NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Aug 01 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1448Z from Region 2130 (S07E27). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/2044Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1415Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1650Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 168
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/010-013/014-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/30