NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Corona Mass Ejection

3-Day Report of Solar
and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2008 May 08 2203 UTC 


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2008

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (09 May).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 - 3
(10 - 11 May).

III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 066
Predicted   09 May-11 May  068/068/070
90 Day Mean        08 May 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01