NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Oct 31 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
31/0101Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Nov) and likely to
be low on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 531 km/s at
31/1928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1229Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1475 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,
02 Nov, 03 Nov).


III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 121
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 141


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  009/008-008/008-008/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35