NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Jul 31 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/1114Z from Region 2130 (S07E42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug,
03 Aug).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
31/1006Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2044Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/2035Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).


III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 156
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 160/160/150
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 130


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  006/005-006/008-013/014


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/30/40