NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Oct 23 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25
Oct, 26 Oct).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    45/45/45
Proton     35/40/45
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 227
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 138


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  012/015-009/010-007/010


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/25