967, the respectably large region that rotated into view a few days ago, has taken Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity up into R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) range.  This region is the return of Region 1944 from last rotation, and given the fact that it has retained respectable size and complexity, it merits some attention as it makes its way across the visible disk.  So far any associated coronal mass ejections have been well off the Sun-Earth line, but stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-11 23:35   Solar Radiation Storm Winding Down

The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is now below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.  This event will continue its slow return to background levels barring further activity.  Meanwhile, Region 1944 has gone quiet, with no significant flaring observed since January 7th.  This region continues to exhibit signs of weakening, but some threat of significant activity still remains.  Updates here as conditions warrant.


2014-01-11 00:48   Solar Radiation Storm Winding Down

The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is nearing the S1 (Minor) event threshold.  This event will continue its slow return background levels over the next 24 hours, barring further activity.  Meanwhile, Region 1944 has gone quiet, with no significant flaring observed since January 7th.  This region continues to exhibit signs of weakening, but some threat of significant activity still remains.  Updates here as conditions warrant.


2014-01-10 12:02   Space Weather Update

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event from January 7th appears to have only had minor effects on Earth.  Initial indications of a weak structure held true for the remainder of the period and the anticipated geomagnetic storming never materialized.  While increased activity is still possible, it now appears improbable. The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm remains near the S2 (Moderate) threshold, but continues its trend towards background levels.  Region 1944 had no significant flaring and continues to exhibit signs of decay.  Updates here as conditions warrant.


2014-01-10 01:15   Modest Start to Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event from January 7th is now affecting Earth but the resulting geomagnetic storm is off to a modest start, with no substantial storming occurring thus far.  The initial structure of this CME has been relatively weak in strength, but that said, it generally takes on the order of 24 hours or more for the full event to transpire and stronger storming is certainly still possible.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, still just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold, continues it slow decay toward background levels.  Additionally, Region 1944 is showing some signs of decay and no significant flaring has been observed in the last 48 hours.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-09 20:02   CME Has Arrived

The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It’s too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.  Updates here as this event unfolds.


2014-01-09 12:36   Awaiting CME Arrival

The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm peaked briefly just above the S3 (Strong) threshold but is now in decay and currently at S2 (Moderate) levels.  Enhancement back across the S3 level is possible with the anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. The CME, originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, is now slightly overdue.  However, pre-arrival signatures from EPAM data on the ACE spacecraft still show this transient en route. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on January 9 and 10.  Updates here as this event unfolds.


2014-01-09 00:03   S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress

The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.


2014-01-08 12:30   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9 and 10.  The source of this disturbance is a fairly fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7.  Full evaluation and modeling of this event has refined the forecast and indicates a fairly direct interaction with Earth, with the WSA-Enlil model putting arrival mid-morning UTC on January 9 (very early morning EST).  In addition, the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event is currently near, but below, the S3 (Strong) threshold, with values leveling off at this time.  At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic.  Updates here as this event progresses.


2014-01-08 05:48   CME Impacts Expected January 9

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today, January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch here for more as conditions warrant.
 


2014-01-07 22:11   CME Impacts Expected January 9

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch here for more as conditions warrant.
 


2014-01-07 22:09   CME Impacts Expected January 9

SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch for here more as conditions warrant.
 


2014-01-07 18:37   R3 (Strong) Event from Region 1944

Region 1944, the respectably large region now near center disk, produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7th, following a R2 (Moderate) event earlier in the day.  Forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to assess the coronal mass ejections associated with these events.  Once that imagery is available and forecasters are able to model these eruptions, a geomagnetic storm forecast will be forthcoming.  This latest eruption could also keep the S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm that was in decay in progress.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-07 15:12   R2 (Moderate) Activity, CME Arrival...

Region 1944, the respectably large region now at center disk, produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1013 UTC (5:13 a.m. EST) on January 7th, its first R2 event since rotating into view nearly a week ago.  Although forecasters are currently awaiting imagery to see the coronal mass ejection (CME) that may have been associated with this event, a significant CME is not expected given the short-lived nature of this flare and the lack of other indicators of a significant CME (radio bursts, etc.). 

Additionally, the arrival of the CME associated with a R1 (Minor) event late on the 4th has been observed at the ACE spacecraft.  This disturbance is expected to bring G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming for the 7th.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-07 14:34   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout Activity

Region 1944, the respectably large region now at center disk, produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1013 UTC (5:13 a.m. EST) on January 7th, its first R2 event since rotating into view nearly a week ago.  Although forecasters are currently awaiting imagery to see the coronal mass ejection (CME) that may have been associated with this event, a significant CME is not expected given the short-lived nature of this flare and the lack of other indicators of a significant CME (radio bursts, etc.).  Meanwhile, the S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm that started early on the 6th continues a slow decline and is approaching the S1 event threshold at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.


2014-01-06 21:05   S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm in Decline

The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm that started early on the 6th appears to have peaked and is now starting a slow decline.  This event was the result of a solar flare from Region 1936, now a couple days behind the limb.  Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, continues to make its way across the Sun and is slowly rotating toward center disk.  Region 1944 has only produced R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity to date, but the potential for larger, more significant activity is certainly there.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a R1 (Minor) event late on the 4th and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected mid-day on the 7th as a result.  Updates here as conditions warrant.


2014-01-06 11:18   Space Weather Update

A solar radiation storm (S1-minor) is currently in progress.

At 0755 UTC (0255 EST) a solar prominence erupted on the west limb just south of the equator.  The eruption was associated with a flare, most likely from Old Region 1936, which rotated off the visible solar disk on January 4th.

The flare sent high energy particles towards Earth, which was well-connected magnetically to the source. A minor (S1 on the NOAA scales) radiation storm resulted. The event has peaked at the ACE spacecraft and the flux values are on their way down. They're expected to remain elevated for the next 12-24 hours. We'll be able to refine the prediction as more data becomes available.


2014-01-06 10:31   Space Weather Update

A solar radiation storm (S1-minor) is currently in progress.

At 0755 UTC (0255 EST) a solar prominence erupted on the west limb just south of the equator.

The eruption sent high energy particles towards Earth, which was well-connected magnetically to the source. A minor (S1 on the NOAA scales) radiation storm resulted. The event has peaked at the ACE spacecraft and the flux values are on their way down. They're expected to remain elevated for the next 12-24 hours. We'll be able to refine the prediction as more data becomes available.


2014-01-05 21:26   Space Weather Update

Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, continues to make its way across the Sun and is slowly rotating toward center disk.  Region 1944 has only produced R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity to date, but the potential for larger, more significant activity is certainly there.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a R1 (Minor) event late on the 4th and the initial forecast is for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on the 7th as a result.  Analysis of that event continues at this time to refine that forecast.  Updates here as conditions warrant. 


2014-01-05 00:31    R1 (Minor) Activity Continues

 Region 1936, just now at the limb, has continued to produce R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity as it rotates out of view.  Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, continues to make its way across the Sun and is slowly rotating toward center disk.  Region 1944 has only produced R1 (Minor) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity to date, but the potential for larger, more significant activity is certainly there.  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a R1 (Minor) event late on the 4th, but that CME doesn’t appear to be headed directly at Earth.  Forecasters await further imagery to determine, what, if any geomagnetic storming would be expected.  Updates here as conditions warrant. 


2014-01-03 16:40    Keeping a Close Eye on Region 1944...

Region 1936, the region responsible for the recent R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity, is now approaching the limb and will rotate out of view shortly.  Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, is now clearly visible on the disc.  Region 1944 has been relatively stable in size and shows a relatively modest magnetic complexity, but that said, a region of this size certainly has the potential to produce significant activity.  Updates here as conditions warrant. 

 


2014-01-03 16:37    Keeping a Close Eye on Region 1944...

Region 1936, the region responsible for the recent R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity is now approaching the limb and will rotate out of view shortly.  Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, is now clearly visible on the disc.  Region 1944 has been relatively stable in size and shows a relatively modest magnetic complexity, but that said, a region of this size certainly has the potential to produce significant activity.  Updates here as conditions warrant. 

 


2014-01-02 21:34   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming

The solar wind is now showing signs of a high-speed stream, resulting in G1 (Minor) conditions. Back at the Sun, both Regions 1936 (departing) and 1944 (arriving) remain potent and possibly eruptive. Watch for news of changing conditions here.

 


2014-01-02 21:30   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming

The solar wind is now showing signs of a high-speed solar wind stream, resulting in G1 (Minor) conditions. Back at the Sun, both Regions 1936 (departing) and 1944 (arriving) remain potent and possibly eruptive. Watch for news of changing conditions here.

 


2014-01-02 15:33   R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Activity

Region 1936, although relatively modest in size, has produced two R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackouts to date.  Both of these events were relatively impulsive or short-lived, so no significant radiation or geomagnetic storm activity is currently expected as a result.  Another fairly large sunspot group, Region 1944, is just now rotating into view.  Between these two regions, continued activity is certainly possible.  Stay tuned for updates.

 


2014-01-01 21:14   Recent Flares (R2 - Moderate) and other activity

Region 1936, although relatively modest in size, has produced two R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackouts to date.  Both of these events were relatively impulsive or short-lived, so no significant radiation or geomagnetic storm activity is currently expected as a result.  Another fairly large sunspot group, Region 1944, is just now rotating into view.  Between these two regions, continued activity is certainly possible.  Unrelated to this flare activity, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on January 2nd from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Stay tuned for updates.

 


2013-12-08 15:06   Moderate Geomagnetic Storming Observed

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming was observed overnight with the onset of a stronger-than-expected coronal hole high speed stream.  Storming levels have decreased as the initial structure of this feature has passed, but low-level geomagnetic storming is still possible as Earth remains under the influence of high speed solar wind.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-12-08 02:37   Moderate Geomagnetic Storming Underway

Earth is now under the influence of a stronger than expected coronal hole high speed stream.  G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed and continued low-level storming is possible over the next 24 hours as Earth remains under the influence of this high speed solar wind.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-11-20 00:36   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout (Updated)

Region 1893, now nearing west limb, produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 1026 UTC (5:26 a.m. EST) on November 19. This impulsive flare did have an associated coronal mass ejection (CME), but it was not directed at Earth, so no corresponding geomagnetic storm is expected.


2013-11-19 14:43   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1893, now nearing west limb, produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 1026 UTC (5:26 a.m. EST). This impulsive flare may have an associated CME, but early indications are it will not have a significant impact on the geomagnetic field. Updates here.


2013-11-10 22:21   No Storming Forecast

Forecasters do not expect any Geomagnetic Storm activity from the eruption earlier on Nov. 10.


2013-11-10 05:45   Another R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Hyperactive Region 1890 yielded another R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0514 UTC on November 10 (00:14 a.m. EST). Also impulsive, it is likely to have no earth-directed component if there is a CME. Forecasters will run the propagation model when imagery is available. More here when that information is accessible.


2013-11-08 22:25   CME Likely Not A Threat (Update)

Forecasters have concluded that no Geomagnetic Storm activity is in the offing from any of the earlier CMEs. Region 1890, now very close to the center of the solar disk, remains potent. Watch for more eruptions from that prime location, raising again the issue of earthbound CMEs.


2013-11-08 15:03   CME Likely Not A Threat

Region 1890 generated an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0426 UTC on November 8 (11:26 p.m. EST November 7). Incomplete imagery of the event indicates a CME occurred, but seems to be headed south. Forecasters will be continuing their analysis as more images become available. Those findings will appear here.


2013-11-08 05:14   Impulsive Flare

Region 1890 generated an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0426 UTC on November 8 (11:26 p.m. EST November 7). Forecasters are looking for indications of a CME, although impulsive flares typically are not associated with significant CMEs. Watch here as more data become available.


2013-11-06 16:42   No Geomagnetic Storming Forecast

Post analysis of the CME associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2212 UTC on November 5 (5:12 p.m. EST) has the track of the ejecta going south of the ecliptic plane.  No geomagnetic disturbance is expected from this event. However, Region 1890 remains potent and well-positioned, so keep tabs of activity here.


2013-11-06 05:09   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout (Updated)

Region 1890, sitting away from the Sun-Earth line in the eastern solar hemisphere, produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2212 UTC on November 5 (5:12 p.m. EST).  There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this short-lived solar flare, but the bulk of this CME appears to be headed well away from Earth.  Imagery is still coming in, though, and analysis continues to see if any glancing blow can be expected. 


2013-11-05 22:52   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1890, sitting away from the sun-earth line in the eastern solar hemisphere, produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2212 UTC on November 5 (5:12 p.m. EST). Forecasters are analyzing imagery for an associated CME.  More here later as to their findings and possible geomagnetic effects.


2013-10-31 04:26   Awaiting the CME

Indicators still suggest the pending passage of a CME. Forecasters anticipate G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions for October 31. Watch for the shock here.


2013-10-30 13:58   Geomagnetic Storm Coming

The forerunner protons seen in the solar wind data indicate a shock coming from the sun. The shock, out in front of a CME, is expected October 31. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions should prevail then. Back at the sun, relative calm since the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout yesterday.


2013-10-30 13:57   Geomagnetic Storm Coming

2013-10-30 13:53 UTC  Geomagnetic Storm Coming

The forerunner protons seen in the solar wind data indicate a shock coming from the sun. The shock, out in front of a CME, is expected October 31. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions should prevail then. Back at the sun, relative calm since the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout yesterday.


2013-10-30 13:54   Parting Shot...

Region 1875, just now making it around the west limb, produced a R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2154 UTC on October 29 (5:54 p.m. EDT). Given the location of this event, the coronal mass ejection it produced is not headed toward Earth. The rest of the regions on the disk are showing some signs of decay and activity has decreased somewhat in response.  G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on October 31. Updates here.


2013-10-30 13:53   Geomagnetic Storm Coming

The forerunner protons seen in the solar wind data indicate a shock coming from the sun. The shock, out in front of a CME, is expected October 31. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions should prevail then. Back at the sun, relative calm since the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout yesterday.


2013-10-29 22:03   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1875, now making west limb passage, apparently produced at R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2154 UTC on October 29 (5:54 p.m. EDT). The analysis of the event is in the early stages just now. Watch for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity on October 31. Updates here.


2013-10-29 15:47   Waiting for the CME

More normal conditions today. The eruptive centers at the sun have been either stable or decaying, and the issue now is the expected G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm on October 31. The enhanced proton flux lingers, but should slowly abate. Updates as warranted here.


2013-10-28 20:08   Yet Another CME

Somnolent Region 1882 reawakened suddenly with an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout at 1515 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) today, October 28. An earth-directed CME left  the sun in the eruption, now expected to bring G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels on 31 October. The enhanced proton flux over the past 12 hours continues to register below S1 (Minor) levels. More here as things occur.


2013-10-28 14:52   Continued Activity...

Region 1875 produced a R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0203 UTC on October 28 (10:03 p.m. EDT October 27). Solar Radiation Storm levels are continuing a slow climb out of background levels as a result but remain below the S1 (Minor) threshold at this time.  The CME associated with this R3 event is still being assessed, but some geomagnetic storming on or around October 30 is likely based on initial model runs.  The magnitude of that storm is also still being assessed, but initial observations and modeling indicate severe storming is NOT expected.  Another R2 (Moderate) event followed the R3, again from Region 1875, but the CME associated with this later event does not look to be Earth-directed.  G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions are still expected in the near term from an earlier CME.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-10-28 11:08   Continued Activity...

Region 1875 produced a R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0203 UTC on October 28 (10:03 p.m. EDT October 27). Solar Radiation Storm levels are continuing a slow climb out of background levels as a result but remain below the S1 (Minor) threshold at this time.  The CME associated with this R3 event is still being assessed, but some geomagnetic storming on or around the October 30 is likely based on initial model runs.  The magnitude of that storm is also still being assessed, but initial observations and modeling indicate severe storming is NOT expected.  Another R2 (Moderate) event followed the R3, again from Region 1875, but the CME associated with this later event does not look to be Earth-directed.  G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions are still expected in the near term from an earlier CME.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-10-28 02:41   Strong Flare, Radiation Storm Possible

Region 1875 produced at R3(Strong) Radio Blackout at 0203 UTC on October 28 (10:03 p.m. EDT October 27). The location of the flare is a prime position for a Solar Radiation Storm to follow promptly; forecasters are expecting an enhancement soon. Also, G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions are due in the next 24 hours from an earlier CME. Watch here for more.


2013-10-27 00:20   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Expected October 28 - R1 (Minor) Activity Continues

R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout activity continues with the bulk of events coming from Region 1882, the producer of the R3 (Strong) events from October 25.  A host of coronal mass ejections have been observed over the last several days, but to date, only G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are predicted for October 28 as a result.  These active regions are relatively stable in size and complexity, so the potential for continued activity remains into the foreseeable future.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-10-26 15:07   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Expected October 28 - R1 (Minor) Activity Continues

R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout activity continued overnight with contributions coming from all of the significant active regions currently visible on the Sun.  A host of coronal mass ejections have been observed over the last several days, but to date, only G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are predicted for October 28th as a result.  These active regions are relatively stable in size and complexity, so the potential for continued activity remains into the foreseeable future.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-10-26 00:11   Geomagnetic Storm Possible October 28

The recent spectacular eruptions from Region 1882 belie the fact that the geomagnetic field is to be unaffected, at least for the next few days. Forecasters expect impacts from the first of the CMEs in about 72 hours, but things can change given the volatile nature of the three active centers on the solar disk. Possible G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels are forecast. Updates here as conditions unfold.


2013-10-25 16:05   UPDATE -- Second R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1882 produced another R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, its second in 8 hours, at 1503 UTC (11:03 a.m. EDT). No indication of a CME as yet, but as with the earlier event, it would be unlikely to cause geomagnetic storm activity from this launch position at the sun. Still awaiting the impacts of CME activity earlier this week that may bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming today. Updates as conditions warrant.


2013-10-25 08:55   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout from East Limb

A spot group just on the visible disk, dubbed Region 1882, generated an impulsive R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0801 UTC (4:01 a.m. EDT) on October 25. So far off the sun-earth line, if a CME was associated (waiting for imagery), it is not expected to be geo-effective. Still awaiting the impacts of CME activity earlier this week that may bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming soon. Updates as conditions warrant.


2013-10-25 08:51   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout from East Limb

A spot group just on the visible disk, dubbed Region 1882, generated an impusive R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 0801 UTC (4:01 a.m. EDT) on October 25. So far off the sun-earth line, if a CME was associated (waiting for imagery), it is not expected to be geo-effective. Still awaiting the the impacts of CME activity earlier this week that may bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming soon. Updates as conditions warrant.


2013-10-24 16:12   Geomagnetic Storm Expected -- In Two Parts

The effects of CME activity earlier this week are expected to bring G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity on October 25. This disturbance is predicted to be short-lived, with a lapse to precede the passage of another CME from the recent R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout/CME event from Region 1877 early on October 24 (UTC). Another spate of G1 (Minor) levels is then anticipated for October 28. Updates as conditions warrant.


2013-10-24 02:56   Head On Eruption

Region 1877, very close to the Sun-Earth line, produced an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 0030 UTC on 24 October (8:30 p.m. EDT 23 October). There are indications of a Coronal Mass Ejection, forecasters are checking. Watch for updates of possible Geomagnetic Storm activity from this event. An earlier rash of CMEs from the past few days, none nearly as energetic as this one, may bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming on October 25.


2013-10-24 02:52   Head On Eruption

Region 1877, very close to the Sun-Earth line, produced an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 0030 UTC on 24 October (8:30 EDT 23 October). There are indications of a Coronal Mass Ejection, forecasters are checking. Watch for updates of possible Geomagnetic Storm activity from this event. An earlier rash of CMEs from the past few days, none nearly as energetic as this one, may bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming on October 25.


2013-10-10 02:17   Solar Activity Possible

More normal solar wind is sweeping past earth now, as the threat of a second pulse is very small. Attention shifts to the solar disk where Region 1865 is poised in the southeast solar quadrant with mixed magnetic fields and the potential for additonal R1(Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares. Keep tabs on its behavior here.


2013-10-09 17:48   Looking For the Next Pulse

The G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm of the early hours on October 9 has weakened, and now forecasters await another shock in the next few hours. Totally unrelated, a new region near the southeast solar limb generated an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout earlier today. That active region  will be earth-facing for the next 11 days or so, possibly fueling additional eruptions from an otherwise quiet sun. Stay tuned.


2013-10-09 01:05   Minor Geomagnetic Storm Occurring

A shock in the solar wind passed earth late on October 8 (UTC) bringing unanticipated G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity.  The brunt of the disturbance is expected through the early hours of October 9 (UTC), then followed by a second pulse later on October 9. Watch for updates here.


2013-10-02 21:19   Geomagnetic Storming Persists

Although the solar wind has returned to more normal conditions, it is still gusting and causing the geomagnetic activity that began early on October 2nd to linger. Category G1 (Minor) conditions are being observed and are possible through 0600 UTC October 3 (2:00 a.m. EDT). The Solar Radiation Storm of the past few days has ended.


2013-10-02 11:56   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

The awaited CME passed the ACE spacecraft around 0100 UTC on October 2 (9:00 p.m. EDT October 1), sooner than forecasters had expected.  G2 (Moderate) levels of storming were observed overnight as a result.  Earth remains under the influence of this CME, so there is likely still more to come.  The shock had very little effect on the current Solar Radiation Storm, still in decline and now below the S1 (Minor) threshold. Stay tuned for updates.


2013-10-02 03:09   Geomagnetic Storm Starts Early

The awaited CME passed the ACE spacecraft around 0100 UTC on October 2 (9:00 p.m. EDT October 1), sooner than forecasters had expected. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming now prevails, with the prospects of G2 (Moderate) levels still to come. The shock had no effect on the current Solar Radiation Storm, still declining through the S1(Minor) category. Aurora watchers in North America may want to check the skies in the next few hours.


2013-10-01 17:40   CME En Route, Expected October 2

Forecasters are monitoring the forerunner solar wind protons streaming ahead of the CME-driven shock that left the Sun early on September 30 UTC (evening hours September 29 EDT). The CME is expected to pass ACE around mid-day UTC (morning hours EDT) on October 2, causing G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions initially, followed on October 3 by G2 (Moderate) levels. The S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm persists. Updates as conditions change.


2013-10-01 13:36   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected (Updated)

A filament eruption and associated low-level solar flare (below the R1, Minor level) occurred late Sunday afternoon, Sep 29th, (start of day Sep 30th UTC) producing a S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm which remains in progress at this time.  The filament eruption resulted in a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).  As a result, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected to commence mid-day on October 2nd with G2 (Moderate) expected on the 3rd, a slight upward revision from initial estimates.  No further activity is expected at this time given the lack of substantial sunspots, but stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds.


2013-10-01 03:31   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

A filament eruption and associated low-level solar flare (below the R1, Minor level) occurred late Sunday afternoon, Sep 29th, (start of day Sep 30th UTC) producing a S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm which remains in progress at this time.  The filament eruption resulted in a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).  As a result, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected mid-day on October 2nd through the 3rd.  No further activity is expected at this time given the lack of substantial sunspots, but stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds.


2013-09-30 20:50   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

A filament eruption and associated low-level solar flare (below the R1, Minor level) occurred late Sunday afternoon, Sep 29th, (start of day Sep 30th UTC) producing a S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm which remains in progress at this time.  The filament eruption resulted in a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).  As a result, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected mid-day on September 2nd through the 3rd.  No further activity is expected at this time given the lack of substantial sunspots, but stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds.


2013-09-30 15:38   Filament Erruption

A filament eruption and associated low-level solar flare (below R1 - Minor) occurred late Sunday afternoon, Sep 29th, (start of day Sep 30th UTC) producing a S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm which remains in progress at this time. The filament eruption resulted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be partially Earth-directed, with the potential to cause minor to moderate geomagnetic storming later this week.  Further analysis of the event is in progress to determine a possible arrival time, intensity, and duration.


2013-09-30 15:09   Filament Erruption

A filament eruption and associated low-level solar flare (below R1 - Minor) occurred late Sunday afternoon, Sep 29th, (start of day Sep 30th UTC) producing a S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm which remains in progress at this time. The filament eruption resulted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be partially Earth-directed, with the potential to cause minor to moderate geomagnetic storming later this week.  Further analysis of the event is in progress to determine a possible arrival time, intensity, and duration.

 

 

 


2013-07-10 09:02   Minor Geomagnetic Storming

A G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm, caused by slightly enhanced solar wind due to an earlier CME, began late (UTC) on July 9. Forecasters expect this to be the height of the disturbance, with normal conditions returning over the next 12 hours.


2013-06-29 15:59   Geomagnetic Storm Continues

The G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm that began early today, June 29, is still in progress. The intensity of the disturbance has weakened slightly as the incoming solar wind driving the disturbance has returned to more normal conditions. There may be another, lesser pulse today from a high-speed solar wind stream, but even so, the effects are expected to be less than what has already occurred. Watch for updates as conditions unfold.


2013-06-29 08:32   Geomagnetic Storming Intensifies

G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity has now been observed. A prolonged interval of southward Bz, presumably from an unremarkable CME, is having an impact. Updates here as appropriate.


2013-06-29 03:03   Geomagnetic Storming

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity has been observed. A prolonged interval of southward Bz, presumably from an unremarkable CME, is having an impact. Updates here as appropriate.


2013-06-02 14:34   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The geomagnetic storm associated with the coronal mass ejection is now over but continued low-level geomagnetic storming, G1 (Minor) or below, is expected for the next 24 hours as coronal hole high speed stream effects continue.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-06-01 03:24   Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed as Earth remains under the influence of a slow-moving coronal mass ejection.  This event was not associated with a significant solar flare and is likely the result of a disappearing filament.  Continued low-level geomagnetic storming is expected for the next 24-48 hours from coronal hole high speed stream effects that are expected in the near term.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-05-24 19:44   Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing

The geomagnetic storm associated with the May 22nd solar flare/corresponding coronal mass ejection is ongoing.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions have occurred as a result.  Continued, low-level geomagnetic storming is expected over the next 24-36 hours as Earth remains under the influence of this disturbance.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-05-24 17:56   Shock Detected at ACE

As expected, the CME is now in the midst of passing ACE, seen there first about 1735 UTC (1:35 p.m. EDT) today, May 24. Look for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels to follow over the next 24 hours.  The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is still in a state of slow decline. Updates here.


2013-05-23 16:42   Radiation Storm Weakening, Geomagnetic Storm Coming

Yesterday's eruption from NOAA 1745 did include an Earth-directed, though well off the Sun-Earth line, CME. Forecasters are expecting an oblique swipe to bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity to start about 1200 UTC (8 a.m. EDT) May 24. The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm is abating and Region 1745 is making an undramatic exit from the visible disk. More here as conditions warrant.


2013-05-23 04:09   Solar Radiation Storm Hits S3 (Strong)

The Solar Radiation Storm, in progress over the past 12 hours, reached S3 (Strong) levels at approximately 0300 UTC on May 23 (11:00 p.m. EDT May 22). The higher energies (>50 MeV and >100 MeV, shown in blue and green, respectively, in the top panel of the Satellite Environment Plot below left) have been stable or declining through the interval. The solar region that started it all has been quiet since, as it makes west limb passage. Follow the evolution of the event here.


2013-05-22 15:29   X-ray and Proton Data Now Back; Solar Radiation Storm at S2 (Moderate)

Data issues have been resolved. A prompt arrival of solar protons has caused an S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm. This is a consequence of the recent eruption at approximately 1323 UTC (9:23 a.m. EDT) today. The source region is NOAA 1745, not the same site as the activity from last week. Updates here as conditions evolve.


2013-05-22 14:10   X-ray and Proton Data Unavailable; Eruption From West Limb

Issues with the real-time GOES data stream are currently being worked. Other backup data sources detected what seems to be an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout from a source region near West Limb at approximately 1323 UTC (9:23 a.m. EDT) today. A Solar Radiation Storm is highly probable from this eruption. Check here for updates.


2013-05-20 04:19   Weak Response

The almost exclusively northward embedded magnetic field in the CME has resulted in no Geomagnetic Storm conditions at this writing. Things could change quickly if the field goes southward. Check here for status updates.


2013-05-20 04:16   Weak Response

The almost exclusively northward embedded magnetic filed in the CME has resulted in no Geomagnetic Storm conditions at this writing. Things could change quickly if the field goes southward. Check here for status updates.


2013-05-19 22:47   Geomagnetic Storm Imminent

The anticipated CME is now passing the ACE spacecraft. The CME-driven shock was first seen at 2221 UTC (6:21 p.m. EDT) today, a few hours later than forecasters had predicted. Now watch for the Earth's magnetic field to respond, looking for G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 24 hours. Updates here as conditions unfold.


2013-05-19 22:45   Geomagnetic Storm Imminent

The anticipated CME is now passing the ACE spacecraft. The CME-drive shock was first seen at 2221 UTC (6:21 p.m. EDT) today, a few hours later than forecasters had predicted. Now watch for the Earth's magnetic field to respond, looking for G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 24 hours. Updates here as conditions unfold.


2013-05-18 14:35   Watching for CME Passage May 19

Having felt the effects of the first CME earlier today, Forecasters now watch for another, stronger pulse. They are anticipating the passage of a CME that left the Sun May 17 around 1400 UTC (10 a.m. EDT) on May 19.  Their prediction is for Geomagnetic Storm category G2 (Moderate) activity to follow over the next 24 hours, persisting into May 20. The current Solar Radiation Storm is expected to stay at category S1 (Minor), although the proton flux may increase slightly with the passage of the shock driven by the CME. Updates here.


2013-05-18 03:42   UPDATE: G1 Now; Earth-Directed CME Expected May 19

[CME forecast to pass late on the 17th was detected at ACE around 0000 UTC May 18 (8 p.m. EDT May 17). G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions now occurring.]

Forecasters are anticipating the passage of a CME that left the Sun earlier today, to be around 1400 UTC (10 a.m. EDT) on May 19. Today Region 1748 erupted once again, this time an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout, associated with the CME, at 0857 UTC (4:57 a.m. EDT). Their prediction is for Geomagnetic Storm category G2 (Moderate) activity to follow over the next 24 hours, persisting into May 20. The current Solar Radiation Storm is expected to stay at category S1 (Minor), although the proton flux may increase slightly with the passage of the shock driven by the CME. Watch for updates here.


2013-05-17 20:45   Earth-Directed CME Expected May 19

Forecasters are anticipating the passage of a CME that left the Sun earlier today, to be around 1400 UTC (10 a.m. EDT) on May 19. Today Region 1748 erupted once again, this time an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout, associated with the CME, at 0857 UTC (4:57 a.m. EDT). Their prediction is for Geomagnetic Storm category G2 (Moderate) activity to follow over the next 24 hours, persisting into May 20. The current Solar Radiation Storm is expected to stay at category S1 (Minor), although the proton flux may increase slightly with the passage of the shock driven by the CME. Watch for updates here.


2013-05-17 01:19   Radiation Storm Lingers

Region 1748 recently had an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout, showing it still has something left. The S1(Minor) Solar Radiation Storm continues, holding steady just above event threshold. If things change, updates will be posted here.


2013-05-16 03:03   Sun Quiet, Radiation Storm Continues

Region 1748 was unproductive in the past 24 hours, but the S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation storm persists. Forecasters have re-analyzed yesterday's CME and now predict it to glance by the Earth's magnetic field late on May 17. No change in the magnitude however, still predicted to be less than storm levels. Things can change quickly, so check here for updates.

 


2013-05-15 14:34   Solar Radiation Storm Begins

The recent eruptions from Region 1748, first causing enhanced levels of solar protons and now passing event threshold, have produced an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm as of 1335 UTC (9:35 EDT) today. That condition is expected to linger in the S1 category, pending further eruptions. In addition, the CME associated with the most recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout (0148 UTC today) is predicted to sideswipe the geomagnetic field early on May 18 (UTC). Forecasters do not anticipate any Geomagnetic Storm activity with that. Back at the Sun, Region 1748 is still potent; forecasters are looking for more of the same today.

 


2013-05-15 14:27   Solar Radiation Storm Begins

The recent eruptions from Region 1748, first causing enhanced levels of solar protons and now passing event threshold, has produced an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm as of 1335 UTC (9:35 EDT) today. That condition is expected to linger in the S1 category, pending further eruptions. In addition, the CME associated with the most recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout (0148 UTC today) is predicted to sideswipe the geomagnetic field early on May 18 (UTC). Forecasters do not anticipate any Geomagnetic Storm activity with that. Back at the Sun, Region 1748 is still potent; forecasters are looking for more of the same today.

 


2013-05-15 02:23   Another R3 From 1748

Region 1748 ended its rest period and produced an R3( Strong) Radio Blackout at 0148UTC on May 15 (9:48 p.m. EDT, May 14), its fourth major event in the past few days. Too early to know if a CME occurred. If one did, it may just glance the Earth's magnetic field, given its off-center location still. Forecasters are pondering that one; more information on that will appear here.

 


2013-05-15 01:00   Little New To Report

It has been about 24 hours since the last event from Region 1748. Now more easily seen, it is not particularly impressive but does show a modest degree of magnetic complexity in its leader spots. To recap; three R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts and three CMEs. All the CMEs have been off the Sun-Earth line so Geomagnetic storming is not anticipated -- yet. There is a small enhancement in the GOES >10 MeV protons (see plot below) but well below Solar Radiation Storm event thresholds. Updates here as conditions warrant.

 


2013-05-14 15:52   Momentary Lull?

No new activity from Region 1748 in the past 15 hours. So far the tally is; three R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts and three CMEs. All the CMEs have been off the Sun-Earth line so Geomagnetic storming is not anticipated -- yet. There is a small enhancement in the GOES >10 MeV protons (see plot below) but well below Solar Radiation Storm event thresholds. Forecasters are hoping to get a better look at the region soon as it rotates toward center disk. The three Radio Blackouts were all spawned by X-Class flares, each one slightly larger than its predecessor. Watch here to see if that trend continues.

 


2013-05-14 15:47   Momentary Lull?

No new activity from Region 1748 in the past 15 hours. So far the tally is:, three R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts and three CMEs. All the CMEs have been off the Sun-Earth line so Geomagnetic Storming is not anticipated -- yet. There is a small enhancement in the GOES >10 MeV protons (see plot below) but well below Solar Radiation Storm event thresholds. Forecasters are hoping to get a better look at the region soon as it rotates toward center disk. The three Radio Blackouts were all spawned by X-Class flares, each one slightly larger than its predecessor. Watch here to see if that trend continues.

 


2013-05-14 01:28   Yet Another (Strong) Radio Blackout Seen

Newly numbered NOAA Region 1748 yielded its third R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, this latest one at May 14 0111 UTC (9:11 p.m. EDT May 13). No indication of a CME with this event as yet. Clearly an extraordinary active region is making its way fully onto the visible disk. Can it keep up this hectic pace? Watch here for updates.

 


2013-05-13 16:16   Another Strong Radio Blackout, May 13

A hot active region, still barely on the visible disk, erupted with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout around 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today, May 13. This is the same region that produced an R3 (Strong) event about 12 hours ago. Given its location well off the Sun-Earth line, no Geomagnetic Storm activity is anticipated should a CME be launched. These recent x-ray flares are the strongest so far this year. Watch here for updates.

 


2013-05-13 03:01   East Limb Region Produces Strong Radio Blackout

A new active center, just now visible on the Northeast limb, produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout in the early hours (UTC) of May 13. Watch here for updates as the active site rotates further into view.

 


2013-04-14 14:13   Low-level Geomagnetic Storm Underway

Earth remains under the influence of the Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in conjunction with an R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout on April 11th.  The influence of this CME has been weaker than expected, but G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is still possible through the 14th.  Stay tuned for updates.

 


2013-04-13 23:27   Geomagnetic Storm Underway

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in conjunction with an R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout on April 11th has arrived (detected at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 22:15 UTC (6:15 pm Eastern) on the 13th). G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is possible through the 14th as a result. Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have the opportunity to view the aurora Saturday night/Sunday morning, clear skies permitting. Stay tuned for updates.


2013-04-12 21:08   CME Update

Forecasters expect the CME from yesterday's solar eruption to pass Earth late (UTC) on April 13, just over a day from now. Its passage will bring G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions, with the brunt of the disturbance expected to fall over into April 14. The Solar Radiation Storm barely lingers near the S1(Minor) threshold.


2013-04-12 19:47   CME Update

Forecasters expect the CME from yesterday's solar eruption to pass Earth late (UTC) on April 13, just over a day from now. Its passage will bring G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions, with the brunt of the disturbance expected to fall over into April 14. No new activity occurred in the past 24 hours, and now the Solar Radiation Storm barely lingers near the S1(Minor) threshold.


2013-04-11 14:51   Sun Erupts, CME En Route

NOAA Region 1719, located near center of the solar disk today, produced an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout, quickly followed by an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm, at 1716 UTC (3:16 a.m. EDT) today, April 11. A Coronal Mass Ejection also occurred, and given its trajectory, model runs suggest it will pass Earth, causing what forecasters now expect to be G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity. The Geomagnetic Storm is expected to start in the mid to latter part  (UTC) of April 13. The source region is still potent and well-positioned for more geoeffective activity in the next few days. Updates will be here as conditions unfold.


2013-04-11 14:11   Sun Erupts, CME En Route

NOAA Region 1719, located near center of the solar disk today, produced an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout, quickly followed by an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm, at 1716 UTC (3:16 a.m. EDT) today, April 11. A Coronal Mass Ejection also occurred, and given its trajectory, model runs suggest it will pass Easrth, causing what forecasters now expect to be G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity. The Geomagnetic Storm is expected to start in the mid to latter part  (UTC) of April 13. The source region is still potent and well-positioned for more geoeffective activity in the next few days. Updates will be here as conditions unfold.


2013-03-25 13:16   New Space Weather Forecast Products Transitioning to Operational Status

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at Three Day Forecast and Forecast Discussion, respectively, and have been approved to become Operational on 22 April 2013.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-03-25 13:15   New Space Weather Forecast Products Transitioning to Operational Status

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at Three Day Forecast and Forecast Discussion, respectively, and have been approved to become Operational on 22 April 2013.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-03-19 01:18   New Space Weather Forecast Products Transitioning to Operational Status

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at Three Day Forecast and Forecast Discussion, respectively, and have been approved to become Operational on 22 April 2013.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-03-18 14:13   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

This weekend’s geomagnetic storm, which peaked at the G2 (Moderate) level on the 17th, is now winding down.  Low level (G1 or below) storming is still possible as Earth remains under the lingering influence of the coronal mass ejection, but the main phase of the storm appears to be over.  Additionally, no further significant activity is expected at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-18 03:02   Geomagnetic Storm Weakening

Geomagnetic storm levels have subsided from their peak at the G2 (Moderate) level, but G1 (Minor) storming is still possible as Earth remains under the influence of the coronal mass ejection.  This disturbance should continue to subside over the next 12-24 hours.  Additionally, no further significant activity is expected at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-17 15:53   Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing...

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed and continued storming is possible throughout today (the 17th) as Earth remains under the influence of this coronal mass ejection (CME).  Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event has decreased below the event threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels. Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-17 13:14   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed and are still possible throughout the next 24 hours as Earth remains under the influence of this coronal mass ejection (CME).  Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event is in decay and just below event threshold. Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-17 09:19   CME Has Arrived

G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are occurring.  The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th arrived (detected at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 5:28 UTC (1:28 am Eastern) on the 17th).  G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions remain possible throughout the 17th as a result.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have the opportunity to view the aurora early on Sunday morning, clear skies permitting.  Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event is currently hovering near the event threshold.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-17 05:53   CME Has Arrived

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th has arrived (detected at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 5:28 UTC (1:28 am Eastern) on the 17th).  G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is possible throughout the 17th as a result.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have the opportunity to view the aurora early on Sunday morning, clear skies permitting.  Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event is currently hovering near the event threshold.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-17 04:54   Awaiting CME Arrival

An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th.  This CME, originally expected to arrive late on March 16th, is later in arriving than originally expected but is still on its way.  G2 (Moderate) storming is still forecast for March 17th as a result.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may still have a good opportunity to view the aurora early on Sunday morning, clear skies permitting.  Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event is currently hovering near the event threshold.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-16 20:06   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th.  This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for late on the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have a good opportunity to view the aurora on Saturday night, clear skies permitting.  Additionally, a small S1 (Minor) radiation storm is currently in progress in association with this event.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-16 13:57   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th.  This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for late on the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th.  Aurora watchers across the northernmost states in the lower 48 may have a good opportunity to view the aurora on Saturday night, clear skies permitting. Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-15 18:14   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th.  This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th.  Stay tuned for updates.


2013-03-14 22:25   New Space Weather Forecast Products Transitioning to Operational Status

 

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.  

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at Three Day Forecast and Forecast Discussion, respectively, and have been approved to become Operational on 22 April 2013.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-02-12 20:44   New Space Weather Forecast Products Available

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.  

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-02-12 14:48   New Products Now Available

New Space Weather Forecast Products Available

The experimental review period for the two new products; the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, has concluded. Thank you to all who provided feedback.  

These products are now permanently available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.

Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.


2013-01-11 20:50   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

More information can be found for each products at:

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-3Day.pdf
http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-Dis.pdf                  

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through February 12th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.

 


2013-01-11 20:43   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

More information can be found for each products at:

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-3Day.pdf
http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-Dis.pdf                  

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through February 12th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.

 


2013-01-11 20:39   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

More information can be found for each products at:

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-3Day.pdf
http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-Dis.pdf                  

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through February 12th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.

 

 

 

 

 


2013-01-11 20:34   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

More information can be found for each products at:

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-3Day.pdf
http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD-Dis.pdf                  

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through February 12th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.

 


New Space Weather Education and Outreach Resources - NOW AVAILABLE! Follow this link.

Sign up for Emails of Space Weather Alerts, Warnings, Watches, and Forecasts.


2012-12-27 17:34   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through February 12th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.


2012-12-12 15:58   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecast is a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussion provides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summaries product category.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through January 11th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.


2012-12-12 15:57   New Experimental Products Available

Two new, experimental forecast products are now available, the 3-Day Forecastand the Forecast Discussion, both produced twice daily at 0030 and 1230 UTC.  The 3-Day Forecastis a concise, one-page summary using NOAA Space Weather Scale terminology and the Forecast Discussionprovides detailed information covering observations and forecast rationale tailored for the user requiring in-depth, scientific information. 

These products are available in the Data and Products section of the website at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/three_day_forecast.txt and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt, respectively.  Users can also subscribe to these products in the Product Subscription Service under the Forecasts and Summariesproductcategory.   

Feedback on these products is welcomed through January 11th.  Please submit feedback to: www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=3DSWF (3-Day Forecast) and www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=SWFD (Forecast Discussion). 

These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued at this time.


2012-12-04 22:08   New Experimental Products Coming

On December 11, SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-26 17:26   New Experimental Products Coming

On December 11 (tentative), SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-24 14:52   Still Awaiting the CME

The arrival of the first, smaller coronal mass ejection (CME) from earlier in the week has been observed but only low-level storming (below G1) occurred as a result.  The second, more significant CME is still expected but is later in arriving than originally forecast.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is still expected, but now likely through November 25th with the CME still yet to arrive. The region responsible for this activity, NOAA Region 1618, remains somewhat complex but has leveled off in growth.  This Region still has the potential for some subsequent activity, so stay tuned for updates.

 

Product Updates:  On December 11 (tentative), SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-23 21:38   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming through the 24th

SWPC forecasters expect G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming through November 24th. The primary Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) responsible for this storming was associated with a solar flare from NOAA Region 1618 that peaked at the R1 (Minor) level on November 21 at 1530 GMT (1030am EST).  Stay tuned for updates.

On December 11 (tentative), SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-22 02:38   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected

SWPC forecasters expect G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming beginning midday on November 23rd. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was associated with a solar flare from NOAA Region 1618 that peaked at the R1 (Minor) level on November 21 at 1530 GMT (1030am EST). Region 1618 continues to grow and has potential to produce more activity in the coming days. Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.

On December 11 (tentative), SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-16 19:14   New Experimental Products Coming

On December 11 (tentative), SWPC will introduce two new forecast products titled the 3-Day Forecast and the Forecast Discussion.  These new products will: be available twice a day at 0030 and 1230 UTC; provide space weather information in two separate formats, abbreviated and detailed; and use NOAA Space Weather Scale information.  Examples of these new products are available to familiarize our users at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/3-Day.pdf(the concise, 1-page summary) and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Discussion.pdf(the in-depth space weather analysis for the technical user).  These two products will supplement the existing product suite and no current products will be discontinued.


2012-11-14 13:23   Energized Solar Wind

A prolonged period of southward interplanetary magnetic field brought G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions early on November 14 (UTC), evening hours November 13 (EST). This condition, in the wake of a CME passage, persisted overnight but has since shown signs of weakening. Stay tuned for updates.


2012-11-14 03:56   Energized Solar Wind

A prolonged period of southward interplanetary magnetic field brought G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions early on November 14 (UTC), evening hours November 13 (EST). This condition, in the wake of a CME passage, may persist for a few more hours. Check here for updates.


2012-10-23 03:55   Impulsive R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout

Region 1598, busy since appearing from around the limb just a few days ago, produced an impulsive, or short-lived, R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout at 0317 UTC on October 23rd (11:17 pm Eastern on October 22nd).  Impulsive flares aren’t generally associated with severe space weather, and additionally, this region is still several days away from directly facing Earth from center disk.  Nonetheless, the potential for continued activity remains, so stay tuned for updates as Region 1598 makes its way across the visible disk.


2012-10-15 17:23   NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Ribbon Cutting

Did you know that SWPC is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)?  SWPC isn’t moving, but NCEP is, into the new NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP).  There will be a ribbon cutting Monday for the new building on the University of Maryland, College Park campus.

 

Updated October 15: The official press release for the opening of the NCWCP is now available.


2012-10-12 21:40   NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Ribbon Cutting

 

Did you know that SWPC is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)?  SWPC isn’t moving, but NCEP is, into the new NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP).  There will be a ribbon cutting Monday for the new building on the University of Maryland, College Park campus.


2012-10-09 23:50   Geomagnetic Storms and Radio Blackouts

G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels have been observed as the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream continue. R1(Minor) Radio Blackouts were also observed as a new active region rotates onto the visible disk.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-10-09 01:14   Geomagnetic Storm Continues

Earth remains under the influence of an October 5th coronal mass ejection (CME).  G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels have been observed thus far and are still possible as this magnetic cloud continues to affect Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-10-08 13:41   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm

Geomagnetic storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level was observed overnight with the arrival of the October 5th coronal mass ejection (CME).  The strongest portion of this storm is likely over, but continued low-level storming is still possible throughout the day as Earth remains under the influence of this CME.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-10-01 14:07   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

A single period of geomagnetic storming reaching the G3 (Strong) level was observed overnight.  Since that time, geomagnetic activity has been on the decline as the CME influence has continued to weaken.  No further significant activity is expected at this time but stay tuned for updates.


2012-10-01 03:16   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming

Earth remains under the influence of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the filament eruption near end-of-day September 27th.  A single period of geomagnetic storming reaching the G3 (Strong) level has been observed, and continued storming is possible through October 1st. Although this storm got off to a slow start, stronger magnetic structure ultimately came, leading to storm levels slightly higher than initially predicted. Stay tuned for updates.


2012-10-01 01:58   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming

Earth remains under the influence of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the filament eruption near end-of-day September 27th.  Geomagnetic storm levels reaching the G2 (Moderate) level have been observed and are possible through October 1st. Although this storm got off to a slow start, stronger magnetic structure ultimately came, leading to storm levels consistent with initial projections. Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-30 22:00   G1-Geomagnetic Storm conditions possible on 01 October

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the filament eruption near end-of-day September 27th has arrived.  Geomagnetic storm levels reaching the G1 (Minor) level are possible on October 1st as Earth remains under the influence of this CME. The full moon may make viewing the aurora more difficult, but high latitude aurora watchers should now be on the lookout.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-30 13:13   CME Has Arrived, G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the filament eruption near end-of-day September 27th has arrived.  Geomagnetic storm levels reaching the G2 (Moderate) level are possible through October 1st as Earth remains under the influence of this CME. The full moon may make viewing the aurora more difficult, but high latitude aurora watchers should now be on the lookout.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-28 20:37   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Expected

A filament eruption near end-of-day September 27th resulted in a brief S1 (Minor) radiation storm. The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is en route and is expected to affect Earth mid to late day on September 30th (Eastern time), with storming continuing into the 1st.  Geomagnetic storm levels reaching the G2 (Moderate) level are possible for both days.  The full moon may make viewing the aurora more difficult, but high latitude aurora watchers should be on the lookout during that time, nonetheless.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-28 14:22   Small Radiation Storm, Earth-directed CME

A small radiation storm reaching the S1 (Minor) level occurred overnight as a result of a long duration flare well below the R1 (Minor) threshold on the NOAA Space Weather Scales.  There is an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection associated with this event, and initial analysis indicates likely arrival late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.  Better estimates of arrival time and intensity will come as model data becomes available.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-05 12:24   Continued Geomagnetic Storming

Geomagnetic storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continued overnight.  The suspected driver was one of two coronal mass ejections observed on September 2.  Additionally, solar radiation storm levels have largely returned to background levels, and although there are several sunspot groups on the visible disk, the risk for severe space weather remains relatively low at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-05 03:42   Continued Geomagnetic Storming

Geomagnetic storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continues at this time.  The suspected driver is one of two coronal mass ejections observed on September 2.  Additionally, solar radiation storm levels have largely returned to background levels, and although there are several sunspot groups on the visible disk, the risk for severe space weather remains relatively low at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-05 03:27   Continued Geomagnetic Storming

Isolated G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming continues as Earth remains under the influence of the coronal mass ejection associated with the August 31st filament eruption.  Although this event gave earlier signs of decline, continued structure in the passing cloud is leading to additional storming.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-04 13:39   Normal Conditions Return

The G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm has ended with the return of normal solar wind conditions. Also, the S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm has also ended. Look for benign space weather in the near-term.

 


2012-09-04 04:19   Geomagnetic Storm Update

Low-level geomagnetic storming continues as the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the August 31st filament eruption continues to affect Earth.  The geomagnetic storm reached the G2 (Moderate) level on September 3rd, but only G1 (Minor) or lower levels of storming have been observed since that time.  Solar radiation storm levels are below the S1 (Minor) event threshold and continue a slow decline toward background levels.  Stay tuned for updates.

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2012-09-03 21:48   Geomagnetic Storm Update

Low-level geomagnetic storming continues as the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the August 31st filament eruption continues to affect Earth.  The geomagnetic storm reached G2 (Moderate) levels earlier in the day, but has quieted since that time.  Solar radiation storm levels continue to hover near the S1 (Minor) event threshold but continue a slow decline toward background levels.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-03 15:14   G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm in Progress

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is ongoing now as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival associated with the August 31st filament eruption.  Continued geomagnetic storming is expected in the near term as the CME continues to affect Earth.  Solar radiation storm levels continue to hover near the S1 (Minor) event threshold but should continue their slow decline toward background levels.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-01 16:00   Minor Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

Solar Radiation Storm levels have increased above the S1 (Minor) threshold in response to a filament eruption observed late on August 31st.  The solar flare/radio blackout associated with this event was below the R-scale event thresholds.  Geomagnetic Storm levels are forecast to reach the G1 (Minor) level with a chance for G2 (Moderate) level activity on September 3rd, with arrival of the coronal mass ejection expected early that day.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-09-01 13:56   Minor Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

Solar Radiation Storm levels have increased above the S1 (Minor) threshold in response to a filament eruption observed late on August 31st.  The solar flare/radio blackout associated with this event was below the R-scale event thresholds.  Geomagnetic Storm levels are forecast to reach the G1 (Minor) level with a chance for G2 (Moderate) level activity on September 3rd, with arrival of the coronal mass ejection expected early that day.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-08-29 20:58   Product Delivery Issues Resolved

The problems with the email product delivery system regarding missing or delayed products have now been resolved.  Testing has shown normal delivery of products at this time but users should report any ongoing issues to pss.help@noaa.gov.


2012-08-27 15:29   Delayed or Missing Email Products

SWPC is currently experiencing problems with the email product delivery system; users are reporting missing or delayed scheduled products.  As part of testing, a geomagnetic storm warning product noting G3 or higher level storming expected was inadvertently issued and then canceled.  Active troubleshooting is ongoing now and updates will be posted here, when available.  The website itself is unaffected and will correctly display the current space weather conditions.  No significant space weather is forecast at this time.


2012-08-19 18:07   A Temporary Lull?

Activity has declined in the past 24 hours, as few flares have occurred. Forecasters are watching the northeast quadrant for a resurgence from NOAA Region 1548. Updates here.


2012-08-19 02:35   Solar Activity Increasing


Solar flare-generated Radio Blackouts (including an R2 (Moderate) at 9:02 p.m. EDT August 17 (0102 UTC August 18)) herald the arrival of a new active region at northeast limb. More flares and possibly CMEs are likely. Updates here as conditions develop.


2012-08-18 18:53   Solar Activity Increasing


Solar flare-generated Radio Blackouts (including an R2 (Moderate) at 9:02 p.m. EDT August 17 (0102 UTC August 18) herald the arrival of a new active region at northeast limb. More flares and possibly CMEs are likely. Updates here as conditions develop.


2012-07-24 21:34   Radiation Storm Lingers

The S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm that began July 23, is still underway. It is likely to end in the next 24 hours. If conditions change, updates will be found here.


2012-07-23 17:50   Minor Solar Radiation Storm

A CME and flare from well beyond west limb earlier today have caused an S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm. The protons began to increase at the GOES spacecraft around 0730 UTC (3:30 a.m. EDT) and are now just slightly above event threshold. Expectations are for the event to stay at S1 (minor) levels and slowly wane through the next 12-24 hours.


2012-07-20 13:58   Shock Passes

A weak shock driven by recent CME activity from now-departed Region 1520, passed ACE around 0415 UTC (00:15 a.m. EDT) today. However, it caused no geomagnetic storm activity. The S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm persists, but should steadily decline through the day. Elsewhere, no significant activity occurred. Updates here should things change.


2012-07-19 13:56   Last Hurrah?

Region 1520, now past west limb, continues to erupt. It produced an R2 (moderate) Radio Blackout and a CME earlier today. Although not clearly earth-directed, forecasters are analyzing it for tangential effects on the geomagnetic field. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm soon followed the eruption. Updates here.


2012-07-18 03:22   Solar Radiation Storm In Decline

After reaching the S2 (moderate) level briefly, the Solar Radiation Storm which began about 8 hours ago is now in decline. Should things change, updates will be found here.


2012-07-17 19:23   Solar Radiation Storm Begins

An eruption from the bright region on west limb, including a long-duration R1 (minor) Radio Blackout, has spawned an S1(minor) Solar Radiation Storm. Updates as conditions progress.


2012-07-17 19:21   Solar Radiation Storm Begins

An eruption from the bright region on west limb, including a long-duration R1 (minor) Radio Blackout, has spawned a S1(minor) Solar Radiation Storm. Updates as conditions progress.


2012-07-16 14:13   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The ongoing geomagnetic storm is finally showing signs of weakening.  G2 (Moderate) levels were observed during the event, but recent periods have been below the G1 (Minor) level.  No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-15 11:12   Geomagnetic Storm Underway

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity is now occurring as a result of the ongoing coronal mass ejection effects.  No further significant activity has occured, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-14 20:55   Geomagnetic Storm Underway

G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is now occurring. Similar conditions, with a chance of category G2 (moderate) levels, anticipated through the weekend. Updates as conditions warrant.


2012-07-14 18:28   Shock at ACE Spacecraft

The shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 1730 UTC (1:30 p.m. EDT) today, July 14. Now watch for the CME and then, the imminent disturbance to the geomagnetic field. SWPC expects G1 (minor) and possibly G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels over the next 36 hours. More as this unfolds.


2012-07-14 18:24   Shock at ACE Spacecraft

The shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 1730 UTC (1:30 p.m. EDT) today, July 14. Now watch for the CME and then, the imminent disturbance to the geomagnetic field. SWPC expects G1 (minor) and possibly G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels over the nest 36 hours. More as this unfolds.


2012-07-14 17:06   CME Coming

As the forerunner solar wind protons continue a steady increase, indicators that the CME is on the way, the wait continues for it to impact the Earth's magnetic field. Look for that in the next few hours. Otherwise, similar to yesterday, Region 1520 has had the occasional Radio Blackout (flare), and the Solar Radiation Storm sits barely at the S1(minor) level; that may increase slightly with the passage of the CME. Updates here as conditions develop.


2012-07-14 01:06   CME Watch Continues

All eyes are on the solar wind data to note the expected passage on Saturday of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from Thursday's solar event. SWPC expects G1 (minor) with the chance of attaining G2 (moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity after 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on July 14. Elsewhere the S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm lingers, and Region 1520 has been quiet. Updates here as conditions warrant.


2012-07-13 13:25   CME Forecast Revised

The latest model run now indicates the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event will impact the earth's magnetic field around 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 UTC) on Saturday, July 14. SWPC is forecasting category G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity then, with a chance of G2 (Moderate) levels at times through July 15. The S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm persists just above event threshold. Region 1520 has decayed in the past 12 hours, but is still potentially eruptive.


2012-07-12 19:31   Solar Eruption Today -- Further Analysis

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout  today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt, so watch for more. Updates here.


2012-07-12 17:14   R3-Radio Blackout Storm in Effect

R3-Radio Blackout Storms (Strong) are currently in effect. Region 1520, located close to center disk, is the culprit on today's events.  It is still to early to see if an Earth-directed CME or energetic particles are associated with this event, however SWPC forecasters are monitoring the situation. Stay tuned for further information on this event and other Space Weather news.


2012-07-12 17:06   Developing Story

R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout now occurring from a region at the center of the Sun, a prime location for a CME -- if a part of the eruption --  to affect the geomagnetic field. Observations now coming in, updates here.


2012-07-11 12:23   

Region 1515 has rotated out of view but remaining Region 1520 remains large and complex.  Region 1520 has only produced R1 (Minor) activity to date, but it certainly has the potential for further activity.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1520 makes its way across the visible disk.


2012-07-10 14:14   

Region 1515 has just rotated out of view but remaining Region 1520 remains large and complex.  Region 1520 has only produced R1 (Minor) activity to date, but it certainly has the potential for further activity.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1520 makes its way across the visible disk.


2012-07-09 18:17   Continued R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Activity...

Region 1515 produced another impulsive, R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout at 1632 UTC (12:32 PM EDT) on July 8.  Solar radiation storm levels increased in response to this event but have now decayed below the S1 (Minor) threshold.  Region 1515 is approaching the limb, but Region 1520 has just made its way onto the visible disk.  Both of these regions have the potential for further activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-09 18:15   Continued R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Activity...

Region 1515 produced another impulsive, R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout at 1632 UTC (12:32 PM EDT) on July 8.  Solar radiation storm levels increased in response to this event and but have now decayed below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continue a slow return to background levels.    Region 1515 is approaching the limb, but Region 1520 has just made its way onto the visible disk.  Both of these regions have the potential for further activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-09 03:43   Continued R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Activity...

Region 1515 produced another impulsive, R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout at 1632 UTC (12:32 PM EDT) on July 8.  Solar radiation storm levels increased in response to this event and are just above the S1 (Minor) event threshold at this time.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of CMEs observed last week make their way past Earth.  Region 1515 is approaching the limb, but Region 1520 has just made its way onto the visible disk.  Both of these regions have the potential for further activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-08 20:52   Continued R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Activity...

Region 1515 produced another impulsive, R2 (Moderate) solar flare radio blackout at 1632 UTC (12:32 PM EDT) on July 8.  Solar radiation storm levels increased in response to this event but they still remain below the S1 (Minor) event threshold at this time.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of CMEs observed last week make their way past Earth.  Region 1515 is approaching the limb, but Region 1520 has just made its way onto the visible disk.  Both of these regions have the potential for further activity, so stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-08 03:50   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, Update on Associated CME

Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth and only a mild (below G1) geomagnetic disturbance is expected on July 10 as a result.  Solar Radiation Storm levels are now below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continue their slow decline toward background levels.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of CMEs observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-07 19:33   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, Update on Associated CME

Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth and only a mild (below G1) geomagnetic disturbance is expected on July 10 as a result.  Solar Radiation Storm levels are now below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continue their slow decline toward background levels.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of CMEs observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-07 13:17   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout - Solar Radiation Strom in Decline

Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  Initial analysis indicates the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  A high-confidence WSA-Enlil model run is being done to refine that estimate.  Solar Radiation Storm levels did exceed the S1 (Minor) threshold but appear to be in decline at this time.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-07 04:38   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout - Event Update

Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  Preliminary analysis indicates the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  Additional imagery is needed before a high-confidence WSA-Enlil model run can be done to refine that estimate.  Solar Radiation Storm levels continue to increase slowly and are currently above the S1 (Minor) threshold.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-07 03:34   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout - Event Update

Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  Preliminary analysis indicates the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  Additional imagery is needed before a high-confidence WSA-Enlil model run can be done to refine that estimate.  Solar Radiation Storm levels are slowly increasing above background levels but remain below the S1 (Minor) threshold at this time.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-07 00:19   R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout

Region 1515 produced an impulsive, R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6 (impulsive flares rise and fall quickly and are generally not associated with the most significant space weather events).  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is ongoing now and possible through July 8 as a string of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  An additional CME is likely associated with the R3 (Strong) event, but it will take some time for enough solar imagery to fill in to tell if this CME is indeed Earth-directed.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-06 16:41   Solar Flare/Radio Blackout Activity Continues, Minor Geomagnetic Storm Possible

Elevated solar flare activity continues at this time with levels reaching the R2 (Moderate) level on July 4th and 5th.  The bulk of activity is coming from Region 1515, a moderate-sized active region with a magnetic field complexity that harbors an isolated chance of X-class flare activity (X-class being R3, Strong, or greater).  Geomagnetic storming is expected on July 7th and 8th as a string of coronal mass ejections from earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Significant storming is not expected, but periods reaching the G1 (Minor) level are possible.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-05 20:36   Solar Flare/Radio Blackout Activity Continues, Minor Geomagnetic Storm Possible

Elevated solar flare activity continues at this time with levels reaching the R2 (Moderate) level on July 4th and 5th.  The bulk of activity is coming from Region 1515, a moderate-sized active region with a magnetic field complexity that harbors an isolated chance of X-class flare activity (X-class being R3, Strong, or greater).  Geomagnetic storming is expected early on July 8th as a pair of coronal mass ejections observed on July 4th make their way past Earth.  Significant storming is not expected, but periods reaching the G1 (Minor) level are possible.  Stay tuned for updates.


2012-07-05 03:50   Region 1515 Showing Signs of Life

Elevated solar flare activity continues at this time with levels reaching the R2 (Moderate) level over the past 24 hours.  The bulk of activity is coming from Region 1515, a moderate-sized active region with a magnetic field complexity that harbors an isolated chance of X-class flare activity (X-class being R3, Strong, or greater).  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1515 continues its march across the solar disk.


2012-06-18 13:40   Geomagnetic Storm Winding Down

The latest geomagnetic storm appears to be winding down, with the last period of G1 (Minor) activity coming late last night EDT.  Solar Radiation Storm levels have returned to background levels after the small S1 (Minor) storm observed on June 16.  No further activity is currently expected, but Region 1504 is still present and harbors a slight chance for subsequent activity.


2012-06-17 14:23   Geomagnetic Storm Update

G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity continued overnight and into the early morning hours of today (June 17).  Continued minor to moderate geomagnetic storming is still possible as the effects of this disturbance subside.  The small Solar Radiation Storm observed June 16 has now decayed below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues its slow return to background levels.  No further significant activity is currently expected, but Region 1504 is still present and harbors a slight chance for subsequent activity.


2012-06-17 00:23   2nd Pulse Brings Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Activity

Another pulse in the solar wind at approximately 1900 UTC (3:00 p.m. EDT) today caused G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity to now occur. Strong Interplanetary Magnetic Fields and a jump in solar wind speed have fueled the disturbance. The Solar Radiation Storm has weakened, fluctuating now at the S1 (Minor) level. Updates here.


2012-06-17 00:21   2nd Pulse Brings Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Activity

Another pulse in the solar wind at approximately 1900 UTC (3:00 p.m. EDT) today caused G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity to now occur. Strong Interplanetary Magnetic Fields and a jump in solar wind speed have fueled the disturbance. The Solar Radiation Storm remains unchanged at the S1 (Minor) level.


2012-06-16 20:21   Minor Solar Radiation Storm Now

An S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm began just before 4 p.m. (EDT) today June 16. This enhancement, not expected to get much larger, came as a product of the shock driven by the CME that passed some hours ago. Still no geomagnetic storm activity. Check here for updates.


2012-06-16 14:51   CME passes ACE around 0900 UTC

The anticipated CME went by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 0900 UTC (5:00 a.m. EDT) today June 16. As yet the impact to the Earth's magnetic field has been minimal. Things may intensify over the day, updates here.


2012-06-15 21:22   CME Expected

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that left the Sun on June 14, appears to be earth-directed. It is expected to affect the geomagnetic field around the late afternoon -- early evening hours (EDT) tomorrow June 16. Periods of G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity are likely soon thereafter. For updates, check this site.


2012-05-18 00:36   Event in Decline

The Solar Radiation Storm is winding down as Region 1476 disappears around west limb. Just a glancing blow is anticipated from yesterday's CME, that expected to possibly bring G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions for short periods on May 18. Any updates will appear in this space.


2012-05-17 05:50   The Wait Is Over

NOAA Region 1476, quiet and in decay for days, produced a very impulsive R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 0147UTC on May 17 (9:47 p.m. EDT May 16). The region, now in the solar western hemisphere and magnetically well-connected to earth, also caused a very fast S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm with this eruption. Odds are the Radiation Storm has peaked. If a CME was launched, it is likely to be off-line with earth given the far western site of the event. Watch here for more details.


2012-05-17 05:45   The Wait Is Over

NOAA Region 1476, quiet and in decay for days, produced a very impulsive R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 0143UTC on May 17 (9:43 p.m. EDT May 16). The region, now in the solar western hemisphere and magnetically well-connected to earth, also caused a very fast S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm with this eruption. Odds are the Radiation Storm has peaked. If a CME was launched, it is likely to be off-line with earth given the far western site of the event. Watch here for more details.


2012-05-13 02:10   Calm Prevails

NOAA Region 1476 continues to rotate across the disk in a state of complacency. Still ominous and large, it has not produced any eruptive events of note. If it does, follow the occasion here.


2012-05-11 14:15   The Watch Continues

NOAA Region 1476, now right in the middle of the solar disk, continues to dissipate its energy in relatively small bursts of modest flares and weak CMEs. That output belies its appearance -- large sunspots and entangled magnetic fields. Forecasters are vigilant, watch here should things break loose.


2012-05-11 14:14   The Watch Continues

NOAA Region 1476, now right in the mioddle of the solar disk, continues to dissipate its energy in relatively small bursts of modest flares and weak CMEs. That output belies its appearance -- large sunspots and entangled magnetic fields. Forecasters are vigilant, watch here should things break loose.


2012-05-10 12:33   Impulsive Flares Continue

NOAA Region 1476 remains eruptive, producing occasional Radio Blackouts over the past 24 hours. The largest event was an R2 (Moderate) at 0418UTC (00:18 a.m. EDT) today, May 10. There are indications of a CME as part of that event, analysis now occurring. More Radio Blackouts expected today, watch here for the latest.


2012-05-09 13:58   Increased Activity Looming

NOAA Region 1476, now poised just to the east of center on the solar disk, produced an impulsive R1(Minor) Radio Blackout at 1232 UTC (8:32 EDT) today. The region is quite prominent, although just one-third in area of the large regions of the Halloween Storms in 2003, and exhibits a slight degree of magnetic complexity. It will be in direct alignment with earth in a few days, so CME's then would be likely to spawn geomagnetic activity. Watch here for further developments.


2012-04-24 14:39   Moderate Geomagnetic Storming

A G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm took place overnight as a result of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 19 April.  Storming has subsided at this point but G1 (Minor) conditions are possible again on 26 April as another CME is expected to make its way past Earth.  Stay tuned to this website and the SWPC Facebook page for updates.  


2012-04-24 02:08   April Showers er...Geomagnetic Storms

Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming is occurring and Strong (G3) storms are likely in conjunction with the arrival of the solar eruptions from April 18th and 19th.  These eruptions arrived within hours of their expected times and the second event came in with the magnetic field favorably oriented for moderate to strong storming.  Activity should continue through the night in North America and stay tuned to this website and the SWPC Facebook page for updates.  To see if you have a chance at catching the aurora tonight, check out the SWPC Ovation Aurora  Prediction page. 


2012-03-23 21:56   All GOES Space Weather Data and Imagery Now Available

As of this afternoon, MDT, all GOES 15 space weather data and imagery have been restored to full operational capability.


2012-03-23 16:50   SWPC GOES Data Again Available

Just in: GOES 15 xray, particle and magnetometer data are now again accessible as of about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today. Imagery should be available again at approximately 1900 UTC.

 


2012-03-23 16:46   SWPC GOES Data Again Available

Just in: GOES 15 xray and magnetometer data are now again accessible as of about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today. Imagery should be available again at approximately 1900 UTC.

 


2012-03-23 16:41   SWPC GOES Data Again Available

Just in: GOES 15 xray data are now again accessible as of about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today. Imagery should be available again at approximately 1900 UTC.

 


2012-03-22 18:13   SWPC GOES Data Expected Back Friday

UPDATE:  Recent analysis indicates GOES 15 data to return about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) tomorrow Friday, March 23. Watch here for any changes.


2012-03-21 21:34   SWPC GOES Data Interruption

GOES 15 space weather data has been temporarily interrupted. SWPC alerts, warnings, and watches are unaffected due to the internal use of backup data. Watch here for updates.


2012-03-21 21:34   SWPC GOES Data Interruption

GOES 15 space weather data has been temporarily interrupted. SWPC alerts, warnings, and watches are unaffected due to the internal use of backup data. Watch here for updates.


2012-03-21 21:32   SWPC GOES Data Interruption

GOES 15 space weather data has been temporarily interrupted. SWPC alerts, warnings, and watches are unaffected due to the internal use of backup data. Watch here for updates.


2012-03-21 21:27   SWPC GOES Data Interruption

GOES 15 space weather data has been temporarily interrupted. SWPC alerts, warnings, and watches are unaffected due to the internal use of backup data. Watch here for updates.


2012-03-16 22:57   

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-15 19:39   Moderate Geomagnetic Storming

A stronger than anticipated impact from the CME of March 13 caused recent G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Region 1429, the site of the eruption, has not been productive today. Updates as conditions warrant.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-15 03:55   Parting Shot

NOAA Region 1429 yielded an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 1741 UTC on March 13 (1:41 p.m. EDT). The Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event continues its slow decay toward background levels. The coronal mass ejection associated with this event was not headed directly at Earth, so only low levels of geomagnetic storming are expected as a result.  Region 1429 is due to rotate off the disk shortly but still holds the potential for additional Radio Blackout or Solar Radiation Storm activity as it makes its way out of view. 

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-13 22:10   Parting Shot -- UPDATE

NOAA Region 1429 yielded an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout at 1741 UTC (1:41 p.m. EDT). The Solar Radiation Storm promptly reached S2 (Moderate) levels, but now should slowly decline. A CME also occurred that appears to be on a path not towards Earth. Updates as appropriate here.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-13 20:30   Parting Shot?

Region 1429 now producing an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout; Solar Radiation Storm likely to intensify. The region is now positioned in the far western solar hemisphere.Watch here for updates.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-13 18:34   Parting Shot?

Region 1429 now producing an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout; Solar Radiation Storm likely to intensify. The region is now positioned in the far western solar hemisphere.Watch here for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-13 18:33   Parting Shot?

Regaion 1429 now producing an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout; Solar Radiation Storm likely to intensify. The region is now positioned in the far western solar hemisphere.Watch here for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-13 14:32   Significant Activity Winding Down

No additional geomagnetic storm activity is expected at this time; all coronal mass ejections that were expected to affect Earth appear to have passed.  Also, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex but has shown signs of weakening.  Continued activity is possible as Region 1429 approaches the limb and rotates out of view over the next several days.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-12 23:25   Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible

Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13.  That said, continued activity is possible and any subsequent events would change that outlook.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-12 12:50   Geomagnetic Storm Underway

Geomagnetic storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level is underway.  Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is likely between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 24 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13.  That said, continued activity is possible and any subsequent events would change that outlook.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-12 03:28   Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Next Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause strong geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11.  Little in the way of storming has been observed, but there was a weak disturbance starting around 1230 UTC March 11 (7:30 a.m. EDT).  This CME wasn’t headed straight for Earth, so this weak disturbance may be all that results from just skirting the edge of this CME.  The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13 with G2 (Moderate) to isolated G3 (Strong) levels likely.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-11 15:07   Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level. That CME hasn’t arrived as early as predicted, so stay tuned for updates as the day progresses. The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13, with intensities lower than those observed with the events of last week; forecast specifics are still in work. Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level. Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-10 20:55   Solar Radiation Ongoing, Geomagnetic Storming Expected

Region 1429 remains active with another R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event at 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10).  This event did have a coronal mass ejection associated with it and analysis continues to estimate what impact this could have on Earth.  Meanwhile, Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S2 (Moderate) threshold, their decay being slowed by the continued activity.  The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) is expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-10 01:27   Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Another CME On Its Way

The geomagnetic storm associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) has come to a close.  Additionally, Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S2 (Moderate) threshold but continue their slow decay.  The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout occurring at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) is expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level.  Region 1429 remains complex and subsequent activity is certainly possible.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-10 01:24   Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Another CME On Its Way

The geomagnetic storm associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) has come to a close.  Additionally, Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above S2 (Moderate) threshold but continue their slow decay.  The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout occurring at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) is expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level.  Region 1429 remains complex and subsequent activity is certainly possible.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-09 17:40   Solar Activity Continues, Another CME On Its Way

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) continues to affect the Earth, with the storm peaking at G3 (Strong) levels overnight and into the morning. This storm is now showing signs of subsiding, but lower levels of activity will still continue throughout the day. Solar Radiation Storm levels remain at S2 (Moderate) levels, flattening out in response to a R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout occurring at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8). The R2 event had an associated coronal mass ejection that is expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to again reach the G3 (Strong) level. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-09 12:36   Solar Activity Continues, Another CME On Its Way

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) continues to affect the Earth and G3 (Strong) storming levels have now been observed.  The magnetic field orientation needed to cause strong geomagnetic storming finally occurred overnight, so although it got off to a slow start, levels have reached what was predicted.  Solar Radiation Storm levels remain at S2 (Moderate) levels, flattening out in response to a new, R2 (Moderate) solar flare occurring at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8).  This R2 event had an associated coronal mass ejection and analysis is pending to determine the expected arrival time and resulting geomagnetic storm intensity. 

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-09 08:45   A Sting in the Tail

The geomagnetic storm that began at 1105 UTC March 8 (6:05 a.m. EST) has a sting in its tail, giving the forecasted G3 (Strong) intensities late in the event at 0724 UTC March 9 (02:24 a.m. EST).  G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) storm levels are expected for at least another 6 hours. The radiation storm that is in progress is abating, falling to the S2 (Moderate) level and dropping rapidly.  In the meantime, a new event is grabbing our attention. When Region 1429 was pointed directly at Earth, it unleashed an R2 (Moderate) solar flare at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) and an associated coronal mass ejection now beginning its journey towards Earth.  Analysis is pending to determine the expected arrival time and resulting geomagnetic storm intensity.

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POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-09 03:48   Geomagnetic Storm Continues, Solar Radiation Storm Begins Decay

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 continues to minimally affect the Earth and G1 (Minor) storming levels have been observed since the onset at 1105 UTC March 8 (6:05 a.m. EST March 8).  Although the magnetic field strength of this CME has been fairly high, it hasn’t been of the orientation needed to cause strong geomagnetic storming.  The disturbance is not over, but storming reaching the G3 (Strong) levels as initially predicted is becoming less likely as influence from this CME wanes.  Solar Radiation Storm levels have just decreased below the S3 (Strong) threshold and are expected to continue their slow decay over the next several days, barring additional activity.  Region 1429, the source of these events, is near the center of the solar disk and continues to have the potential for significant activity.  Updates will follow as conditions warrant. 

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-08 22:11   Geomagnetic Storm in Progress, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8).  So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming.  As the event progresses, that field will continue to change.  Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, but are starting to show the first signs of decay.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Due to recent and ongoing space weather activity, SWPC is under a moratorium for changes to operational systems. As a result, the following change will be postponed one week to Monday, March 19:  Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST). The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-08 15:03   Geomagnetic Storm in Progress, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8).  So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming.  As the event progresses, that field will continue to change.  Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising momentarily with shock arrival.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.


2012-03-08 11:32   Geomagnetic Storm has Started, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8).  So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming.  As the event progresses, that field will continue to change.  Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising at the moment with the shock arrival. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.


2012-03-08 03:18   Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.


2012-03-07 15:18   Solar Radiation and Geomagnetic Storms Continue

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). As a result, storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continues at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8) . Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely from that CME.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently above the S3 (Strong) threshold.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations. In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive. You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.


2012-03-07 14:30   

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). So far we’ve observed G2 (Moderate) levels of storming in association with that event.  Conditions are currently decreasing for that event, so subsequent G2 storming is not expected at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE about a day from now and is certain to cause more geomagnetic storming.  Images of the CME from the SOHO LASCO coronograph have just backfilled so analysis is underway now to refine the prediction of arrival time and magnitude.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels have just crossed the S3 (Strong) threshold.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-07 12:36   

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). So far we’ve observed G2 (Moderate) levels of storming in association with that event.  Conditions are currently decreasing for that event, so subsequent G2 storming is not expected at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE about a day from now and is certain to cause more geomagnetic storming.  Images of the CME from the SOHO LASCO coronograph have just backfilled so analysis is underway now to refine the prediction of arrival time and magnitude.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently at S2 (Moderate) but are still on the rise at this time.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-07 04:24   CMEs: One Arrives, Another Likely Tomorrow

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). Look for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity in the next few hours. Another CME, part of the recent R3 (strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE about one day hence. Predictions are still being refined on this one. Finally a Solar Radiation Storm is now building as the higher energies are showing a response to the recent eruption. The S1 (minor) threshold should be surpassed in the next few hours. Updates here as conditions warrant.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-07 04:23   CMEs: One Arrives, Another Likely Tomorrow

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). Look for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity in the next few hours. Another CME, part of the recent R3 (strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE about one day hence. Predictions are still being refined on this one. Finally a Solar Radiation Storm is now building as the higher energies are showing a response to the recent eruption. The S1 (minor) threshold should be surpassed in the next few hours. Updates here as conditions warrant.

 

 

An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts, watch here for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely

An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts, watch here for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-05 15:32   Minor Solar Radiation Storm Likely

Recent activity from Region 1429 has caused an elevated level of solar protons near earth. It is expected that the protons will continue to slowly increase, reaching the S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm category in the next 24 hours. In addition, although the trajectory of the CME from early on March 5 is expected to largely miss earth, there may be isolated G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels from late March 6 thru March 7 (UTC). The responsible party for this activity, NOAA Region 1429, is capable of more of the same as it rotates nearer mid-disk. Updates here.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-05 15:30   Minor Solar Radiation Storm Likely

Recent activity from Region 1429 has caused an elevated level of solar protons near earth. It is expected that the protons will continue to slowly increase, reaching the S1 (minor)Solar Radiation Storm category in the next 24 hours. In addition, although the CME of the ejecta from early on March 5 is expected to largely miss earth, there may be isolated G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels from late March 6 thru March 7 (UTC). The responsible party for this activity, NOAA Region 1429, is capable of more of the same as it rotates nearer mid-disk. Updates here.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-05 07:02   Region 1429 Looks Threatening

Region 1429 is staying busy.  Late on March 4th it produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, having already produced an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout earlier in the day, as reported earlier.  The R3 event peaked at 11:09 pm EST.  Region 1429 continues to look threatening and will bear close scrutiny in the days to come.  Keep watching this site for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-05 07:01   Region 1492 Looks Threatening

 

Region 1429 is staying busy.  Late on March 4th it produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, having already produced an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout earlier in the day, as reported earlier.  The R3 event peaked at 11:09 pm EST.  Region 1429 continues to look threatening and will bear close scrutiny in the days to come.  Keep watching this site for updates.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-04 17:24   Hot Active Region Erupting

An R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout today at 1216 UTC (7:16 a.m. EST) is the latest shot from growing Region 1429. This event is likely to have included a CME, but given the far eastern location of the active center, it is not likely to be geoeffective (analysis of that now occurring). Watch the evolution of this group over the next few days as it rotates to a more central location. Updates will be found here.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-03 20:34   

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-03-02 18:46   R1 Radio Blackout

An R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout occurred at 1746 UTC (12:46 p.m. EST) today, March 2. The site of the eruption was a new region just now appearing on the Northeast limb. SWPC Forecasters will be monitoring this area closely as it further reveals itself over the next 24 hours. Look for updates here.

__________

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

__________

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-28 21:26   

POES data products will be temporarily unavailable beginning February 29th while SWPC upgrades IT systems. This upgrade will ensure the long term security and robustness of our operations.  In the meantime, please refer to the Ovation Auroral Forecast test product which provides similar information to the POES Auroral plots and is also predictive.  You can find Ovation at: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-27 22:15   

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-27 21:51   

The CME observed on 24 February affected Earth right on schedule. The SWPC WSA-Enlil model predicted arrival at 26/2000 UT (1500 EST) and the shock was seen at the ACE Spacecraft at 26/2058 UT. We've seen only low-level geomagnetic storming from this event with a single, isolated period reaching the G1 (Minor) level. Further significant storming is not expected at this time. Follow us on Facebook for more information.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-27 15:02   

The CME observed on 24 February affected Earth right on schedule.  The SWPC WSA-Enlil model predicted arrival at 26/2000 UT (1500 EST) and the shock was seen at the ACE Spacecraft at 26/2058 UT.  Storming from this event looks to be minimal and we have not reached the isolated G1 (Minor) levels we indicated were possible.  No further activity is expected at this time.  Follow us on Facebook for more information.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-25 16:11   

The coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption on the 24th looks like it will affect Earth late on the 26th or early on the 27th UTC (evening of the 26th or early morning on the 27th EST). This is not expected to be a direct hit, but nonetheless, low-level geomagnetic storming is expected with isolated G1 (Minor) storming possible.  Additionally, a low-level enhancement to the solar radiation storm levels is also ongoing, bringing the levels just above background but still below threshold.  Follow us on Facebook for more information.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-25 16:03   

The coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption on the 24th looks like it will affect Earth late on the 26th or early on the 27th. This is not expected to be a direct hit, but nonetheless, low-level geomagnetic storming is expected with isolated G1 (Minor) storming possible.  Additionally, a low-level enhancement to the solar radiation storm levels is also ongoing, bringing the levels just above background but still below threshold.  Follow us on Facebook for more information.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly Bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-21 17:45   Weekly Time Change

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-19 06:41   Minor Geomagnetic Storming

G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are occurring as a consequence of somewhat elevated solar wind speeds and enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. Forecasters expect this to be the height of the disturbance. Watch here for updates.

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-17 22:22   SWPC Weekly Bulletin Change in Delivery Day

Beginning Monday, March 12, 2012, the Weekly bulletin will now be issued and available on the SWPC web page every Monday morning by 1500 UT (10am EST).  The Weekly is currently issued on Tuesdays.


2012-02-15 22:32   Low Level Geomagnetic Storm Activity Expected

A prolonged episode of southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field, the condition that most effectively rattles the earth's magnetic field, is occurring today as anticipated. Possibly connected to transient flow, the situation is causing forecasters to issue a warning for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity through 0600 UTC,16 February ( 1:00 am EST, 16 February). Watch here for updates.


2012-02-15 22:31   Low Level Geomagnetic Storm Activity Expected

A prolonged episode of southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field, the condition that most effectively rattles the earth's magnetic field, is occurring today as anticipated. Possibly connected to transient flow, the situation is causing forecasters to issue a warning for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity through 0600 UTC,16 February ( 1:00 am EST 16 February). Watch here for updates.


2012-02-06 19:01   ACE Tracking Difficulties

SWPC’s partners that track the ACE satellite have begun to see problems with tracking ACE.  The orbit of the ACE spacecraft is about to take it directly in line with the Sun, as seen from Earth.  This will happen on February 8th, but ACE is already so close to the Sun that ground stations are having trouble.  The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the signal from ACE difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation will get worse over the next two days and will then improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).  These problems are temporary, but are expected to continue for the next 4 or more days.


2012-02-01 16:30   SWPC and KSWC partner to bring in ACE data

SWPC welcomes the Korean Radio Research Agency’s Space Weather Center as a partner in the space weather enterprise.  As of February 1, 2012 the Space Weather Center's new tracking station on Jeju Island is being used to provide critical tracking and downlink of real-time data from the NASA ACE satellite.  This addition helps to ensure there is continuous real-time data available from ACE, which is used to provide critical warnings of geomagnetic storms to a wide variety of SWPC customers.


2012-01-31 14:54   More Normal Conditions Now Prevail

With the continued decline of the Solar Radiation Storm, now below S1 (Minor), and the sideswipe from the CME yesterday, space weather has returned to more benign conditions. Check here for any changes.


2012-01-30 17:15   CME Arrival at Earth from the X1-solar flare

A pulse in the solar wind passed the ACE spacecraft around 1540 UTC (10:40 EST) today. This abrupt increase in speed and magnetic field strength is thought to be from a CME on Friday, January 27. No significant geomagnetic storm activity is expected from this. Another effect of Friday's eruption, a Solar Radiation Storm, continues its leisurely decay and is nearing the end of the event (currently at S1 (Minor) levels).


2012-01-29 14:13   Solar Radiation Storm is in Decline

The Solar Radiation Storm associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout from January 27th is in decline and levels have now decreased below S2 (Moderate) levels.  No further significant activity is expected at this time, but stay tuned for updates.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-28 05:26   S2-Solar Radiation Storms Continue

NOAA Region 1402 continued to generate activity with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout around 1830Z (1:30 PM Eastern) on January 27th.  The Solar Radiation Storm scale, which had crossed below the S2 (Moderate) threshold less than 48 hours prior, is still above the S2 threshold but now appears to be leveling off and showing the first signs of decay.  Given the location of the region and the fact that the impressive coronal mass ejection associated with this event was directed away from Earth, significant geomagnetic storm activity is not expected from this event.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1402 continues its trek around the limb and out of view.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-28 05:22   S2-Solar Radiation Storms Continue

NOAA Region 1402 continued to generate activity with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout around 1:30 PM Eastern on January 27th.  The Solar Radiation Storm scale, which had crossed below the S2 (Moderate) threshold less than 48 hours prior, is still above the S2 threshold but now appears to be leveling off and showing the first signs of decay.  Given the location of the region and the fact that the impressive coronal mass ejection associated with this event was directed away from Earth, significant geomagnetic storm activity is not expected from this event.  Stay tuned for updates as Region 1402 continues its trek around the limb and out of view.  Also, follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-27 22:26   S2-Solar Radiation Storms

S2-Solar Radiation storms are in effect. R3 Radio Blackouts were observed at around 1830Z. Also, Protons, greater than 100 MeV, are above the 1 pfu threshold.  A CME was also observed, associated with this event, however initial analysis shows this CME as not being Earth directed. Follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-27 20:08   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

S1-Solar Radiation storms are in effect. R3 Radio Blackouts were observed at around 1830Z. Also, Protons, greater than 100 MeV, are above the 1 pfu threshold.  A CME was also observed, associated with this event, however initial analysis shows this CME as not being Earth directed. Follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-27 18:45   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

R3 Radio Blackouts are in effect. An X1.7 X-ray flare was observed at 1840Z from Region 1402.  A warning has been issued for a S1 - Solar radiation storm. This warning is in effect for the next 24 hours. Follow us on Facebook for more information.


2012-01-25 21:00   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

 

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards quiet levels. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves to rotate off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days.  For more information, you can also follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-25 19:15   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

 

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet.

The S3 solar radiation storm that yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized areas of the northern latitudes. However, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours.

We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves to rotate off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days.


2012-01-25 18:56   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet. The S3 solar radiation storm that  yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized area of the northern latitudes however, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA  G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves toward rotating off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days. You can also follow us on Facebook (http://tinyurl.com/6csvflm).


2012-01-25 18:49   Conditions Now Trending Back Towards Normal

After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity which ensued, conditions are now beginning to trend back towards a return to quiet. The S3 solar radiation storm that  yesterday reached the highest levels since October 2003, has since recovered to the S2 level and is expected to continue to trend towards quiet conditions over the next day or two. Residual effects from the CME were seen early this morning (UTC day) as isolated occurrences of geomagnetic storms consistent with G1 levels were seen in localized area of the northern latitudes however, geomagnetic activity is currently at conditions below the NOAA  G-Scale thresholds and is expected to return to quiet background levels within the next 24 hours. We are continuing to monitor the source region that produced this week's activity as it moves toward rotating off the visible disk of the sun in the next few days. We are posting frequent updates on the SWPC Facebook page, which you can follow us here (http://tinyurl.com/6csvflm.


2012-01-24 19:42   G1 and S3 Storms in Progress!

G1 - Geomagnetic Storm in Progress. G2 - Geomagnetic Storm warning in effect.  S3 - Solar Radiation Storm  in Progress. This Solar Radiation Storm is the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003.
For more information, please follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-24 18:40   Largest Solar Radiation Storm since 2003

With the arrival of the CME today around 1500Z, the energetic particles increased again. Protons greater than 10 MeV increased to around 6300 pfu. This makes this Solar Radiation Storm the largest Solar Radiation storm since October 2003.
For more information, please follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-24 14:49   CME Arrival at the ACE Spacecraft

 

CME arrival at ACE!!!
SWPC forecaster predicted the arrival of the CME from 23 January around 1400Z on 24 January.  Around 1433Z today,  the CME was seen arriving at the ACE Spacecraft. SWPC forecasters are expecting this CME to arrive here at Earth in about 30 minutes. A G1-Geomagnetic Storm warning has been issued until 0100Z on 25 January.  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-23 22:43   The Radiation Storm Continues...

 The radiation storm that began early this morning has continued to rise very slowly throughout the day but has remained at the S3 (Strong) level.  It should be at or near its peak and is expected to begin to decrease soon.  We are still awaiting the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection which is still expected at about 9am EST (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.  The SWPC forecast is for Moderate (G2) level geomagnetic storming with G3 levels possible.  An animation from the WSA-Enlil model showing the Coronal Mass Ejection and its trip from the Sun to the Earth is available here.   Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-23 15:01   Geomagnetic Storm Expected Tuesday, Jan 23

As the strongest Solar Radiation Storm (S3) since May, 2005 continues, the associated Earthward-directed Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive about 1400 UT (9am EST) Jan 24.  SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch with G2 level storming likely and G3 level storming possible, with the storm continuing into Wednesday, Jan 25.  All of this activity is related to a moderate (R2) Radio Blackout x-ray flare that erupted Sunday night (11pm EST).  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-23 07:02   Largest Solar Radiation Storm Since 2005 in Progress

The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth.  Geomagnetic storming is a near certainty from this event, pending preliminary analysis no estimates are available yet for timing or strength of the storm.  The associated solar flare peaked at the R2 (Moderate) level on January 23 at 0400 GMT (11pm Jan 22 EST).  Updates will be posted here as we learn more or follow us on Facebook.


2012-01-20 16:35   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.


2012-01-19 23:10   UPDATE -- CME from Center Disk Today

Following on from earlier today, an eruption from NOAA Region 1402 at 1605 UTC (11:05 EST) today included an earth-directed CME. Forecasters expect it to impact the geomagnetic field this weekend. Analysis is ongoing as to the strength of this impending disturbance. Check here for updates.

 

NOAA Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth's magnetic field. Keep watch here through the weekend as conditions unfold.


2012-01-19 16:18   Bright Active Complex near Mid-Disk

NOAA Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth's magnetic field. Keep watch here through the weekend as conditions unfold.


2012-01-06 00:20   Important Product Outage Notice (Jan 9 and Jan 10)

Due to necessary system maintenance there will be two short outages of SWPC products on Monday January 9th and Tuesday January 10th.  On Jan 9 beginning at 1400UT (0900 US EST) the SWPC web page will not update for up to one hour.  On Jan 10 at 1400UT, there will be an outage of almost all SWPC products, including the ability to issue watches, warnings, and alerts for up to one hour.  However, if significant space weather activity is underway or imminent, these outages will be postponed.


2011-12-29 22:25   No Significant Storming

The potential for episodes of G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storms has declined, as more normal conditions are now occurring. More of the same anticipated the next few days.


2011-12-27 15:08   Minor Geomagnetic Activity Possible

Coronal Mass Ejections from the last few days may cause isolated periods of G1(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Activity on December 28-29. Updates here as appropriate.


2011-12-15 17:35   Geomagnetic Product Transition Complete

UPDATE: As of Monday, December 12, SWPC has adopted a better way to characterize geomagnetic activity. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings are now based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-12-15 17:06   Geomagnetic Product Transition Complete

UPDATE: As of last Monday, December 12, SWPC has adopted a better way to characterize geomagnetic activity. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings are now based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-12-06 22:23   

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-12-06 18:41   Solar Wind Data Restored

The ACE data are once again available, just after 1800 UTC.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-12-06 18:38   

 

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-12-06 14:58   Solar Wind Data Out

A serious issue related to the processing of the ACE data has caused a prolonged outage, beginning near the start of today. Activities to fix the problem are now in full form.

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-29 17:56   

 

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-28 23:09   Solar Wind Pulse

A sharp pulse seen by the ACE spacecraft may herald the beginning of a geomagnetic disturbance. The pulse occurred just after 2100 UTC (4 p.m. EST), and as yet both solar wind speed and magnetic field strength, though elevated and enhanced, are not indicating significant imminent geomagnetic storm activity.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

 

 

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-28 16:02   

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-26 16:23   Minor Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

An S1 (minor) solar radiation storm began a few hours ago and continues. The source of this event is not clear, although there has been CME and very small long-duration x-ray flare activity that preceded it. SWPC forecasters are lookng for a return to more normal conditions over the next 24 hours.

 

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-26 16:14   Minor Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

An S1 (minor) solar radiation radiation began a few hours ago and continues. The source of this event is not clear, although there has been CME and very small long-duration x-ray flare activity that preceded it. SWPC forecasters are lookng for a return to more normal conditions over the next 24 hours.

 

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-18 15:33   Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-15 03:46   

ACE Tracking Difficulties:

The ACE spacecraft is currently near the Sun-Earth line, causing the satellite dishes used to track ACE to be pointed very close to the Sun. The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the ACE signal difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar RFI or solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation is expected to improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite:

UPDATE: To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th. On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-14 19:51   Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

 

UPDATE:  To ensure a smooth transition for all of our customers, the change in geomagnetic products originally scheduled for November 16th has been postponed until December 12th.  On December 12th the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap. For more details, see here.


2011-11-12 22:37   

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-11-10 17:21   Revise that last entry. Minor geomagnetic storm now expected!


The Coronal Mass Ejection that erupted in conjunction with the minor solar flare at 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) on November 9th, is now bearing down on Earth.  It's a moderately fast CME that is expected to arrive early in the day on November 12 (GMT).  SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Minor storm levels on November 12.  Aurora are only expected to be visible at high latitudes.  The WSA-Enlil model run showing the event arriving at Earth is available here.

 

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-11-10 00:26   Lots of activity, but mostly missing Earth.


At 8:30am EST (13:30 GMT) November 9th a minor (R1) solar flare erupted on the Sun.  In addition to this flare, there have been several coronal mass ejections from the Sun in the past day.  None of them appear to be headed directly towards Earth, but impacts may still be felt.  We are waiting for more data to come in to fully assess the potential impacts on Earth.  Stay tuned to this website for updates as we learn more.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-11-06 17:44   

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-11-04 01:39   The First of a String?

NOAA 1339 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout at 2027 UTC (4:27 pm EDT) on November 3. If a CME occurred, chances are it is not earth-directed given the far eastern  eruption site on the solar disk. Stay tuned on that bit. The large, bright active region remains potent. Odds are good there's more to come.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-11-03 15:06   A benevolent monster of a region?

A monster of an active region, NOAA number 11339, has rotated on to the Earth-facing side of the Sun.  This is the largest active region in almost seven years, since January 2005.  It has produced only a few minor flares so far, but SWPC will be keeping a close eye on it to watch for any threatening behavior.  This region is likely to remain a threat for the 11 days or so it will take to rotate back to the far side of the Sun.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-31 15:54   

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-28 18:52   Back to back glancing blows

Two days ago a Coronal Mass Ejection erupted from the Sun that looks like Earth will just catch the edge of.  Yesterday, the Sun launched another CME that looks to also have us just catching the edge.  Overall, no major space weather impacts are expected.  The SWPC run of the WSA-Enlil model for these two CME's shows the second one catching up to the first one just as they arrive at Earth.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-27 22:24   Another geomagnetic storm on the horizon?

Nothing significant is expected.  The results from the latest run of the WSA-Enlil model are in and indicate a mid-day Sunday Oct 30 (GMT, early EDT) arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection that erupted from the Sun on Oct 26th.  This slow moving CME will hit Earth with a glancing blow and is not expected to cause significant space weather activity.  The WSA-Enlil model run for this event is available by following this link.

Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-27 15:25   Changes to Geomagnetic Product Suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-25 12:51   Geomagnetic Storming and the Aurora

The Coronal Mass Ejection observed Saturday morning arrived late Monday (EDT and GMT), about 8 hours earlier than model guidance suggested.  A single period reaching the G2 (Moderate) level was observed followed by several periods of G1 (Minor) storming.  While not a terribly significant geomagnetic storm, it did happen at a time when most of the United States was dark or getting dark.  Couple that with the fact that large parts of the US had very clear skies, and you've got some beautiful sightings of the aurora across the northern tier of the US.  Unfortunately for sky watchers, the geomagnetic storm appears to be in decline and no further significant space weather is expected at this time.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-24 23:27   October 22 CME has arrived

The Coronal Mass Ejection observed Saturday morning arrived earlier today (Monday, EDT and GMT), about 8 hours earlier than model guidance suggested.  Significant space weather is not expected.  Early phases of the event have reached the G1 level, but that should be close to the peak level seen in this event. 

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-24 14:26   The Sun is trying, but not hard enough

The Sun is trying, but it's only managing to throw some weak stuff Earth's way.  One coronal mass ejection (CME) off the Sun's west limb on Saturday Oct 22 (EDT and GMT) caused a small increase in high energy protons at Earth, just enough to cross the S1 threshold for a short period of time.  Another CME looks like it's going to brush by Earth on Tuesday (EDT and GMT), giving us at best very weak geomagnetic storm activity, not expected to hit even the G1 level.  You can see the results of the WSA-Enlil model run for the CME that's going to brush by Earth here.  Moderate solar flare activity is possible for the next few days.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-23 03:17   The Sun is trying, but not hard enough

The Sun is trying, but it's only managing to throw some weak stuff Earth's way.  One coronal mass ejection (CME) off the Sun's west limb on Saturday Oct 22 (EDT and GMT) caused a small increase in high energy protons at Earth, but not enough to trip any alerts.  Another CME looks like it's going to brush by Earth on Tuesday (EDT and GMT), giving us at best very weak geomagnetic storm activity, not expected to hit even the G1 level.  You can see the results of the WSA-Enlil model run for the CME that's going to brush by Earth here.  Moderate solar flare activity is possible for the next few days.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-19 17:52   Improving Geomagnetic Storm Predictions with WSA-Enlil

The prediction of geomagnetic storms just got a whole lot better, thanks to the WSA-Enlil space weather model now running on  NOAA supercomputers.  The WSA-Enlil model helps SWPC narrow forecasts of storm arrival times from a 30-hour window down to a 12-hour window. "Ambient" model runs, which do not include coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are run every two hours - results are here. When a CME threatens, the model is run in a different mode and the most recent results are here (This page currently features a series of CME’s that erupted Oct 1-2). Read more in NOAA's press release.

Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-17 22:55   Changes to geomagnetic product suite

On November 16 the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) will be making numerous changes to its geomagnetic product suite. SWPC’s nowcast and forecast products, alerts, watches, and warnings will transition to be based on an estimate or prediction of the Planetary indices Kp and Ap.  For more details see here.


2011-10-06 17:08   Calm for the foreseeable future?

The geomagnetic storm from yesterday never amounted to anything more than a minor (G1) storm and no impacts to users were reported to NOAA.  Space Weather is calm and is expected to remain calm for the next few days, at least.


2011-10-05 20:43   Minor geomagnetic storm in progress

Minor geomagnetic storming (G1 on the Geomagnetic Storm Scale) is underway following the arrival at Earth of 1 or more Coronal Mass Ejections that erupted from the Sun late last week and into the weekend.  Activity is not expected to strengthen much beyond current levels.  For more frequent updates on this activity and on space weather in general, check out the SWPC Facebook page.


2011-09-29 15:02   Ongoing Geomagnetic Activity

The three-day old geomagnetic disturbance just won't go away. Episodes of G2 (Moderate) conditions are still occurring, fueled by the still-turbulent solar wind streaming past earth. Look for things to quiet over the next 24 hours.


2011-09-28 17:28   Geomagnetic Activity Persists

The ongoing G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm which began September 26 lingers. The solar wind has returned to more normal conditions and the parent region, NOAA Region 1302, has been less active.


2011-09-28 17:27   Geomagnetic Activity Persists

The ongoing G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm which began September 26 is on the decline. The solar wind has returned to more normal conditions and the parent region, NOAA Region 1302, has been less active.


2011-09-27 17:33   Update on the September 26/27 Geomagnetic Storm

The Geomagnetic Storm that began yesterday is quieting down, though we aren’t quite back to quiet conditions yet.  High speed solar wind is coming in behind the Coronal Mass Ejection and these winds are keeping things slightly active on the space weather front.  The region on the Sun that produced this activity is in a favorable position to cause further problems, but it is starting to weaken.  It remains a threat, though diminishing.  Yesterday, there would have been problems with high accuracy GPS and there was a noted issue with the FAA’s Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), where the Vertical Error Limit was exceeded.  WAAS is used to provide high accuracy GPS in the areas around airports.  Much more information about this storm is available on the SWPC Facebook page.


2011-09-26 19:00   

The fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 arrived this morning at 1237Z (8:37am Eastern Time).  It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity.  Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this event, though it may persist long enough for viewers in North America.  The bulk of the CME missed the Earth, meaning the storm intensity and duration are less than what they would have been in the case of a direct hit.  We are posting frequent updates on the SWPC Facebook page, which you can follow (here).


2011-09-24 22:00   

NOAA Region 1302 remains impressive and active as it continues its transit across the visible disc.  As shown in the GOES X-ray plot below, 1302 produced an R3 (Strong) and multiple R2 (Moderate) flares today.  Intermittent degradation to High Frequency communications occurs on the daylight side of the Earth during each respective flare.  Also, the slow rise of energetic protons near Earth has flattened out and we are hovering right around the S1 threshold (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scales).  A fairly fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with the long duration R2 flare is partially directed at Earth (long duration meaning long-lasting in time and wider in the graph below, as opposed to the impulsive flares that spike quickly).  We won?t see the bulk of this CME, but a glancing blow is predicted for late evening Eastern Time on the 25th (or right around start of day GMT on the 26th).  Geomagnetic Storm levels reaching the G1 (Minor) level are likely with isolated G2 (Moderate) possible, particularly at high latitudes.  1302 remains active so stay tuned for further updates.


2011-09-22 17:00   

Newly numbered NOAA Region 1302 (the bright area in the upper left of the NOAA/GOES-15 SXI image shown below) produced an X1 (NOAA Scale R3 ? Strong) flare peaking at 7:01 AM Eastern (11:01 GMT) this morning.  This flare did have an impressive coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it.  However, given the location of Region 1302, this CME was not directed at Earth.  Activity from this location can also increase the population of energetic protons near Earth (NOAA Solar Radiation Storm Scale), but these enhancements would be slow rising.  This region is just now rotating into view, so the potential for continued activity is certainly there.  Stay tuned for updates.


2011-09-17 14:30   

The Coronal Mass Ejection arrived overnight, as forecast. So far, the geomagnetic response has been underwhelming, but possibilities for reaching Minor (G1) Geomagnetic Storm levels remain as long as we are under the influence of the CME. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels mid-afternoon Eastern Time (evening GMT).


2011-09-15 17:00   

A filament eruption from very early on the 14th resulted in a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).  This CME was relatively slow-moving, but it's passage is likely to be noticed early evening to late day on the 16th, Eastern Time (end-of-day on the 16th or early on the 17th, GMT).  Significant geomagnetic storming is not expected but periods reaching the G1 (Minor) level are possible.  Follow this link for more information on the NOAA Geomagnetic Storm Scales and the associated impacts: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms.  High latitude auroral watchers should be on the alert for some activity.
Also, now follow us on Facebook under NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center.


2011-09-09 19:00   

The Geomagnetic Storm intensified to G2 (Moderate) due to prolonged southward Bz. But the solar wind magnetic field vector has weakened in the last hour, so possibly the teeth of the storm has now just passed. More updates later.


2011-09-09 14:00   

Now seeing the beginning of disturbed solar wind conditions in the past few hours. G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming now occurring. Watch here as the activity unfolds.


2011-09-08 14:00   

Now watching the solar wind for the pulse expected late tomorrow, September 9. The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout and its associated CME are not expected to play in to the isolated, low level -- G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm response -- expected through September 10.The source of this solar activity, Region 1283, has been like "Old Faithful." Is there another flare to come around 2200Z today? Keep watch.


2011-09-07 23:00   

Twenty four hours after unleashing an R3 (Strong) Solar Radio Blackout, the same region on the Sun has done it again.  Occurring at 2237Z (6:37 p.m., EDT) an R3 solar flare is still in progress at this time.  Until more data come in, we won't know if there is potential for additional Geomagnetic Storm activity from this event to add to the G1 (Minor) storming already predicted for September 9-10.  Continue to watch this space for updates.


2011-09-07 14:00   

Glancing blows from two Coronal Mass Ejections over the past 48 hours are expected to cause possibly short-lived G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin late on September 9. The CMEs were accompanied by two Radio Blackouts, the most recent - and strongest - at 2220Z (6:20 p.m., EDT) yesterday. NOAA Region 1283 spawned the activity and remains potent. Watch here for updates.


2011-09-06 23:00   

The Sun is staying active and reaching a bit higher, with an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout Event underway at this time.  This is from the same region near disk center mentioned in the last update.  There are preliminary indications there is a CME accompanying this flare, but we are waiting on coronagraph imagery to determine the speed and direction. 
As more information flows in, we'll provide updates.


2011-09-06 14:00   

An R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout Event occurred today at 0150Z. The source of the flare is a bright region near center disk with the potential to generate additional solar eruptive activity. Today's R2 was accompanied by a relatively weak, Earth-directed CME. This CME is not expected to cause significant Geomagnetic Storm activity and further analysis is currently underway to better refine the CME timing and magnitude.
More updates as conditions warrant.


2011-08-17 00:00   

We are currently experiencing an outage of the Boulder magnetometer data from USGS.  USGS is currently investigating the problem but root cause and estimate of return to service are unknown at this time.  As a backup, all SWPC geomagnetic products are currently using the USGS's Fredericksburg magnetometer, resulting in NO degradation of service in our alert and warning products (Fredericksburg carries the station id FRD in the following: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/).  Stay tuned for updates.


2011-08-17 00:00   

The USGS Boulder magnetometer data has been restored and SWPC is back to using that station as the primary feed for all geomagnetic products.


2011-08-09 14:00   

The largest flare of the solar cycle, an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout, alternatively classified as an X6, occurred today at 0805Z. Region 1263, now poised near the west limb, produced the event and a few others of lesser magnitude in the past day. The region remains hot at this writing.
A quick rise in the protons at GOES reached S1 (Minor) levels soon after the eruption. Given the location of the activity, any CMEs would likely be directed away from Earth so no significant Geomagnetic Storm activity is forecast.


2011-08-06 00:00   

More normal conditions have returned, now that the solar wind has calmed since early today. At the Sun, Regions 1261 and1263 could still erupt before rotating off the disk. Forecasters are watching those.
Next up -- a high speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours, possibly bringing isolated G1 (Minor) levels. Keep tabs here for new developments.


2011-08-05 22:00   

In the wake of the shocked solar wind, G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions have been seen already, and a warning for G3 (Strong) Storming has been issued. Strong, Prolonged Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field and fast solar wind continue to fuel the disturbance.


2011-08-05 18:00   

The shock passed ACE just over 30 minutes ago; watch now for more geomagnetic and solar radiation storm activity.


2011-08-05 14:00   

Conditions have quieted since the arrival of the first shock late yesterday. Its passage did not excite the geomagnetic field much, as was predicted -- rather it's the still-expected jolt from two others still on the way. ACE low energy proton data show there's still a good chance of their arrival any time soon.
Meanwhile back at the Sun, the active regions that have been so productive the past few days have been either stable or in decay in the past day. Keep a watch here for further developments, both nearer the Earth or back at the Sun.


2011-08-04 23:00   

The first of the three shocks arrived at 2155Z, about one hour ago.  So far, only slight disturbances to the geomagnetic field, but there is plenty of action still anticipated.  See a video of a SWPC researcher talking about this activity and what we can expect: Video


2011-08-04 15:00   

Great anticipation for the first of what may be three convergent shocks to slam the geomagnetic field in the next twelve hours, +/-. The CME with the Radio Blackout earlier today is by far the fastest, and may catch its forerunners in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) -- at earth. Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible.

Updates here as conditions develop.


2011-08-04 13:00   

Yet another eruption from Region 1261 caused a Solar Radiation Storm, currently S1 (Minor), to occur earlier today. There may be another kick to it in 12 hours or so, when a shock is expected from a CME of a few days ago. Watch here for new developments.


2011-08-03 20:00   The protons have trickled in at GOES, but at a low level

Seemingly the Solar Radiation Storm threat is off the table, at least for now. The protons may again increase with the arrival of the shock driven by the CME that left the Sun yesterday. That arrival is expected very late August 4 (UTC) or early August 5th.

The R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout of today (1348Z max) was accompanied by yet another earthbound CME. That one is anticipated to pass earth on August 7th. Early indications are that G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming is most likely the extent of it. Watch here for more.


2011-08-03 00:00   Eruptive activity continues from mid-disk

A just-occurring R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout, likely from Region 1261, may presage an imminent Solar Radiation Storm. Keep watching for more information.


2011-08-02 21:00   

Further analysis of the CME from center disk earlier today suggests G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin very late (UTC) on August 4, and linger for approximately 24 hours. High latitudes may experience isolated intervals of G2 (Moderate) conditions.


2011-08-02 00:00   Region 1261 produced an earth-directed CME and an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout earlier today

This eruption was not unexpected, and also caused the energetic protons measured by the GOES satellites to become enhanced. Early indications are for increased geomagnetic activity with the CME passage around August 4-5. Check this space for updates.


2011-07-14 00:00   Happy Bastille Day!

Eleven years ago, the Sun contributed to the fireworks with flares, CMEs, radiation and geomagnetic storms that would become to be known as -- you guessed it -- the Bastille Day Storms of 2000. Now into the new cycle, activity of this scale is unlikely any time soon, but be prepared for it when it comes.


2011-06-24 00:00   

High speed winds have been buffeting the Earth for the past two days and look set to continue for a few more.  However, the CME that erupted on June 21 appears to have slid by the Earth without having any noticeable impact.  The active regions on the Sun today are all small and magnetically simple so the forecast is for space weather to remain calm.


2011-06-22 00:00   

NOAA forecasts, supported by guidance from the WSA-Enlil solar wind model, are projecting CME arrival mid to late day UTC on June 23.  The CME does appear to be clearly Earth-directed, so some effect is almost certain.  The bulk of the disturbance is still expected on June 24, with G1 (Minor) and isolated G2 (Moderate) levels of Geomagnetic Storming expected for the duration of the event.  High latitude aurora watchers should be on alert Thursday and Friday night.
No significant additional activity has occurred or is forecast at this time.  There is only one significant active region, Region 1236, and that region has been relatively quiet and stable since the activity that initiated this CME.


2011-06-21 00:00   

The Sun kicked off summer (for us in the northern hemisphere) by launching a CME early today that appears to be Earth directed. Expect G1 (Minor), with isolated, short-lived G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity to begin early June 24. Watch here for updates.


2011-06-10 00:00   

Apart from an increase in turbulence in the solar wind late yesterday, little was seen at ACE from the dramatic flare/CME of June 7. Consider the coast being now clear, and await the next piece of the space weather intrigue to be doled out by our nearest star.


2011-06-08 00:00   

The wait for the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) continues. As it is expected to make but a glancing blow on the Earth's magnetic field, the timing of the impact is difficult (much more straightforward for a direct hit). Look for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions from 1200 UTC tomorrow (June 9) through June 10.  The possibility remains for heightened Radiation Storm levels with the passage of the CME shock, but nothing greater than S2 (moderate) is forecast.


2011-06-07 00:00   

A dramatic eruption from an otherwise unimpressive NOAA Region 1226 earlier today is expected to cause G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) levels of Geomagnetic Storm activity tomorrow, June 8, beginning around 1800 UTC with the passage of a fast CME. A prompt Solar Radiation Storm reached the S1 (minor) level soon after the impulsive R1 (minor) Radio Blackout at 0641 UTC. The Solar Radiation Storm includes a significant contribution of high energy (>100 MeV) protons, the first such occurrence of an event of that type since December 2006.

Watch here for updates on the impending Geomagnetic Storm and the potentially developing Solar Radiation Storm.


2011-06-07 00:00   

Now with the benefit of more information and model input, the prediction for Geomagnetic Storm activity has been revised. The models have the trajectory of the CME to pass Earth with just a glancing blow, now expected to occur around 1200 UTC on June 9. Expect primarily G1 (minor) NOAA Scale levels then, and for the storm to persist for 24 hours.  The intensity of the Solar Radiation Storm is expected to be little affected by the passage of the CME-driven shock.


2011-06-06 00:00   The G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming, predicted on Friday, has now subsided

Today's condition of note is the enhancement to the >10 MeV protons at GOES. These values slowly increased on June 5-6, the likely the result of CME activity far beyond west limb seen by STEREO. Fluxes are expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.


2011-06-03 00:00   Minor Geomagnetic Storming Expected

On June 2nd, a moderately fast Coronal Mass Ejection erupted from the Sun aimed directly at the Earth.  As a result, SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Saturday, June 4th.  It is expected that storming will only reach the lowest level, G1, on the NOAA Space Weather Scale.  The most recent model guidance continues to agree with the initial forecast that the geomagnetic storm will occur June 4th.  Aurora are only likely to be visible in those places that are known for regular sightings of those beautiful lights in the sky.


2011-05-19 00:00   ACE Tracking Outages

We have experienced recent outages from ACE due to several stations having problems that are expected to continue for some time.  Solar radio interference on the one hand and equipment problems exacerbated by the continued effects of the recent Japanese tsunami on the other.  SWPC and our partners in the Air Force and at NASA are working hard to fill the gaps in these critical data.


2011-05-16 00:00   

GOES-15 Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) animations for numerous filter, exposure and period combinations are now available.


2011-05-02 00:00   

The 2011 Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF) will be held June 21, 2011.


2011-04-06 00:00   G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming is occurring today

The solar wind has a southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuating around -10 nT, and the speed is up too, around 500 km/s. The source of this pulse is not entirely clear, although there have been limb CMEs in the past few days. Keep tabs of this activity here.


2011-03-21 00:00   Parting Shot

Region 1169, now more than three days beyond west limb, produced a CME early today that resulted in an S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm. This "just enough" event surpassed the threshold at 1950 UTC today, and is expected to wane over the next 12-18 hours.


2011-03-18 00:00   

As a result of the significant damage in Japan, one of SWPC's partners in the continuous tracking of the ACE spacecraft, the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) of Japan, has been experiencing rolling blackout power outages. This has resulted in a loss of ACE tracking and corresponding data gaps in the real-time ACE solar wind data during NICT's window of tracking responsibility. These data outages could occur anytime between 2300-0700 UTC and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.


2011-03-16 00:00   NCEP Unveils New Quarterly Newsletter

NCEP is pleased to announce the first edition of NCEP's online Newsletter, which will appear on a quarterly basis.  The newsletter, suggested as a result of a review of NCEP conducted by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research (UCAR), will be distributed to NCEP customers and partners to keep them apprised of the breadth of NCEP activities.  The newsletter can be accessed via a link from NCEP's homepage (http://www.ncep.noaa.gov ), as well as from links from each of the NCEP Centers.


2011-03-14 00:00   Registration is open for Space Weather Workshop, 2011

SWPC's annual get together is coming soon, to be here in Boulder at the Millennium Hotel from April 26-29. Once again the program includes the latest in applications, model transition, agency news, and science. Use the link below, "Space Wx Workshop," to register.


2011-03-11 00:00   

Enhanced Interplanetary Magnetic Field conditions are causing slightly elevated Geomagnetic activity today. Back at the Sun, Region 1166, though less impressive, still remains potent. Forecasters are watching that one.


2011-03-10 00:00   Shock Arrival

The shock driven by the fast CME from earlier this week passed ACE at about 0600 UTC today. It experienced considerable deceleration in its travel, so its impact on the magnetosphere was not significant. Back at the Sun, Region 1166 produced an R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout late (UTC) on the day on March 9. Watch for more activity from that centrally located region today.


2011-03-09 00:00   In the lurch?

The wait for shock from the very fast CME from late on March 7 continues. However, earlier today, around 0700 UTC, what may have been a fast shock passed the STEREO Ahead spacecraft, perched almost directly off the west limb.  The eruption came from near west limb. Looking for isolated G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic storming near midday (UTC) tomorrow, March 10.


2011-03-08 15:00   Activity Update

Shock Arrival Expected. A fast shock driven by a CME from late yesterday is expected to pass ACE in the next 3-6 hours. SWPC forecasters anticipate G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storms into the early hours of March 9 (UTC). The expected Geomagnetic Activity adds to the R1 (Minor ) and R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackouts, and the S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm of the past 24 hours. The disk is still hot, watch for updates.


2011-03-08 00:00   Models Indicate Later CME Arrival

Further analysis with ENLIL and other models now suggests the CME from nearly 24 hours ago, clocking a speed of more than 2000 km/s as it left the Sun, may not arrive until midday tomorrow, March 9. Intricacies relating to the density of the ambient solar wind ahead -- and the subsequent deceleration of the ejecta -- are expected to lengthen its travel time. When it does arrive, look for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic activity to follow.


2011-03-08 00:00   Activity Update

The final tally of M flares for March 7 was seven, wth Regions 11164, 11165, and 11166 all contributing towards that total. Regions 11164 ad 11166 each also gave us an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection. Further analysis is definitely warranted and expect further updates on the expected impacts of these CMEs. Finally, the CME associated with region 11164 has produced a weak proton storm at Earth that is in progress and still rising at the time of this update. These three regions are continuing to grow and we definitely expect high levels of solar activity to continue.


2011-03-07 00:00   Product Update

Due to confusion regarding the measures of geomagnetic storm intensity, the Boulder K plot is now shown in conjunction with, and just below, the Estimated Planetary K (Estimated Kp) plot. To enable real-time warnings and alerts of geomagnetic activity, Boulder K has been SWPC's long-standing real-time proxy for Kp.  SWPC Alerts, Warnings, and the indications of Geomagnetic Storms on the NOAA Space Weather Scale reference the Boulder K.  For more information regarding these two indices and their use, please see the note included on the NOAA Space Weather Scale page.


2011-03-07 00:00   Activity Update

Our news update on March 4 gave fair warning. Activity on the Sun has been at high levels, with 5 M-class flares so far today. These came from 3 different active regions on the Sun, with Region 11164 producing three of them. However, the M flare that was produced by Region 11166 has our eye, because it launched a Coronal Mass Ejection towards Earth at the same time. We'll have more on that later.


2011-03-04 00:00   

Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the east limb earlier today signal the imminent arrival of two active regions to the disk. Though neither of these CMEs is expected to cause any elevated Geomagnetic Storm activity, they may presage additional activity that could be geo-effective over the next two weeks. SWPC Forecasters will be watching for more.


2011-02-24 00:00   

Operational deployment of the Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model will take place March 9, 2011. The operational Costello geomagnetic activity products will be discontinued on March 23, 2011.


2011-02-19 00:00   

The geomagnetic storm has ended. The observations of the CME and the models of this solar eruption were unprecedented. Watch the literature in the future for studies of what will surely come to be known as the "Valentine's Day Event, 2011."


2011-02-18 00:00   

A long-awaited interplanetary shock, perhaps one of an ensemble of shocks, passed the ACE spacecraft about 0045 UTC on February 18. A sudden impulse followed about one hour later, measuring about 30 nT at Boulder. The storming is quite modest so far (0430 UTC), but likely to intensify as additional shocks pass by.  Watch here for updates.


2011-02-18 00:00   

A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm continues. What might have been three hits of shocks/CMEs seems to have merged to be just one interplanetary shock/CME structure. Look for about another day's worth of geomagnetic activity, pending additional treats in the solar wind. Elsewhere Region 1158 had another R2 (moderate) radio blackout, and fast-growing new Region 1162 likely generated an R1 (minor) event.


2011-02-17 00:00   

The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours. Back at the Sun, Region 1158 is still hot and fast-growing, Region 1161 is producing small flares.


2011-02-16 00:00   

The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.


2011-02-15 00:00   

The hits just keep on coming! Region 1158 produced the largest xray flare in more than 4 years, an X2.2, earlier today at 0156 UTC reaching the R3 (Strong) NOAA Scale level. A Coronal Mass Ejection occurred too, now lined up in the queue with the CME from Sunday's event and possibly another associated with the R1 Radio Blackout yesterday. Look for enhanced solar wind to begin later today, and become increasingly disturbed with the CME arrival(s) about 17 February.


2011-02-14 00:00   

The largest xray flare in over one year occurred yesterday at 1737 UTC. Region 1158 produced the impulsive R2 (Moderate) xray burst, part of the full eruption that also included a faint, earth-directed CME plus radio bursts across the spectrum. The region, still hot and flaring, yielded a small R1 (Minor) level xray burst today at 1726 UTC. Expect additional fireworks from this site over the next few days.


2011-02-11 00:00   

Region 11153 has rotated on to the far side of the Sun, having given us an M class flare and a handful of small C class flares over the past few days. Recently, there have been some small active regions appearing and disappearing that haven't bothered to produce any interesting activity and there are currently 4 of them on the disk. What has the attention of forecasters is the Sun's East limb, where old Region 11149 is just beginning to reappear having transited the far side of the Sun. During that transit, multiple coronal mass ejections were observed that were directed away from the Earth. If that region stays active, we could be in store for some interesting space weather in the days ahead as it moves towards the center of the solar disk.


2011-02-09 00:00   

Four, that's right, four new active regions popped up on the Sun yesterday. However, it was their older brethren, Region 11153 which appeared on Feb 4th, that finally decided to make some noise, giving us a moderately large M1.9 Solar Flare. This region has grown in size over the past two days and remains poised with the potential to produce some large solar flares. It's running out of time though, as it will rotate off the visible disk in two days time. We'll be keeping a close eye on Region 11153 and the four new regions in case they want to cause any more trouble.


2011-02-04 00:00   

SWPC webmaster retiring after four solar cycles.


2011-01-14 00:00   STEREO Behind In-situ data Resumes

The STEREO B IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments were able to recover this week without any problems and normal data flow has resumed following the autonomous shutdown on January 8, due to an unexpectedly high current.


2011-01-10 00:00   

On February 28, 2011 at 1800UT GOES 15 will Replace GOES 11 as Secondary SWPC GOES Proton, Electron and Magnetometer Satellite GOES-11 is the SWPC Secondary GOES satellite for particle and magnetometer measurements. Due to resource constraints, SWPC will stop collecting and processing GOES 11 space weather data at the end of February 2011. This is eight months prior to the currently scheduled official September 2011 replacement of the GOES 11 spacecraft. On February 28th at 1800UT, GOES 15, at 90 degrees longitude, will become the SWPC Secondary GOES particle and magnetometer satellite.


2011-01-10 00:00   

The STEREO Behind In-situ data (Solar Wind, Magnetic Field, and Particles) have been unavailable since late on January 8th.  An automated shutdown of the data processing unit on STEREO-B occurred when a current limit was violated.  It may take several days to recover and get the data flowing again.


2010-11-23 00:00   Wing Kp Model for Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Delayed Indefinitely

Operational deployment of the Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model has encountered technical problems. The scheduled November 29 release has been delayed indefinitely. The original Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index will continue to be available.


2010-11-16 00:00   

The model runs indicate the CME caused by the filament eruption will mostly, if not entirely, miss the Earth and high speed winds are no longer forecast for later in the week, so calm is expected for the foreseeable future. So then, what about those active regions sprouting up? Well, another one is coming around the East limb of the Sun today, just as one has disappeared.  We have had 4 active regions on the Sun most of the past week, but each typically with only a handful of sunspots and none of them very complex magnetically. Lots of spots and complex magnetic fields are the hallmarks of regions that can throw powerful space weather our way.


2010-11-15 00:00   

The high speed winds rolled in on Sunday, with no strong evidence for any of last week’s CMEs. The caution against any significant activity held true, as the Earth’s geomagnetic field has barely registered any impacts, even from the high speed wind. The high winds are expected to persist for another day or so. There was an additional CME on Saturday that resulted from a filament eruption arly in the day, and which is currently forecast to arrive on Thursday Nov 18. When model guidance becomes available, this forecast may change. More high speed winds are expected by the end of the current week. This looks like another week of relative quiet, even though the Sun keeps sprouting new active regions, keeping the sunspot number ticking upward.


2010-11-13 00:00   

As the region mentioned in the past few reports died away, one immediately behind it took root and grew into something to watch. That region, numbered 11123, along with a few others on the disk, combined to produce a flurry of small C-class flares. They also produced a number of weak to moderate coronal mass ejections, a few of which are now headed towards the Earth. Runs of the WSA/ENLIL model show a fast CME that erupted on Friday will sweep up some smaller events and then combine with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) to hit the Earth about midnight on Sunday (Eastern US time). Only isolated periods of minor geomagnetic storming is expected, so if you live where the aurorae aren’t normally visible, you’ll want to stay in bed.


2010-11-09 00:00   

Active Region 11121 hasn’t gone away, but after following up with another M-class flare over the weekend, it has gone rather quiet. It has decayed since the weekend but is now somewhat stable. It hasn’t produced much in the way of activity in the past two days and it doesn’t seem likely to produce much more fireworks, beyond the three M-class flares it has already produced. We’ll be keeping a close eye on it, just in case.


2010-11-05 00:00   

Newly numbered active region 11121 rotated into view yesterday and has already delivered two M-class solar flares.  The active region is visible in the lower left of the GOES X-ray Images shown below on the left.  These flares caused minor problems for high frequency communication users.  Keep an eye on the GOES X-ray Flux plot below on the right for more flares from the Sun.  Given the region's location on the East edge of the Sun, if this region can sustain its activity, we could be in store a lot of action in the next week as the region rotates closer to the center of the solar disk.


2010-10-25 00:00   

On November 29 the Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index will be replaced by the Wing Kp model for Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index. The Wing Kp model is known to perform well for large geomagnetic storms and includes both a 1 hour and a 4 hour advance prediction of activity. 


2010-10-13 00:00   GOES 15 to become Primary Satellite for X-ray and SXI data

On October 28 at 0000UT GOES 15 will become the Primary SWPC GOES X-ray and SXI satellite replacing GOES 14. GOES 14 will be put into storage mode. There are only minor differences in the appearance of the GOES 14 and GOES 15 X-ray data at the lowest flux levels.

There is no SWPC Secondary GOES X-ray or SXI satellite.


2010-10-12 00:00   Eruptive Filament and subsequent Halo CME

A dramatic eruption of a filament and subsequent halo coronal mass ejection (CME) lifted off from the Sun.  Moving at a ponderous 375 km/s (850,000 miles per hour), model runs show it is expected to take 4 days to reach Earth (Oct 10), having merged with a high-speed wind stream on the way.  The Earth will receive, at most, only a glancing blow from this event, as the bulk of it will miss us wide right.  The combination of high speed solar wind and the CME are expected to result in only a slight enhancement in geomagnetic activity this weekend.  All of this activity comes with no sunspots on the visible disk.
SDO images movie and annotation -- ENLIL Model movie and annotations


2010-09-09 00:00   Small Solar Proton Enhancement at Earth

NOAA active region 11105, which is just about to rotate off the solar disk, left us with small reminder that it is still here.  A moderately fast coronal mass ejection(CME), traveling at 1.6 million mph (760 km/s), and a small solar flare (x-ray flare class C3.3) erupted from the region very late on September 8.  The CME is directed well away from Earth, but probably right at the STEREO Ahead spacecraft and is expected to arrive there this weekend.  It did produce a very small solar proton enhancement at Earth, as can be seen by the tiny increase in the red trace in the Satellite Environment Plot - Proton Flux.  A larger increase in low energy protons was seen at the STEREO-A spacecraft. 


2010-08-24 00:00   Minor Geomagnetic Storming Expected from High Speed Solar Wind

Last night saw the expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (abbreviated CIR) and the subsequent high speed solar wind.  The wind speeds have exceeded 700 km/s (or 1.5 million miles/hour), which is approaching the fastest speeds seen for these types of events. The high winds are coming from a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which can be seen as a dark patch in the SXI image below.  These high speed winds should continue for at least 2 more days, buffeting the Earth and giving us some chances of minor geomagnetic storming.


2010-08-14 00:00   First Solar Radiation Storm of Solar Cycle 24

A small solar flare erupted on the Sun at about 6am EDT.  Associated with this flare was a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was partially directed towards the Earth.  Also associated with this event was a S1 or minor solar radiation storm on the NOAA Space Weather Scales.
The only impacts expected for a solar radiation storm of this magnitude are minor impacts to HF radio communications in the polar regions.  However, this is the first solar radiation storm of Solar Cycle 24 and the first solar radiation storm since December of 2006. 

At this time, the solar radiation storm has subsided below threshold levels.  However, oscillation around this threshold is possible for the next several hours.  Subsequent significant activity is not expected but there may be some level of geomagnetic storming on or around August 17th and 18th from the coronal mass ejection associated with this event.  Initial observations of the coronal mass ejection direction and velocity do not indicate a high likelihood of significant geomagnetic storming but the Space Weather Prediction Center will continue to monitor this event as it unfolds.  


2010-08-11 00:00   CME has little geomagnetic effect

The coronal mass ejection which erupted on August 7 arrived overnight August 10/11 and as expected provided nothing in the way of significant effects.  The only expected activity is a potential for high speed winds causing weak geomagnetic storming in 5 days.  The sun could always throw us a surprise, as there are four active regions on the Sun today.


2010-08-09 00:00   Minor Radio Blackout Event

A minor radio blackout event occurred at 2 pm EDT on Saturday, August 7 when an M1 flare erupted on the Sun.  Associated with the flare was a coronal mass ejection which is now headed towards Earth and is forecast to arrive on August 10.  Earth is expected to take only a glancing blow and no major geomagnetic storming is expected.  There was a slight increase in the number of protons, but they remain well below any alert threshold.


2010-08-03 00:00   Moderate Solar Weather Storm

A moderate space weather storm began August 3 at about 12:41pm EDT, reaching the G2 level on the geomagnetic storm scale which measures storms on a scale from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).  No significant customer impacts have been reported, though aurora sightings were reported from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  Elevated activity is forecast to continue through Friday as additional solar storms impact the Earth.


2010-01-19 00:00   NOAA Press Release

NOAA Scientist Finds Clue to Predicting Solar Flares


2009-12-01 00:00   GOES 14 Primary Satellite for XRS data

The GOES 10 satellite was decommissioned. GOES 14 became the Primary SWPC GOES X-ray Satellite.  Since the XRS data ceased from GOES 11 and GOES 12, there has been no Secondary SWPC GOES X-ray Satellite. There are minor differences in the appearance of the GOES 14 XRS data and at the lowest flux levels.


2009-11-18 00:00   Global D-Region Absorption Replaces original D-region Absorption Prediction product

The Global D-Region Absorption Prediction product replaced the original D-region Absorption Prediction product. The original D-region web page and products were developed at the then Space Environment Center in 2000.


2009-07-16 00:00   SWPC Outage Complete

SWPC systems were down for approximately 3 hours for a network system upgrade.


2009-04-15 00:00   Boulder Magnetometer Data Lists were Discontinued

The USGS, an acknowledged center of expertise for geomagnetism, assumed full responsibility for the Boulder magnetometer and its data. SWPC will continue to be a user of that data, but will no longer be the point of distribution of raw magnetometer data.  Therefore, the Boulder magnetometer DATA LISTS will no longer be available via SWPC.  However, the SWPC Boulder magnetometer web page will continue unchanged.

Carol Finn, USGS Geomagnetism Group Leader, (cafinn @ usgs.gov) is the point of contact for interested parties. Please direct any comments or questions to her.





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