# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Estimated Ap Index Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Median (x): Median observation # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear association between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2012 Start: 1/1/12 End: 12/31/12 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean(f): 9.85 9.22 8.00 6.99 6.53 6.33 6.06 Mean(x): 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Std Dev (f): 9.25 6.69 4.03 2.98 2.74 2.54 2.42 Std Dev (x): 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 Std Dev (f-x): 9.62 8.14 7.38 7.84 8.07 8.01 8.01 ME: 1.17 0.54 -0.68 -1.70 -2.16 -2.35 -2.62 MAE: 4.92 4.78 4.26 4.32 4.53 4.40 4.43 MSE: 93.70 66.37 54.78 64.10 69.56 69.45 70.80 RMSE: 9.68 8.15 7.40 8.01 8.34 8.33 8.41 Linear Assoc: 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.15 0.16 0.15 Skill: -0.46 -0.04 0.15 0.00 -0.09 -0.08 -0.11 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2011 Start: 1/1/11 End: 12/31/11 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 8.39 8.10 7.52 6.92 6.46 6.25 6.04 Mean (x): 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 Median (f): 7.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Std Dev (f): 5.26 4.55 3.74 3.21 2.73 2.49 2.56 Std Dev (x): 7.61 7.61 7.61 7.61 7.61 7.61 7.61 Std Dev (f-x): 6.30 6.67 7.35 7.52 7.57 7.51 7.59 ME: 0.80 0.50 -0.08 -0.68 -1.13 -1.35 -1.55 MAE: 4.16 4.34 4.44 4.32 4.32 4.28 4.27 MSE: 40.24 44.62 53.92 56.87 58.35 58.12 59.85 RMSE: 6.34 6.68 7.34 7.54 7.64 7.62 7.74 Linear Assoc: 0.57 0.49 0.31 0.24 0.19 0.20 0.17 Skill: 0.30 0.23 0.07 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2010 Start: 1/1/10 End: 12/31/10 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 7.64 7.69 7.36 7.12 6.49 6.10 5.91 Mean (x): 6.11 6.11 6.11 6.11 6.11 6.11 6.11 Median (f): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Std Dev (f): 4.39 4.27 3.63 4.19 2.73 2.35 2.10 Std Dev (x): 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Std Dev (f-x): 5.47 5.95 6.08 6.47 5.89 5.78 5.75 ME: 1.53 1.58 1.25 1.01 0.38 -0.01 -0.20 MAE: 3.75 4.01 3.98 3.83 3.52 3.35 3.28 MSE: 32.15 37.80 38.42 42.81 34.76 33.32 33.00 RMSE: 5.67 6.15 6.20 6.54 5.90 5.77 5.74 Linear Assoc: 0.48 0.37 0.28 0.23 0.27 0.29 0.29 Skill: 0.11 -0.05 -0.07 -0.19 0.03 0.07 0.08 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2009 Start: 1/1/09 End: 12/31/09 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 5.96 5.91 5.88 5.78 5.66 5.53 5.51 Mean (x): 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 Median (f): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Std Dev (f): 1.99 1.99 2.05 1.94 1.86 1.71 1.68 Std Dev (x): 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 Std Dev (f-x): 3.17 3.20 3.19 3.18 3.23 3.15 3.15 ME: 1.80 1.75 1.72 1.62 1.50 1.37 1.35 MAE: 2.80 2.79 2.77 2.74 2.67 2.57 2.56 MSE: 13.26 13.27 13.07 12.72 12.64 11.76 11.70 RMSE: 3.64 3.64 3.62 3.57 3.56 3.43 3.42 Linear Assoc: 0.29 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.23 0.25 0.24 Skill: -0.38 -0.39 -0.36 -0.33 -0.32 -0.23 -0.22 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2008 Start: 1/1/08 End: 12/31/08 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 7.93 7.76 7.69 7.55 7.41 7.42 7.36 Mean (x): 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 Median (f): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Std Dev (f): 4.37 4.18 4.19 4.12 3.99 3.97 3.99 Std Dev (x): 5.67 5.67 5.67 5.67 5.67 5.67 5.67 Std Dev (f-x): 4.66 4.79 4.92 4.93 4.90 4.83 4.71 ME: 1.15 0.98 0.91 0.77 0.63 0.64 0.58 MAE: 3.30 3.37 3.40 3.39 3.34 3.35 3.25 MSE: 22.99 23.86 24.97 24.86 24.30 23.63 22.46 RMSE: 4.79 4.89 5.00 4.99 4.93 4.86 4.74 Linear Assoc: 0.60 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.55 0.57 Skill: 0.28 0.26 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.30 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2007 Start: 1/1/07 End: 12/31/07 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 364 364 364 364 Mean (f): 8.91 8.78 8.73 8.41 8.31 8.27 8.21 Mean (x): 7.51 7.51 7.51 7.53 7.52 7.52 7.53 Median (f): 7.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Std Dev (f): 5.09 5.07 5.24 4.81 4.78 4.74 4.83 Std Dev (x): 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 6.42 Std Dev (f-x): 4.91 5.18 5.47 5.38 5.47 5.66 5.76 ME: 1.40 1.27 1.22 0.89 0.79 0.75 0.68 MAE: 3.71 3.75 3.84 3.78 3.90 3.99 4.01 MSE: 25.95 28.39 31.30 29.59 30.45 32.52 33.49 RMSE: 5.09 5.33 5.59 5.44 5.52 5.70 5.79 Linear Assoc: 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.52 0.51 Skill: 0.37 0.31 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.21 0.19 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 364 364 364 364 Mean (f): 10.38 9.97 9.39 8.84 8.22 8.12 7.98 Mean (x): 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 8.68 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 Median (x): 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Std Dev (f): 9.41 8.31 5.81 5.04 4.49 4.61 4.56 Std Dev (x): 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 Std Dev (f-x): 8.75 8.44 9.03 8.98 9.13 9.21 9.34 ME: 1.69 1.29 0.71 0.16 -0.47 -0.56 -0.70 MAE: 5.21 5.25 5.01 4.78 4.80 4.87 4.95 MSE: 79.18 72.70 81.79 80.36 83.30 84.81 87.43 RMSE: 8.90 8.53 9.04 8.96 9.13 9.21 9.35 Linear Assoc: 0.57 0.56 0.39 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.28 Skill: 0.12 0.20 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.03 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 364 364 364 364 Mean (f): 14.68 13.68 12.18 11.03 10.38 9.97 9.82 Mean (x): 13.72 13.72 13.72 13.75 13.75 13.73 13.72 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Std Dev (f): 11.22 9.36 5.87 5.10 4.98 4.75 4.46 Std Dev (x): 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 Std Dev (f-x): 11.70 11.96 13.97 14.48 14.50 14.46 14.50 ME: 0.96 -0.03 -1.53 -2.71 -3.36 -3.76 -3.89 MAE: 7.32 7.48 7.93 8.18 8.15 8.11 8.04 MSE: 137.55 142.56 196.93 216.31 221.07 222.64 224.71 RMSE: 11.73 11.94 14.03 14.71 14.87 14.92 14.99 Linear Assoc: 0.61 0.57 0.29 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.15 Skill: 0.34 0.32 0.06 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 14.33 13.66 12.99 11.80 11.16 11.01 10.84 Mean (x): 13.53 13.53 13.53 13.51 13.52 13.52 13.53 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Std Dev (f): 10.62 7.14 6.24 5.11 4.91 4.82 4.47 Std Dev (x): 18.62 18.62 18.62 18.62 18.62 18.62 18.62 Std Dev (f-x): 17.32 16.78 17.63 18.18 18.19 18.18 18.17 ME: 0.80 0.13 -0.54 -1.71 -2.36 -2.51 -2.69 MAE: 7.18 6.98 6.97 6.70 6.77 6.81 6.89 MSE: 299.84 280.93 310.41 332.67 335.55 336.01 336.44 RMSE: 17.32 16.76 17.62 18.24 18.32 18.33 18.34 Linear Assoc: 0.40 0.44 0.32 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 Skill: 0.13 0.19 0.10 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 20.13 19.01 17.43 16.38 15.80 15.81 15.55 Mean (x): 20.99 20.99 20.99 20.99 20.99 20.99 20.99 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Median (x): 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 Std Dev (f): 12.74 12.14 7.05 6.19 6.32 6.49 6.46 Std Dev (x): 17.63 17.63 17.63 17.63 17.63 17.63 17.63 Std Dev (f-x): 14.13 16.60 17.48 17.44 17.52 17.49 17.63 ME: -0.85 -1.98 -3.56 -4.61 -5.18 -5.17 -5.43 MAE: 8.17 8.85 9.21 8.94 8.96 8.95 9.34 MSE: 199.99 278.94 317.50 324.81 333.24 331.87 339.79 RMSE: 14.14 16.70 17.81 18.02 18.25 18.21 18.43 Linear Assoc: 0.60 0.42 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.18 Skill: 0.35 0.10 -0.02 -0.04 -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 364 364 364 364 Mean (f): 13.16 12.56 11.61 10.32 9.59 9.22 8.98 Mean (x): 13.57 13.57 13.57 13.59 13.57 13.54 13.57 Median (f): 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 6.60 6.48 4.81 4.11 3.50 2.63 2.29 Std Dev (x): 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 Std Dev (f-x): 9.35 9.65 9.43 9.65 9.56 9.42 9.49 ME: -0.41 -1.00 -1.96 -3.26 -3.98 -4.32 -4.60 MAE: 5.83 5.98 6.01 6.05 6.03 5.93 6.03 MSE: 87.36 93.87 92.60 103.56 106.93 107.08 110.96 RMSE: 9.35 9.69 9.62 10.18 10.34 10.35 10.53 Linear Assoc: 0.38 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.16 Skill: 0.05 -0.03 -0.01 -0.13 -0.17 -0.17 -0.21 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 14.00 13.92 12.41 10.56 9.49 9.10 8.92 Mean (x): 12.54 12.54 12.54 12.54 12.54 12.54 12.54 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Std Dev (f): 10.97 10.29 6.25 4.08 3.12 2.75 2.63 Std Dev (x): 13.91 13.91 13.91 13.91 13.91 13.91 13.91 Std Dev (f-x): 13.32 13.42 13.62 14.32 14.27 14.07 13.94 ME: 1.46 1.38 -0.13 -1.99 -3.06 -3.45 -3.62 MAE: 7.33 7.58 7.12 6.96 6.66 6.46 6.51 MSE: 178.96 181.41 185.07 208.33 212.49 209.40 206.87 RMSE: 13.38 13.47 13.60 14.43 14.58 14.47 14.38 Linear Assoc: 0.45 0.42 0.27 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.08 Skill: 0.07 0.06 0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 360 360 360 360 Mean (f): 15.85 15.41 13.71 11.71 10.79 10.25 10.08 Mean (x): 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.56 14.38 14.48 14.48 Median (f): 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 11.57 11.15 8.26 4.60 3.66 2.92 2.62 Std Dev (x): 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 14.42 Std Dev (f-x): 14.40 16.41 15.19 14.35 14.22 14.33 14.39 ME: 1.36 0.92 -0.78 -2.85 -3.59 -4.23 -4.40 MAE: 8.30 8.99 8.31 7.83 7.51 7.66 7.68 MSE: 208.76 269.28 230.82 213.50 214.59 222.59 225.82 RMSE: 14.45 16.41 15.19 14.61 14.65 14.92 15.03 Linear Assoc: 0.40 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.10 Skill: -0.02 -0.32 -0.13 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.09 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 196 195 194 193 Mean (f): 12.75 12.24 11.63 11.38 10.62 10.15 9.74 Mean (x): 12.01 12.01 12.01 13.13 13.28 13.05 13.34 Median (f): 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 Median (x): 9.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Std Dev (f): 6.07 5.42 5.19 5.51 4.88 4.43 3.89 Std Dev (x): 10.11 10.11 10.11 10.11 10.11 10.11 10.11 Std Dev (f-x): 8.79 9.46 9.18 9.81 9.98 9.72 9.62 ME: 0.74 0.23 -0.38 -1.75 -2.66 -2.90 -3.60 MAE: 6.10 6.33 6.06 6.29 6.39 6.31 6.47 MSE: 77.52 89.20 84.16 98.73 106.13 102.34 105.07 RMSE: 8.80 9.45 9.17 9.94 10.30 10.12 10.25 Linear Assoc: 0.40 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.31 Skill: 0.09 -0.05 0.01 0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 266 266 267 267 Mean (f): 12.25 11.69 10.88 9.31 8.56 8.26 8.26 Mean (x): 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.10 12.17 12.06 11.75 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 Std Dev (f): 7.81 6.91 5.34 3.98 3.63 3.34 3.50 Std Dev (x): 12.37 12.37 12.37 12.37 12.37 12.37 12.37 Std Dev (f-x): 10.95 11.34 12.70 13.13 12.99 13.27 12.12 ME: 0.22 -0.34 -1.15 -2.79 -3.61 -3.80 -3.49 MAE: 6.15 6.45 6.63 6.37 6.12 6.17 5.99 MSE: 119.63 128.44 162.06 179.49 181.14 189.96 158.65 RMSE: 10.94 11.33 12.73 13.40 13.46 13.78 12.60 Linear Assoc: 0.59 0.55 0.35 0.31 0.36 0.25 0.21 Skill: 0.34 0.30 0.11 0.06 0.05 -0.01 -0.04 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 343 342 341 340 Mean (f): 9.87 9.79 9.45 8.83 8.06 7.90 7.61 Mean (x): 8.36 8.36 8.36 8.41 8.42 8.44 8.39 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Std Dev (f): 5.93 5.92 5.84 4.48 3.45 3.40 3.26 Std Dev (x): 7.48 7.48 7.48 7.48 7.48 7.48 7.48 Std Dev (f-x): 7.58 8.02 7.89 7.78 7.59 7.64 7.57 ME: 1.52 1.43 1.09 0.42 -0.36 -0.54 -0.78 MAE: 5.02 5.41 5.24 5.11 4.97 5.06 4.82 MSE: 59.57 66.23 63.24 60.49 57.61 58.49 57.74 RMSE: 7.72 8.14 7.95 7.78 7.59 7.65 7.60 Linear Assoc: 0.37 0.29 0.31 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.19 Skill: -0.09 -0.21 -0.16 -0.10 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 357 356 355 354 Mean (f): 8.93 8.87 8.82 8.54 8.35 8.31 8.01 Mean (x): 8.74 8.74 8.74 8.80 8.83 8.86 8.86 Median (f): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Median (x): 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Std Dev (f): 4.79 4.78 4.58 4.25 4.01 3.95 3.74 Std Dev (x): 6.34 6.34 6.34 6.34 6.34 6.34 6.34 Std Dev (f-x): 6.04 6.64 6.55 6.55 6.32 6.47 6.47 ME: 0.19 0.13 0.08 -0.26 -0.48 -0.55 -0.86 MAE: 4.09 4.46 4.47 4.49 4.39 4.47 4.35 MSE: 36.35 43.93 42.74 42.86 40.01 42.01 42.45 RMSE: 6.03 6.63 6.54 6.55 6.33 6.48 6.52 Linear Assoc: 0.43 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.32 0.28 0.26 Skill: 0.08 -0.11 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.05 -0.06 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 13.17 13.07 13.04 12.55 12.20 11.86 11.75 Mean (x): 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 Median (f): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Std Dev (f): 7.11 7.04 6.85 6.16 5.94 5.81 5.82 Std Dev (x): 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 9.36 Std Dev (f-x): 8.81 9.51 9.24 8.90 8.80 9.02 9.07 ME: 1.59 1.49 1.46 0.96 0.61 0.27 0.16 MAE: 6.29 6.77 6.57 6.47 6.28 6.36 6.29 MSE: 79.87 92.42 87.19 79.92 77.52 81.15 82.13 RMSE: 8.94 9.61 9.34 8.94 8.80 9.01 9.06 Linear Assoc: 0.46 0.35 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.37 0.36 Skill: 0.09 -0.06 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.06 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 17.30 17.19 16.65 15.80 15.07 14.92 14.83 Mean (x): 16.11 16.11 16.11 16.11 16.11 16.11 16.11 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 9.52 9.08 8.62 8.18 7.97 8.10 8.41 Std Dev (x): 13.85 13.85 13.85 13.85 13.85 13.85 13.85 Std Dev (f-x): 10.76 11.76 11.56 12.46 12.41 12.69 12.98 ME: 1.19 1.07 0.54 -0.32 -1.04 -1.19 -1.29 MAE: 6.91 7.53 7.74 7.67 7.57 7.78 8.03 MSE: 116.89 139.15 133.58 154.84 154.62 162.05 169.63 RMSE: 10.81 11.80 11.56 12.44 12.43 12.73 13.02 Linear Assoc: 0.63 0.54 0.56 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.40 Skill: 0.39 0.27 0.30 0.19 0.19 0.15 0.11 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 15.76 15.62 15.17 14.47 13.90 13.73 13.33 Mean (x): 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Std Dev (f): 7.61 7.89 7.62 7.19 7.33 7.51 5.89 Std Dev (x): 12.26 12.26 12.26 12.26 12.26 12.26 12.26 Std Dev (f-x): 11.43 11.90 12.09 12.26 12.57 12.27 12.01 ME: 2.10 1.95 1.50 0.81 0.23 0.07 -0.34 MAE: 7.72 7.80 7.79 7.70 7.74 7.50 7.31 MSE: 134.72 145.12 147.96 150.45 157.52 150.15 143.94 RMSE: 11.61 12.05 12.16 12.27 12.55 12.25 12.00 Linear Assoc: 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.31 0.28 Skill: 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.04 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 16.68 16.23 15.04 13.65 13.01 12.62 12.46 Mean (x): 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Median (x): 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 Std Dev (f): 10.83 9.48 7.31 5.36 4.88 4.71 4.33 Std Dev (x): 13.55 13.55 13.55 13.55 13.55 13.55 13.55 Std Dev (f-x): 14.54 14.72 14.11 14.19 13.99 13.93 14.01 ME: 1.89 1.45 0.25 -1.14 -1.78 -2.17 -2.32 MAE: 8.42 8.80 8.38 8.11 7.96 7.91 7.91 MSE: 214.35 218.28 198.63 202.17 198.33 198.22 201.07 RMSE: 14.64 14.77 14.09 14.22 14.08 14.08 14.18 Linear Assoc: 0.31 0.22 0.19 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.05 Skill: -0.17 -0.19 -0.08 -0.10 -0.08 -0.08 -0.10 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 21.34 20.31 18.06 16.49 15.53 15.52 15.37 Mean (x): 20.84 20.84 20.84 20.84 20.84 20.84 20.84 Median (f): 16.00 16.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Median (x): 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 Std Dev (f): 14.00 12.71 8.81 7.24 6.42 6.62 6.25 Std Dev (x): 18.69 18.69 18.69 18.69 18.69 18.69 18.69 Std Dev (f-x): 16.74 18.43 18.55 18.72 18.82 18.89 18.71 ME: 0.50 -0.53 -2.78 -4.35 -5.30 -5.32 -5.46 MAE: 10.32 11.27 11.16 10.94 10.99 10.98 10.92 MSE: 279.83 338.90 350.78 368.50 381.17 384.22 378.99 RMSE: 16.73 18.41 18.73 19.20 19.52 19.60 19.47 Linear Assoc: 0.51 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.15 0.15 0.16 Skill: 0.20 0.03 -0.01 -0.06 -0.09 -0.10 -0.09 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 17.09 16.84 16.32 15.45 14.86 14.36 14.26 Mean (x): 15.86 15.86 15.86 15.86 15.86 15.86 15.86 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Median (x): 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 Std Dev (f): 6.80 5.98 5.16 4.55 4.49 4.11 4.05 Std Dev (x): 11.85 11.85 11.85 11.85 11.85 11.85 11.85 Std Dev (f-x): 10.49 11.93 12.07 11.83 11.84 11.91 11.98 ME: 1.23 0.98 0.46 -0.41 -1.00 -1.50 -1.60 MAE: 7.41 8.31 8.31 7.91 7.91 7.89 7.96 MSE: 111.23 142.83 145.52 139.63 140.71 143.65 145.64 RMSE: 10.55 11.95 12.06 11.82 11.86 11.99 12.07 Linear Assoc: 0.48 0.24 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.16 0.14 Skill: 0.21 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1989 Start: 3/5/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 302 302 302 302 302 302 302 Mean (f): 22.38 21.92 19.66 17.54 16.51 16.06 15.64 Mean (x): 19.20 19.20 19.20 19.20 19.20 19.20 19.20 Median (f): 18.00 18.00 18.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Median (x): 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 Std Dev (f): 14.19 11.30 8.17 5.84 4.82 4.86 4.50 Std Dev (x): 16.96 16.96 16.96 16.96 16.96 16.96 16.96 Std Dev (f-x): 16.47 17.20 17.33 17.08 16.90 17.18 17.08 ME: 3.18 2.72 0.46 -1.66 -2.69 -3.14 -3.56 MAE: 10.64 10.81 10.48 9.81 9.80 10.11 10.08 MSE: 280.35 302.23 299.50 293.40 291.86 304.17 303.47 RMSE: 16.74 17.39 17.31 17.13 17.08 17.44 17.42 Linear Assoc: 0.45 0.31 0.20 0.15 0.16 0.10 0.11 Skill: 0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.06 -0.06 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 22.74 21.99 20.22 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 20.30 20.30 20.30 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 20.00 20.00 20.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 16.00 16.00 16.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 10.03 10.84 8.27 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 15.59 15.59 15.59 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 16.02 17.79 17.06 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 2.44 1.69 -0.08 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 10.38 11.03 10.58 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 261.78 318.39 290.11 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 16.18 17.84 17.03 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.28 0.13 0.08 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -0.08 -0.31 -0.20 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: USAF Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 17.39 16.79 16.15 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 16.58 16.58 16.58 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 13.00 13.00 13.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 7.24 7.05 6.86 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 13.26 13.26 13.26 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 12.57 13.52 13.64 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.81 0.21 -0.43 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 8.19 8.56 8.55 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 158.20 182.42 185.63 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 12.58 13.51 13.63 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.37 0.23 0.20 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.10 -0.04 -0.06 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Estimated Ap Index (integer) Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 184 184 184 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 16.91 16.45 16.29 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 17.94 17.94 17.94 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 15.00 15.00 15.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 13.00 13.00 13.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 6.72 6.12 6.56 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 15.53 15.53 15.53 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 14.61 16.00 15.94 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: -1.02 -1.49 -1.65 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 8.40 9.12 9.31 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 213.33 256.65 255.31 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 14.61 16.02 15.98 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.35 0.12 0.15 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.11 -0.07 -0.06 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999