NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

USAF Estimated Ap Stack Plot

 

These plots show the annual trend, from 1986 to 2013, of various verification metrics for forecasts of estimated Ap index with lead times of one to three days. The top panel plots the mean of the observed value during the year, the second panel plots the mean error (or bias) of the forecasts, the third panel shows the root mean square error of the forecasts, and the bottom panel displays the linear association (correlation) between the forecasts and observations.

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