# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Fredericksburg A Index Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Median (x): Median observation # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear association between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 7.83 7.53 7.19 6.78 6.38 6.43 6.35 Mean (x): 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 Median (f): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Std Dev (f): 5.95 5.30 4.10 3.59 3.33 3.48 3.60 Std Dev(x): 5.71 5.71 5.71 5.71 5.71 5.71 5.71 Std Dev (f-x): 5.41 5.51 5.37 5.16 5.34 5.50 5.58 ME: 1.77 1.46 1.12 0.72 0.32 0.36 0.29 MAE: 3.82 3.81 3.66 3.41 3.42 3.55 3.59 MSE: 32.33 32.45 29.96 27.08 28.53 30.33 31.10 RMSE: 5.69 5.70 5.47 5.20 5.34 5.51 5.58 Linear Assoc: 0.57 0.50 0.44 0.46 0.40 0.36 0.35 Skill: 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.17 0.12 0.07 0.05 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 10.53 10.16 9.09 8.22 7.80 7.62 7.49 Mean (x): 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.87 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 8.15 6.81 4.43 3.57 3.49 3.43 3.23 Std Dev (x): 8.08 8.08 8.08 8.08 8.08 8.08 8.08 Std Dev (f-x): 7.71 7.03 7.67 7.98 8.12 8.14 8.13 ME: 1.66 1.29 0.22 -0.65 -1.07 -1.25 -1.38 MAE: 5.02 4.91 5.00 5.05 5.15 5.20 5.15 MSE: 61.99 50.94 58.72 63.89 66.96 68.20 67.81 RMSE: 7.87 7.14 7.66 7.99 8.18 8.26 8.24 Linear Assoc: 0.55 0.57 0.36 0.25 0.20 0.19 0.19 Skill: 0.05 0.22 0.10 0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.04 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 10.83 10.57 10.02 8.98 8.53 8.40 8.21 Mean (x): 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.48 9.49 9.49 9.50 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 7.52 6.11 4.89 3.85 3.73 3.79 3.75 Std Dev (x): 11.48 11.48 11.48 11.48 11.48 11.48 11.48 Std Dev (f-x): 9.93 9.66 11.16 11.41 11.42 11.35 11.44 ME: 1.35 1.09 0.54 -0.50 -0.96 -1.09 -1.29 MAE: 5.24 5.16 5.37 5.25 5.23 5.24 5.33 MSE: 100.19 94.21 124.60 130.05 130.88 129.61 132.16 RMSE: 10.01 9.71 11.16 11.40 11.44 11.38 11.50 Linear Assoc: 0.52 0.54 0.28 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.18 Skill: 0.24 0.28 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records : 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 16.05 15.01 13.70 12.85 12.52 12.36 12.13 Mean (x): 14.67 14.67 14.67 14.67 14.67 14.67 14.67 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 Std Dev (f): 9.81 9.54 4.98 4.54 4.69 4.82 4.65 Std Dev (x): 14.80 14.80 14.80 14.80 14.80 14.80 14.80 Std Dev (f-x): 11.10 13.84 14.48 14.55 14.66 14.76 14.92 ME: 1.38 0.34 -0.97 -1.81 -2.14 -2.30 -2.53 MAE: 6.14 6.37 6.38 6.30 6.38 6.52 6.71 MSE: 124.81 191.24 210.18 214.45 219.14 222.70 228.43 RMSE: 11.17 13.82 14.49 14.64 14.80 14.92 15.11 Linear Assoc: 0.66 0.42 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.13 Skill: 0.42 0.12 0.03 0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.04 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 363 363 363 363 Mean (f): 11.33 10.83 9.83 8.74 8.29 8.15 7.99 Mean (x): 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.23 9.22 9.19 9.21 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Std Dev (f): 5.55 5.19 3.70 2.94 2.66 2.44 2.35 Std Dev (x): 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 Std Dev (f-x): 6.73 7.06 6.72 6.68 6.72 6.66 6.68 ME: 2.13 1.63 0.63 -0.49 -0.93 -1.04 -1.21 MAE: 5.10 5.24 4.96 4.58 4.49 4.36 4.34 MSE: 49.74 52.30 45.37 44.74 45.93 45.29 45.95 RMSE: 7.05 7.23 6.74 6.69 6.78 6.73 6.78 Linear Assoc: 0.38 0.29 0.22 0.17 0.12 0.12 0.11 Skill: -0.18 -0.24 -0.08 -0.06 -0.09 -0.08 -0.09 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 12.95 12.54 10.81 9.23 8.66 8.36 8.24 Mean (x): 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 11.72 8.68 5.27 3.11 2.67 2.57 2.49 Std Dev (x): 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 9.82 Std Dev (f-x): 11.22 9.81 9.73 10.03 9.84 9.83 9.76 ME: 3.60 3.19 1.45 -0.13 -0.70 -1.00 -1.12 MAE: 6.41 6.52 5.75 5.43 5.16 5.11 5.14 MSE: 138.36 106.09 96.47 100.40 96.98 97.31 96.15 RMSE: 11.76 10.30 9.82 10.02 9.85 9.86 9.81 Linear Assoc: 0.47 0.44 0.29 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.16 Skill: -0.44 -0.10 0.00 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 359 359 359 359 Mean (f): 13.49 13.23 11.89 10.15 9.40 9.09 8.89 Mean (x): 11.01 11.01 11.01 11.08 11.05 11.02 11.01 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Std Dev (f): 9.38 9.24 6.73 4.36 3.58 3.19 3.03 Std Dev (x): 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 Std Dev (f-x): 10.99 12.69 11.62 10.96 11.12 10.94 10.88 ME: 2.48 2.22 0.88 -0.93 -1.65 -1.93 -2.12 MAE: 6.84 7.19 6.71 6.37 6.09 5.99 5.91 MSE: 126.49 165.60 135.52 120.58 126.14 123.14 122.54 RMSE: 11.25 12.87 11.64 10.98 11.23 11.10 11.07 Linear Assoc: 0.42 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.14 Skill: -0.09 -0.42 -0.16 -0.02 -0.06 -0.04 -0.04 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 184 183 182 181 Mean (f): 11.12 10.53 9.93 9.15 8.90 8.42 8.20 Mean (x): 9.29 9.29 9.29 10.36 10.31 10.07 10.49 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 Std Dev (f): 5.12 4.58 4.18 4.86 4.69 4.47 4.23 Std Dev (x): 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 Std Dev (f-x): 6.73 7.35 7.09 8.02 7.76 7.38 7.34 ME: 1.82 1.24 0.63 -1.21 -1.40 -1.65 -2.29 MAE: 5.23 5.35 5.13 5.78 5.57 5.20 5.46 MSE: 48.42 55.36 50.58 65.46 61.80 56.91 58.74 RMSE: 6.96 7.44 7.11 8.09 7.86 7.54 7.66 Linear Assoc: 0.41 0.23 0.26 0.22 0.28 0.32 0.31 Skill: -0.02 -0.16 -0.06 -0.16 -0.07 -0.03 -0.07 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 265 265 266 266 Mean (f): 10.47 10.02 9.25 8.29 7.49 7.34 7.18 Mean (x): 8.84 8.84 8.84 9.06 9.17 9.16 9.14 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 7.71 6.56 4.92 3.51 2.85 3.01 2.93 Std Dev (x): 9.66 9.66 9.66 9.66 9.66 9.66 9.66 Std Dev (f-x): 8.26 8.24 8.94 9.42 9.65 9.62 9.50 ME: 1.63 1.18 0.41 -0.77 -1.67 -1.83 -1.96 MAE: 5.24 5.49 5.42 5.13 5.03 5.04 5.03 MSE: 70.63 69.10 79.87 88.99 95.63 95.52 93.71 RMSE: 8.40 8.31 8.94 9.43 9.78 9.77 9.68 Linear Assoc: 0.52 0.48 0.29 0.24 0.16 0.17 0.21 Skill: 0.13 0.15 0.01 0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 345 344 343 342 Mean (f): 9.09 9.12 8.92 8.43 7.80 7.57 7.53 Mean (x): 8.66 8.66 8.66 8.69 8.72 8.71 8.65 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 5.57 5.39 5.16 4.06 3.28 3.08 2.97 Std Dev (x): 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 Std Dev (f-x): 6.58 6.94 7.02 6.59 6.37 6.46 6.56 ME: 0.42 0.46 0.26 -0.26 -0.92 -1.14 -1.12 MAE: 4.53 4.91 5.02 4.81 4.69 4.72 4.76 MSE: 43.36 48.26 49.24 43.40 41.33 42.90 44.21 RMSE: 6.59 6.95 7.02 6.59 6.43 6.55 6.65 Linear Assoc: 0.36 0.27 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.07 Skill: -0.20 -0.33 -0.36 -0.20 -0.14 -0.16 -0.20 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 341 341 341 341 Mean (f): 8.71 8.59 8.42 8.32 8.32 8.35 8.24 Mean (x): 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.58 9.63 9.65 9.67 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Std Dev (f): 4.23 4.11 4.01 3.79 3.83 3.73 3.58 Std Dev (x): 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 Std Dev (f-x): 5.55 5.80 5.43 5.39 5.54 5.54 5.61 ME: -0.71 -0.83 -1.01 -1.26 -1.31 -1.31 -1.44 MAE: 4.01 4.17 4.02 4.04 4.20 4.20 4.22 MSE: 31.26 34.24 30.36 30.56 32.32 32.28 33.41 RMSE: 5.59 5.85 5.51 5.53 5.69 5.68 5.78 Linear Assoc: 0.41 0.35 0.43 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.37 Skill: 0.05 -0.04 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.01 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 10.94 11.27 11.49 11.28 10.96 10.60 10.45 Mean (x): 10.96 10.96 10.96 10.96 10.96 10.96 10.96 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Std Dev (f): 6.18 6.35 6.34 5.89 5.82 5.47 5.10 Std Dev (x): 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 Std Dev (f-x): 7.40 7.96 7.90 7.50 7.30 7.33 7.58 ME: -0.03 0.31 0.52 0.31 -0.01 -0.37 -0.52 MAE: 5.27 5.77 5.75 5.60 5.40 5.53 5.76 MSE: 54.56 63.24 62.44 56.14 53.16 53.78 57.58 RMSE: 7.39 7.95 7.90 7.49 7.29 7.33 7.59 Linear Assoc: 0.46 0.38 0.39 0.43 0.46 0.44 0.37 Skill: 0.11 -0.04 -0.02 0.08 0.13 0.12 0.06 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 14.49 14.35 13.79 13.09 12.63 12.43 12.26 Mean (x): 14.85 14.85 14.85 14.85 14.85 14.85 14.85 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 Std Dev (f): 7.98 7.43 6.90 6.72 6.68 6.68 6.70 Std Dev (x): 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 Std Dev (f-x): 9.78 8.87 9.30 9.48 9.35 9.40 9.72 ME: -0.36 -0.50 -1.06 -1.76 -2.22 -2.42 -2.60 MAE: 6.73 6.31 6.53 6.49 6.44 6.67 6.84 MSE: 95.60 78.74 87.40 92.78 92.04 94.06 100.87 RMSE: 9.78 8.87 9.35 9.63 9.59 9.70 10.04 Linear Assoc: 0.47 0.56 0.50 0.47 0.49 0.48 0.44 Skill: 0.14 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.09 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 13.20 13.34 13.02 12.67 12.33 12.08 11.66 Mean (x): 12.71 12.71 12.71 12.71 12.71 12.71 12.71 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Std Dev (f): 6.69 6.75 6.39 7.22 7.56 7.32 6.58 Std Dev (x): 9.43 9.43 9.43 9.43 9.43 9.43 9.43 Std Dev (f-x): 8.88 9.16 9.27 10.07 10.38 10.42 10.51 ME: 0.48 0.63 0.31 -0.04 -0.38 -0.63 -1.05 MAE: 6.15 6.42 6.50 6.75 6.96 6.91 6.79 MSE: 78.79 84.09 85.80 101.04 107.56 108.58 111.31 RMSE: 8.88 9.17 9.26 10.05 10.37 10.42 10.55 Linear Assoc: 0.44 0.40 0.36 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.18 Skill: 0.11 0.05 0.03 -0.14 -0.21 -0.23 -0.26 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 13.47 12.87 12.06 11.23 10.74 10.47 10.36 Mean (x): 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 7.85 6.69 4.93 4.13 3.80 3.61 3.27 Std Dev (x): 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86 10.86 Std Dev (f-x): 10.58 11.20 10.91 11.49 11.46 11.44 11.39 ME: -0.03 -0.63 -1.44 -2.27 -2.76 -3.03 -3.15 MAE: 6.77 7.27 7.01 7.15 7.25 7.25 7.29 MSE: 111.67 125.44 120.78 136.84 138.57 139.71 139.15 RMSE: 10.57 11.20 10.99 11.70 11.77 11.82 11.80 Linear Assoc: 0.40 0.26 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.01 Skill: 0.05 -0.07 -0.03 -0.16 -0.18 -0.19 -0.18 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 16.74 15.60 13.53 12.27 11.90 11.72 11.66 Mean (x): 17.76 17.76 17.76 17.76 17.76 17.76 17.76 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 Std Dev (f): 11.45 10.07 6.34 5.02 4.75 4.80 4.84 Std Dev (x): 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 Std Dev (f-x): 13.95 16.20 16.30 16.53 16.60 16.48 16.21 ME: -1.03 -2.16 -4.23 -5.49 -5.87 -6.04 -6.11 MAE: 8.61 9.66 9.64 9.84 10.01 10.04 9.87 MSE: 195.02 266.25 282.94 302.63 309.19 307.16 299.33 RMSE: 13.97 16.32 16.82 17.40 17.58 17.53 17.30 Linear Assoc: 0.56 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.16 0.18 0.24 Skill: 0.30 0.04 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 13.41 12.84 12.40 11.49 10.72 10.50 10.47 Mean (x): 13.08 13.08 13.08 13.08 13.08 13.08 13.08 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Std Dev (f): 6.78 5.51 5.01 4.46 3.97 3.77 3.84 Std Dev (x): 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 Std Dev (f-x): 10.16 10.67 11.00 10.99 10.78 10.93 11.06 ME: 0.33 -0.25 -0.69 -1.59 -2.36 -2.59 -2.61 MAE: 6.66 7.10 7.08 6.99 6.86 6.99 7.03 MSE: 102.95 113.67 121.16 123.06 121.38 125.84 128.71 RMSE: 10.15 10.66 11.01 11.09 11.02 11.22 11.35 Linear Assoc: 0.42 0.29 0.21 0.18 0.21 0.16 0.13 Skill: 0.13 0.04 -0.02 -0.04 -0.03 -0.06 -0.09 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1989 Start: 1/1/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 15.90 15.57 13.57 11.89 11.20 10.92 10.64 Mean (x): 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53 Median (f): 13.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 9.89 9.17 6.60 4.99 4.31 4.14 3.99 Std Dev (x): 17.52 17.52 17.52 17.52 17.52 17.52 17.52 Std Dev (f-x): 16.94 17.42 17.81 17.85 17.63 17.57 17.86 ME: 0.38 0.04 -1.96 -3.64 -4.33 -4.61 -4.89 MAE: 8.73 9.03 9.21 8.90 8.67 8.65 8.70 MSE: 286.38 302.47 320.15 330.84 328.70 329.11 342.01 RMSE: 16.92 17.39 17.89 18.19 18.13 18.14 18.49 Linear Assoc: 0.34 0.27 0.14 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.03 Skill: 0.06 0.01 -0.05 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.12 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 13.24 12.83 11.88 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 11.02 11.02 11.02 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 10.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 6.31 6.03 5.64 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 8.76 8.76 8.76 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 9.67 10.16 10.27 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 2.22 1.81 0.86 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 7.09 7.31 7.11 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 98.09 106.17 105.96 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 9.90 10.30 10.29 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.21 0.09 0.03 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -0.28 -0.39 -0.39 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 11.25 11.08 10.66 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 10.16 10.16 10.16 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 8.00 8.00 8.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 5.29 5.17 5.06 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 6.95 6.95 6.95 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 7.43 7.96 7.90 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 1.10 0.92 0.50 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 5.56 5.90 5.80 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 56.21 64.08 62.54 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 7.50 8.01 7.91 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.29 0.16 0.16 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -0.17 -0.33 -0.30 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Fredericksburg A Index (integer) Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 184 184 184 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 11.14 10.66 10.57 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 10.44 10.44 10.44 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 5.08 4.95 5.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 7.53 7.53 7.53 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 7.35 8.06 8.10 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.70 0.22 0.13 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 5.34 5.81 5.92 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 54.16 64.64 65.28 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 7.36 8.04 8.08 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.37 0.22 0.21 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.04 -0.15 -0.16 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999