NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Sep 29 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/0554Z from Region 2177 (N11E31). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1647Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1496 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active
periods on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 175
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 185/185/175
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 136


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  007/010-007/008-007/010


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/35