NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Sep 19 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/1832Z from Region 2171 (S09E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 559 km/s at 19/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/0805Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 19/1530Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22
Sep).


III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 122
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 131


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  015/018-008/008-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    50/20/15