NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Oct 01 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0306Z from Region 2172 (S09W69). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/0602Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2302Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1627 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    45/35/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 155
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20