NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Nov 27 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
27/0047Z from Region 2222 (S20E59). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov,
30 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 27/1938Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/0716Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1828Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30
Nov).


III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 179
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 180/185/185
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 150


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10