Forecasts of Estimated Ap index are integer forecasts of the observed daily (24 hour) geomagnetic Ap index estimated by the USAF through 2011 and by NOAA from 2012 onward. Forecast lead times range from 1-day to 7-days. Verification results are provided on forecasts from July 1986 (the beginning of solar cycle 22) through December 2012. The USAF estimated Ap index is a real-time estimate of the official Göttingen Ap values using ground-based magnetometers at Meanook, Canada; Sitka, Alaska; Glenlea, Canada; Saint Johns, Canada; Ottawa, Canada; Newport, Washington; Fredericksburg, Virginia; Boulder, Colorado; and Fresno, California. A comparison of the USAF estimated Ap to the Göttingen Ap can be found in: Gehred, P.A., et al.: 1995, 'A Comparison of USAF Ap Indices to Göttingen Indices', NOAA Technical Memorandum, ERL SEL-88. The NOAA estimated Ap is a real-time estimated Ap currently using geomagnetic ground stations at Boulder, Colorado; Chambon la Foret, France; Fredericksburg, Virginia; Fresno, California; Hartland, UK; Newport, Washington; Sitka, Alaska; and Jeju, Korea.
Statistics Summary Tables
Estimated Ap Observed
Plot
Joint Distribution of Forecasts and Observations Plot
Conditional Quantile Plot
Forecast Mean Error, RMS Error, and Linear Association Plot
Forecast Skill vs Lead Time