NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Oct 21 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and
unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).


III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 199
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 135


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  013/015-014/015-013/015


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    40/40/40