NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
The top graph plots the average Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of SWPC A index forecasts for geomagnetic storms (A > 30) for a minimum of a fiscal year or for the last 30 storms during quiet periods. Annual POD and FAR targets are indicated through 2016. The middle plot shows the forecast frequency bias and indicates the amount of over (positive) or under (negative) forecasting. The bottom histogram plots the annual frequency of middle latitude geomagnetic storms based on A index (Fredericksburg, VA data). These metrics will be based on the NOAA estimated Ap index starting in January, 2012.
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