NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Flare 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2014 Nov 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/0641Z from Region 2216 (S13E68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
434 km/s at 20/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1535Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0923Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1734 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22
Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 168
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 170/175/175
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  012/012-009/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/40