NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Apr 23 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/1306Z from Region 2035 (S13W85). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (26 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at
23/0123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1727Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1605Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    40/30/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 136
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 156


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  007/008-008/008-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/05