NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Sep 01 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0744Z from Region 2149 (N09W77). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (02 Sep, 03
Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Sep).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
508 km/s at 01/0750Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0329Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).


III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    20/20/35
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 127
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 125/125/115
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 129


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  008/008-008/008-007/010


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20