# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for F10 Solar Flux Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Median (x): Median observation # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear association between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 80.16 80.43 80.55 80.44 80.23 80.04 79.96 Mean (x): 79.97 79.97 79.97 79.97 79.97 79.97 79.97 Median (f): 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 Median (x): 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.00 78.00 Std Dev (f): 7.63 7.71 7.61 7.48 7.27 6.94 6.72 Std Dev (x): 7.51 7.51 7.51 7.51 7.51 7.51 7.51 Std Dev (f-x): 3.09 4.33 5.15 5.89 6.54 7.05 7.49 ME: 0.19 0.46 0.58 0.47 0.25 0.07 -0.01 MAE: 2.22 3.10 3.75 4.39 5.01 5.56 6.03 MSE: 9.58 18.87 26.76 34.76 42.70 49.59 55.87 RMSE: 3.10 4.34 5.17 5.90 6.54 7.04 7.47 Linear Assoc: 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.69 0.61 0.53 0.45 Skill: 0.83 0.67 0.53 0.38 0.24 0.12 0.01 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 92.04 92.32 92.23 91.71 91.64 91.23 90.90 Mean (x): 91.70 91.70 91.70 91.70 91.70 91.70 91.70 Median (f): 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 85.00 85.00 Median (x): 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 Std Dev (f): 14.04 13.83 13.74 14.18 13.43 13.00 12.43 Std Dev (x): 14.27 14.27 14.27 14.27 14.27 14.27 14.27 Std Dev (f-x): 4.46 6.51 8.36 10.95 11.10 12.09 12.90 ME: 0.34 0.62 0.53 0.01 -0.06 -0.47 -0.80 MAE: 3.31 4.70 5.88 7.18 7.76 8.74 9.52 MSE: 19.98 42.60 69.92 119.49 122.82 145.99 166.62 RMSE: 4.47 6.53 8.36 10.93 11.08 12.08 12.91 Linear Assoc: 0.95 0.89 0.82 0.70 0.68 0.61 0.54 Skill: 0.90 0.79 0.66 0.41 0.40 0.28 0.18 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 107.17 107.60 107.68 107.72 107.49 107.31 106.98 Mean( x): 106.46 106.46 106.46 106.46 106.42 106.46 106.46 Median (f): 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 Median (x): 104.00 104.00 104.00 104.00 104.00 104.00 104.00 Std Dev (f): 17.54 17.25 16.83 16.39 15.71 14.83 14.50 Std Dev (x): 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51 Std Dev (f-x): 5.21 7.96 10.46 12.35 14.15 15.46 16.82 ME: 0.70 1.14 1.22 1.26 1.02 0.85 0.52 MAE: 4.04 6.27 8.17 9.56 10.93 11.98 12.75 MSE: 27.57 64.56 110.66 153.79 200.80 238.96 282.40 RMSE: 5.25 8.04 10.52 12.41 14.17 15.46 16.80 Linear Assoc: 0.96 0.90 0.82 0.74 0.62 0.55 0.46 Skill: 0.91 0.90 0.64 0.50 0.34 0.22 0.08 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 128.82 129.25 129.32 128.86 128.74 128.27 127.63 Mean (x): 128.79 128.79 128.79 128.79 128.79 128.79 128.79 Median (f): 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 120.00 Median (x): 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 Std Dev (f): 27.38 27.11 26.53 26.46 24.71 23.92 23.23 Std Dev (x): 29.58 29.58 29.58 29.58 29.58 29.58 29.58 Std Dev (f-x): 9.37 13.37 17.87 22.09 24.08 25.85 26.93 ME: 0.03 0.46 0.53 0.06 -0.05 -0.51 -1.16 MAE: 5.81 9.13 12.43 15.11 16.81 18.29 19.07 MSE: 87.59 178.58 318.95 486.94 578.30 667.14 724.83 RMSE: 9.35 13.36 17.85 22.06 24.04 25.82 26.92 Linear Assoc: 0.94 0.89 0.80 0.69 0.62 0.55 0.50 Skill: 0.90 0.79 0.63 0.44 0.33 0.23 0.17 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 179.75 180.18 180.51 180.78 181.22 181.64 181.88 Mean (x): 179.53 179.53 179.53 179.53 179.53 179.53 179.53 Median (f): 180.00 175.00 175.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 175.00 Median (x): 179.00 179.00 179.00 179.00 179.00 179.00 179.00 Std Dev (f): 29.44 29.49 29.33 28.96 28.80 28.59 28.31 Std Dev (x): 29.33 29.33 29.33 29.33 29.33 29.33 29.33 Std Dev (f-x): 8.13 12.09 15.23 18.58 21.43 23.79 25.60 ME: 0.21 0.65 0.98 1.25 1.69 2.11 2.35 MAE: 6.13 9.46 11.80 14.40 16.67 19.18 20.85 MSE: 66.02 146.18 232.40 345.93 461.03 569.01 658.97 RMSE: 8.13 12.09 15.24 18.60 21.47 23.85 25.67 Linear Assoc: 0.96 0.92 0.87 0.80 0.73 0.66 0.61 Skill: 0.92 0.83 0.73 0.60 0.46 0.34 0.23 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 179.96 179.49 178.78 178.15 177.41 176.74 176.15 Mean (x): 181.45 181.45 181.45 181.45 181.45 181.45 181.45 Median (f): 170.00 170.00 170.00 170.00 170.00 175.00 175.00 Median (x): 173.00 173.00 173.00 173.00 173.00 173.00 173.00 Std Dev (f): 39.11 38.35 37.18 35.88 33.98 32.37 30.88 Std Dev (x): 41.09 41.09 41.09 41.09 41.09 41.09 41.09 Std Dev (f-x): 10.33 14.92 19.60 23.18 26.71 29.57 31.93 ME: -1.49 -1.97 -2.67 -3.30 -4.05 -4.71 -5.30 MAE: 7.56 11.27 14.60 17.74 20.13 22.56 24.44 MSE: 108.56 225.76 390.30 546.58 727.91 894.14 1044.75 RMSE: 10.42 15.03 19.76 23.38 26.98 29.90 32.32 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.93 0.88 0.83 0.76 0.70 0.64 Skill: 0.94 0.87 0.77 0.68 0.57 0.47 0.38 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 179.33 179.30 179.19 179.03 178.75 178.87 178.82 Mean (x): 179.54 179.54 179.54 179.54 179.54 179.54 179.54 Median (f): 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 180.00 Median (x): 178.00 178.00 178.00 178.00 178.00 178.00 178.00 Std Dev (f): 28.95 29.06 29.09 28.58 27.99 27.24 26.84 Std Dev (x): 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 28.66 Std Dev (f-x): 8.79 13.57 18.14 22.21 25.69 28.61 30.88 ME: -0.21 -0.24 -0.35 -0.52 -0.80 -0.68 -0.73 MAE: 6.58 10.40 13.55 16.69 19.59 21.90 23.43 MSE: 77.01 183.65 328.30 492.05 658.92 816.96 951.31 RMSE: 8.78 13.55 18.12 22.18 25.67 28.58 30.84 Linear Assoc: 0.95 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.59 0.48 0.38 Skill: 0.91 0.78 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.16 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 364 364 364 364 Mean (f): 153.43 153.48 153.13 153.04 152.61 152.60 152.56 Mean (x): 153.69 153.69 153.69 153.81 153.82 153.83 153.84 Median (f): 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 Median (x): 151.00 151.00 151.00 151.00 151.00 151.00 151.00 Std Dev (f): 30.57 30.15 29.44 28.60 27.83 26.90 25.91 Std Dev (x): 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 Std Dev (f-x): 9.01 13.46 17.00 20.01 22.47 24.36 26.09 ME: -0.26 -0.21 -0.56 -0.78 -1.21 -1.23 -1.28 MAE: 6.60 10.38 13.33 15.91 17.63 19.03 20.39 MSE: 80.98 180.58 288.50 400.08 504.75 593.07 680.27 RMSE: 9.00 13.44 16.99 20.00 22.47 24.35 26.08 Linear Assoc: 0.96 0.91 0.85 0.78 0.72 0.66 0.60 Skill: 0.92 0.82 0.71 0.60 0.49 0.41 0.32 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 356 355 354 353 Mean (f): 117.79 117.53 117.24 116.59 116.27 115.88 115.68 Mean (x): 118.14 118.14 118.14 118.13 118.17 118.18 118.22 Median (f): 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Median (x): 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 Std Dev (f): 21.42 21.33 21.12 20.94 20.75 20.56 20.42 Std Dev (x): 22.03 22.03 22.03 22.03 22.03 22.03 22.03 Std Dev (f-x): 5.74 8.44 10.75 12.62 14.26 15.82 17.06 ME: -0.35 -0.61 -0.90 -1.54 -1.90 -2.30 -2.55 MAE: 4.27 6.37 8.07 9.61 10.88 12.00 12.93 MSE: 32.96 71.41 116.09 161.28 206.32 254.86 296.52 RMSE: 5.74 8.45 10.77 12.70 14.36 15.96 17.22 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.92 0.87 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.68 Skill: 0.93 0.85 0.75 0.66 0.57 0.47 0.39 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 351 351 351 351 Mean (f): 81.05 81.01 80.73 80.59 80.27 79.93 79.54 Mean (x): 81.05 81.05 81.05 81.36 81.35 81.33 81.33 Median (f): 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 Median (x): 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00 Std Dev (f): 11.98 12.12 11.89 11.67 11.35 10.80 10.21 Std Dev (x): 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 Std Dev (f-x): 3.00 4.44 5.58 6.76 7.36 7.69 8.09 ME: 0.00 -0.04 -0.32 -0.77 -1.07 -1.40 -1.79 MAE: 2.03 2.91 3.68 4.41 4.93 5.21 5.54 MSE: 8.96 19.68 31.21 46.13 55.10 60.93 68.42 RMSE: 2.99 4.44 5.59 6.79 7.42 7.81 8.27 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.80 0.78 0.74 Skill: 0.94 0.86 0.78 0.67 0.61 0.57 0.52 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 352 351 350 349 Mean (f): 72.09 72.03 71.86 71.58 71.46 71.26 71.09 Mean (x): 72.03 72.03 72.03 71.71 71.69 71.68 71.69 Median (f): 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Median (x): 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Std Dev (f): 5.67 5.51 5.23 4.77 4.58 4.19 3.76 Std Dev (x): 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 Std Dev (f-x): 1.86 2.97 3.94 4.69 5.22 5.53 5.62 ME: 0.07 0.00 -0.16 -0.13 -0.23 -0.42 -0.61 MAE: 1.21 1.76 2.28 2.59 2.90 3.17 3.29 MSE: 3.47 8.77 15.52 21.94 27.26 30.66 31.87 RMSE: 1.86 2.96 3.94 4.68 5.22 5.54 5.65 Linear Assoc: 0.95 0.86 0.74 0.59 0.46 0.36 0.29 Skill: 0.89 0.73 0.52 0.26 0.06 -0.06 -0.10 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 77.30 77.27 77.09 77.05 76.82 76.75 76.59 Mean (x): 77.18 77.18 77.18 77.18 77.18 77.18 77.18 Median (f): 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 Median (x): 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 Std Dev (f): 7.02 7.12 7.02 6.88 6.68 6.44 6.29 Std Dev (x): 6.98 6.98 6.98 6.98 6.98 6.98 6.98 Std Dev (f-x): 2.38 3.39 4.12 4.58 5.12 5.51 5.79 ME: 0.12 0.09 -0.09 -0.13 -0.37 -0.44 -0.59 MAE: 1.69 2.43 3.04 3.50 3.85 4.15 4.38 MSE: 5.66 11.49 16.92 20.93 26.24 30.45 33.83 RMSE: 2.38 3.39 4.11 4.58 5.12 5.52 5.82 Linear Assoc: 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.72 0.67 0.62 Skill: 0.88 0.76 0.65 0.57 0.46 0.37 0.30 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 85.98 86.28 86.26 86.30 86.44 86.42 86.61 Mean (x): 85.75 85.75 85.75 85.75 85.75 85.75 85.75 Median (f): 84.00 84.00 83.00 83.00 82.00 82.00 84.00 Median (x): 83.00 83.00 83.00 83.00 83.00 83.00 83.00 Std Dev (f): 13.13 13.24 13.21 13.14 13.12 13.39 13.65 Std Dev (x): 13.12 13.12 13.12 13.12 13.12 13.12 13.12 Std Dev (f-x): 3.22 4.77 6.21 7.38 8.06 8.69 9.11 ME: 0.22 0.53 0.51 0.55 0.69 0.66 0.86 MAE: 2.26 3.43 4.45 5.39 6.06 6.63 7.08 MSE: 10.41 23.01 38.77 54.66 65.30 75.66 83.47 RMSE: 3.23 4.80 6.23 7.39 8.08 8.70 9.14 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.77 Skill: 0.94 0.87 0.77 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.51 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 109.80 109.83 109.82 109.69 109.98 110.04 110.21 Mean (x): 109.70 109.70 109.70 109.70 109.70 109.70 109.70 Median (f): 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 Median (x): 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 105.00 Std Dev (f): 21.53 21.92 22.34 22.72 23.00 23.17 23.26 Std Dev (x): 21.26 21.26 21.26 21.26 21.26 21.26 21.26 Std Dev (f-x): 5.70 8.73 11.45 13.45 15.01 16.30 17.45 ME: 0.10 0.13 0.12 -0.01 0.27 0.34 0.51 MAE: 4.22 6.41 8.42 10.08 11.15 12.29 13.13 MSE: 32.36 75.93 130.81 180.46 224.74 265.16 303.87 RMSE: 5.69 8.71 11.44 13.43 14.99 16.28 17.43 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.92 0.86 0.82 0.77 0.73 0.70 Skill: 0.93 0.83 0.71 0.60 0.50 0.41 0.33 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 Mean (f): 150.51 150.45 150.12 149.64 149.46 149.35 149.92 Mean (x): 150.78 150.78 150.78 150.78 150.78 150.78 150.78 Median (f): 140.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 135.00 Median (x): 137.00 137.00 137.00 137.00 137.00 137.00 137.00 Std Dev (f): 42.64 42.64 42.60 42.57 42.46 42.81 42.47 Std Dev (x): 42.70 42.70 42.70 42.70 42.70 42.70 42.70 Std Dev (f-x): 8.76 13.11 17.35 20.31 22.94 26.04 27.30 ME: -0.27 -0.33 -0.67 -1.15 -1.32 -1.43 -0.86 MAE: 6.25 9.83 13.18 15.69 17.72 19.83 21.02 MSE: 76.59 171.44 300.58 412.59 526.41 678.24 743.73 RMSE: 8.75 13.09 17.34 20.31 22.94 26.04 27.27 Linear Assoc: 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.80 Skill: 0.96 0.91 0.84 0.77 0.71 0.63 0.59 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 207.77 207.72 206.81 205.47 204.42 203.63 203.26 Mean (x): 207.95 207.95 207.95 207.95 207.95 207.95 207.95 Median (f): 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 Median (x): 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 Std Dev (f): 40.88 41.33 40.98 39.66 38.72 38.04 37.57 Std Dev (x): 40.51 40.51 40.51 40.51 40.51 40.51 40.51 Std Dev (f-x): 12.33 17.48 23.04 28.12 32.69 36.26 39.52 ME: -0.19 -0.23 -1.15 -2.48 -3.54 -4.32 -4.70 MAE: 9.22 13.56 18.05 21.78 25.44 27.99 30.10 MSE: 151.52 304.91 530.64 794.58 1077.86 1329.99 1579.64 RMSE: 12.31 17.46 23.04 28.19 32.83 36.47 39.75 Linear Assoc: 0.95 0.91 0.84 0.75 0.66 0.58 0.49 Skill: 0.91 0.81 0.68 0.51 0.34 0.19 0.04 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 188.50 188.86 188.87 188.63 188.69 189.09 189.60 Mean (x): 188.38 188.38 188.38 188.38 188.38 188.38 188.38 Median (f): 185.00 185.00 182.00 182.00 185.00 185.00 185.00 Median (x): 184.00 184.00 184.00 184.00 184.00 184.00 184.00 Std Dev (f): 35.72 36.31 35.42 34.36 33.36 32.17 31.18 Std Dev (x): 35.68 35.68 35.68 35.68 35.68 35.68 35.68 Std Dev (f-x): 9.58 14.69 18.02 21.99 25.77 29.08 31.80 ME: 0.12 0.48 0.49 0.25 0.32 0.72 1.22 MAE: 7.13 10.59 13.94 17.28 20.31 22.87 24.85 MSE: 91.52 215.51 324.12 482.37 662.15 843.84 1010.14 RMSE: 9.57 14.68 18.00 21.96 25.73 29.05 31.78 Linear Assoc: 0.96 0.92 0.87 0.80 0.72 0.64 0.55 Skill: 0.93 0.83 0.75 0.62 0.48 0.34 0.20 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1989 Start: 1/1/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Mean (f): 213.82 213.44 213.01 212.92 213.41 213.39 213.60 Mean (x): 214.07 214.07 214.07 214.07 214.07 214.07 214.07 Median (f): 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 Median (x): 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 Std Dev (f): 34.74 34.71 34.20 32.82 31.67 30.19 29.40 Std Dev (x): 34.45 34.45 34.45 34.45 34.45 34.45 34.45 Std Dev (f-x): 12.47 17.08 21.72 25.76 29.67 33.09 36.17 ME: -0.25 -0.63 -1.06 -1.15 -0.66 -0.69 -0.47 MAE: 9.49 13.02 17.05 19.87 23.41 26.74 29.13 MSE: 155.05 291.38 471.56 663.01 878.56 1092.61 1304.96 RMSE: 12.45 17.07 21.72 25.75 29.64 33.06 36.12 Linear Assoc: 0.94 0.88 0.80 0.71 0.60 0.48 0.37 Skill: 0.87 0.75 0.60 0.44 0.26 0.08 -0.10 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 140.85 140.38 139.79 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 141.53 141.53 141.53 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 136.00 135.00 134.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 137.00 137.00 137.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 32.89 32.80 32.37 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 33.14 33.14 33.14 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 6.82 10.70 13.84 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: -0.68 -1.15 -1.74 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 4.93 8.02 10.21 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 46.80 115.45 193.93 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 6.84 10.75 13.93 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.98 0.95 0.91 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.96 0.90 0.82 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 365 365 365 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 85.46 85.17 84.81 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 85.52 85.52 85.52 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 84.00 84.00 83.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 84.00 84.00 84.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 11.98 11.68 11.42 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 12.18 12.18 12.18 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 2.82 4.21 5.53 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: -0.06 -0.35 -0.71 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 1.90 2.93 3.83 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 7.94 17.79 31.04 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 2.82 4.22 5.57 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.94 0.89 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.95 0.88 0.79 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: F10 Solar Flux (integer) Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Total Records: 184 184 184 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f): 73.27 73.09 72.97 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (x): 73.41 73.41 73.41 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f): 71.00 72.00 71.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (x): 72.00 72.00 72.00 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f): 6.76 6.49 6.43 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (x): 7.02 7.02 7.02 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f-x): 1.73 2.74 3.48 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: -0.14 -0.32 -0.44 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MAE: 1.11 1.75 2.16 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 MSE: 3.00 7.56 12.22 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 RMSE: 1.73 2.75 3.50 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Linear Assoc: 0.97 0.92 0.87 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: 0.94 0.85 0.75 -99999 -99999 -99999 -99999