NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Jul 11 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2234Z from Region 2106 (N16W75). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at
10/2304Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Jul).


III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    60/50/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 166
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 150/140/135
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 137


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  006/005-008/010-007/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/20