# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Daily M Flare Probability Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Event Days: Total number of days in the sample on which at least one M class flare occurred # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # Mean (f|x=1): Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event # Mean (f|x=0): Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=1): Median forecast given the occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=0): Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=1): Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=0): Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event # Discrimination: The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)] # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear correlation between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 7 7 7 Mean (f): 0.058 0.056 0.055 Mean (x): 0.019 0.019 0.019 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.110 0.107 0.107 Std Dev (x): 0.137 0.137 0.137 Std Dev (f-x): 0.143 0.158 0.171 Mean (f|x=1): 0.336 0.200 0.086 Mean (f|x=0): 0.053 0.053 0.054 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.100 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.308 0.231 0.056 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.096 0.102 0.108 Discrimination: 0.283 0.147 0.031 ME: 0.039 0.037 0.036 MAE: 0.064 0.068 0.071 MSE: 0.022 0.026 0.030 RMSE: 0.148 0.162 0.174 Linear Assoc: 0.353 0.187 0.040 Skill: -0.157 -0.392 -0.612 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 56 56 56 Mean (f): 0.190 0.188 0.182 Mean (x): 0.153 0.153 0.153 Median (f): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f): 0.231 0.227 0.224 Std Dev (x): 0.361 0.361 0.361 Std Dev (f-x): 0.295 0.311 0.327 Mean (f|x=1): 0.505 0.464 0.420 Mean (f|x=0): 0.133 0.138 0.139 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.400 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.286 0.297 0.308 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.165 0.169 0.174 Discrimination: 0.371 0.326 0.281 ME: 0.037 0.035 0.029 MAE: 0.189 0.199 0.207 MSE: 0.088 0.098 0.108 RMSE: 0.297 0.313 0.328 Linear Assoc: 0.580 0.518 0.453 Skill: 0.322 0.248 0.170 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 65 65 65 Mean (f): 0.237 0.228 0.219 Mean (x): 0.178 0.178 0.178 Median (f): 0.150 0.150 0.150 Std Dev (f): 0.218 0.215 0.210 Std Dev (x): 0.383 0.383 0.383 Std Dev (f-x): 0.347 0.363 0.371 Mean (f|x=1): 0.444 0.399 0.368 Mean (f|x=0): 0.192 0.191 0.187 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.300 0.300 Median (f|x=0): 0.150 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.252 0.254 0.250 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.182 0.187 0.186 Discrimination: 0.252 0.208 0.181 ME: 0.059 0.050 0.042 MAE: 0.256 0.264 0.266 MSE: 0.123 0.134 0.139 RMSE: 0.351 0.366 0.373 Linear Assoc: 0.443 0.370 0.329 Skill: 0.156 0.082 0.048 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 79 79 79 Mean (f): 0.298 0.289 0.279 Mean (x): 0.216 0.216 0.216 Median (f): 0.250 0.250 0.250 Std Dev (f): 0.228 0.221 0.215 Std Dev (x): 0.412 0.412 0.412 Std Dev (f-x): 0.365 0.387 0.400 Mean (f|x=1): 0.503 0.448 0.407 Mean (f|x=0): 0.242 0.245 0.243 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.400 0.350 Median (f|x=0): 0.200 0.200 0.200 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.275 0.276 0.264 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.175 0.181 0.184 Discrimination: 0.261 0.204 0.164 ME: 0.082 0.072 0.062 MAE: 0.297 0.311 0.319 MSE: 0.140 0.155 0.164 RMSE: 0.374 0.393 0.405 Linear Assoc: 0.472 0.379 0.315 Skill: 0.177 0.088 0.034 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 136 136 136 Mean (f): 0.478 0.470 0.466 Mean (x): 0.373 0.373 0.373 Median (f): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Std Dev (f): 0.169 0.164 0.162 Std Dev (x): 0.484 0.484 0.484 Std Dev (f-x): 0.465 0.469 0.482 Mean (f|x=1): 0.542 0.525 0.505 Mean (f|x=0): 0.441 0.438 0.443 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Median (f|x=0): 0.400 0.400 0.450 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.161 0.164 0.167 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.164 0.156 0.156 Discrimination: 0.101 0.087 0.062 ME: 0.106 0.098 0.094 MAE: 0.447 0.452 0.463 MSE: 0.226 0.229 0.240 RMSE: 0.476 0.479 0.490 Linear Assoc: 0.288 0.258 0.183 Skill: 0.032 0.019 -0.027 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 149 149 149 Mean (f): 0.491 0.485 0.477 Mean (x): 0.408 0.408 0.408 Median (f): 0.450 0.400 0.400 Std Dev (f): 0.248 0.244 0.241 Std Dev (x): 0.492 0.492 0.492 Std Dev (f-x): 0.428 0.439 0.444 Mean (f|x=1): 0.638 0.618 0.602 Mean (f|x=0): 0.390 0.393 0.390 Median (f|x=1): 0.750 0.750 0.700 Median (f|x=0): 0.350 0.350 0.300 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.209 0.218 0.219 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.220 0.218 0.216 Discrimination: 0.248 0.225 0.213 ME: 0.083 0.076 0.068 MAE: 0.378 0.388 0.393 MSE: 0.190 0.198 0.201 RMSE: 0.435 0.445 0.449 Linear Assoc: 0.494 0.454 0.435 Skill: 0.215 0.181 0.166 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 130 130 130 Mean (f): 0.411 0.406 0.399 Mean (x): 0.355 0.355 0.355 Median (f): 0.400 0.400 0.400 Std Dev (f): 0.207 0.204 0.200 Std Dev (x): 0.479 0.479 0.479 Std Dev (f-x): 0.463 0.470 0.476 Mean (f|x=1): 0.493 0.476 0.459 Mean (f|x=0): 0.366 0.367 0.366 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Median (f|x=0): 0.300 0.300 0.350 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.213 0.208 0.215 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.189 0.191 0.184 Discrimination: 0.126 0.110 0.093 ME: 0.056 0.050 0.044 MAE: 0.416 0.422 0.428 MSE: 0.217 0.223 0.228 RMSE: 0.466 0.472 0.478 Linear Assoc: 0.293 0.258 0.223 Skill: 0.053 0.028 0.003 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 101 101 101 Mean (f): 0.346 0.338 0.330 Mean (x): 0.277 0.277 0.277 Median (f): 0.300 0.300 0.300 Std Dev (f): 0.243 0.240 0.239 Std Dev (x): 0.448 0.448 0.448 Std Dev (f-x): 0.416 0.432 0.435 Mean (f|x=1): 0.502 0.466 0.453 Mean (f|x=0): 0.287 0.289 0.283 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Median (f|x=0): 0.250 0.200 0.200 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.241 0.250 0.257 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.216 0.217 0.215 Discrimination: 0.215 0.177 0.170 ME: 0.070 0.061 0.053 MAE: 0.345 0.357 0.356 MSE: 0.178 0.190 0.192 RMSE: 0.422 0.436 0.438 Linear Assoc: 0.397 0.331 0.319 Skill: 0.112 0.049 0.041 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 364 363 362 Event Days: 74 74 74 Mean (f): 0.232 0.221 0.210 Mean (x): 0.203 0.204 0.204 Median (f): 0.200 0.200 0.200 Std Dev (f): 0.204 0.195 0.187 Std Dev (x): 0.403 0.403 0.404 Std Dev (f-x): 0.374 0.391 0.408 Mean (f|x=1): 0.388 0.338 0.288 Mean (f|x=0): 0.192 0.191 0.190 Median (f|x=1): 0.350 0.300 0.250 Median (f|x=0): 0.150 0.150 0.150 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.236 0.224 0.211 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.174 0.175 0.175 Discrimination: 0.196 0.147 0.097 ME: 0.028 0.017 0.006 MAE: 0.277 0.287 0.297 MSE: 0.141 0.153 0.166 RMSE: 0.375 0.391 0.407 Linear Assoc: 0.388 0.304 0.210 Skill: 0.132 0.058 -0.020 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 14 14 14 Mean (f): 0.068 0.067 0.064 Mean (x): 0.038 0.038 0.038 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.133 0.132 0.132 Std Dev (x): 0.192 0.192 0.192 Std Dev (f-x): 0.203 0.213 0.220 Mean (f|x=1): 0.244 0.186 0.141 Mean (f|x=0): 0.061 0.062 0.061 Median (f|x=1): 0.150 0.150 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.263 0.168 0.139 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.121 0.129 0.131 Discrimination: 0.183 0.124 0.080 ME: 0.030 0.029 0.026 MAE: 0.088 0.091 0.092 MSE: 0.042 0.046 0.049 RMSE: 0.205 0.215 0.221 Linear Assoc: 0.265 0.180 0.116 Skill: -0.136 -0.248 -0.330 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 4 4 4 Mean (f): 0.023 0.021 0.018 Mean (x): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.057 0.047 0.040 Std Dev (x): 0.104 0.104 0.104 Std Dev (f-x): 0.099 0.107 0.107 Mean (f|x=1): 0.215 0.093 0.058 Mean (f|x=0): 0.021 0.020 0.018 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.150 0.010 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.206 0.097 0.095 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.050 0.046 0.039 Discrimination: 0.194 0.073 0.039 ME: 0.012 0.010 0.008 MAE: 0.029 0.030 0.028 MSE: 0.010 0.012 0.012 RMSE: 0.100 0.108 0.108 Linear Assoc: 0.357 0.160 0.104 Skill: 0.079 -0.071 -0.071 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 9 9 9 Mean (f): 0.027 0.025 0.024 Mean (x): 0.025 0.025 0.025 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.042 0.038 0.037 Std Dev (x): 0.155 0.155 0.155 Std Dev (f-x): 0.153 0.155 0.158 Mean (f|x=1): 0.080 0.053 0.033 Mean (f|x=0): 0.025 0.024 0.023 Median (f|x=1): 0.050 0.050 0.010 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.064 0.039 0.032 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.041 0.038 0.037 Discrimination: 0.055 0.029 0.010 ME: 0.002 0.000 -0.001 MAE: 0.047 0.047 0.047 MSE: 0.023 0.024 0.025 RMSE: 0.152 0.155 0.158 Linear Assoc: 0.201 0.121 0.042 Skill: 0.035 -0.001 -0.037 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 21 21 21 Mean (f): 0.063 0.062 0.061 Mean (x): 0.063 0.063 0.063 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.109 0.108 0.110 Std Dev (x): 0.265 0.265 0.265 Std Dev (f-x): 0.240 0.257 0.268 Mean (f|x=1): 0.247 0.199 0.149 Mean (f|x=0): 0.052 0.053 0.056 Median (f|x=1): 0.250 0.200 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.176 0.167 0.151 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.093 0.098 0.105 Discrimination: 0.195 0.146 0.094 ME: 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 MAE: 0.098 0.102 0.107 MSE: 0.057 0.066 0.071 RMSE: 0.239 0.257 0.267 Linear Assoc: 0.426 0.275 0.183 Skill: 0.181 0.057 -0.021 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 56 56 56 Mean (f): 0.190 0.187 0.181 Mean (x): 0.153 0.153 0.153 Median (f): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f): 0.202 0.201 0.199 Std Dev (x): 0.361 0.361 0.361 Std Dev (f-x): 0.350 0.366 0.375 Mean (f|x=1): 0.348 0.307 0.276 Mean (f|x=0): 0.161 0.165 0.163 Median (f|x=1): 0.300 0.250 0.200 Median (f|x=0): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.209 0.215 0.220 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.187 0.191 0.190 Discrimination: 0.187 0.142 0.113 ME: 0.037 0.033 0.027 MAE: 0.237 0.246 0.249 MSE: 0.123 0.135 0.141 RMSE: 0.351 0.367 0.375 Linear Assoc: 0.334 0.254 0.205 Skill: 0.051 -0.036 -0.083 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 97 97 97 Mean (f): 0.327 0.320 0.312 Mean (x): 0.265 0.265 0.265 Median (f): 0.300 0.300 0.300 Std Dev (f): 0.217 0.210 0.204 Std Dev (x): 0.442 0.442 0.442 Std Dev (f-x): 0.417 0.418 0.426 Mean (f|x=1): 0.457 0.441 0.417 Mean (f|x=0): 0.280 0.276 0.274 Median (f|x=1): 0.400 0.400 0.350 Median (f|x=0): 0.250 0.250 0.250 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.238 0.239 0.238 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.189 0.180 0.175 Discrimination: 0.177 0.165 0.143 ME: 0.062 0.055 0.047 MAE: 0.350 0.351 0.356 MSE: 0.177 0.178 0.183 RMSE: 0.421 0.421 0.428 Linear Assoc: 0.359 0.347 0.309 Skill: 0.092 0.088 0.061 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 218 218 218 Mean (f): 0.578 0.561 0.549 Mean (x): 0.597 0.597 0.597 Median (f): 0.600 0.600 0.500 Std Dev (f): 0.248 0.246 0.244 Std Dev (x): 0.491 0.491 0.491 Std Dev (f-x): 0.439 0.467 0.480 Mean (f|x=1): 0.670 0.631 0.607 Mean (f|x=0): 0.441 0.457 0.462 Median (f|x=1): 0.700 0.700 0.650 Median (f|x=0): 0.400 0.400 0.400 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.222 0.234 0.237 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.221 0.228 0.230 Discrimination: 0.229 0.174 0.146 ME: -0.019 -0.036 -0.049 MAE: 0.375 0.405 0.420 MSE: 0.192 0.219 0.232 RMSE: 0.439 0.468 0.482 Linear Assoc: 0.452 0.346 0.293 Skill: 0.200 0.091 0.034 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 171 171 171 Mean (f): 0.468 0.460 0.455 Mean (x): 0.468 0.468 0.468 Median (f): 0.500 0.450 0.450 Std Dev (f): 0.222 0.220 0.220 Std Dev (x): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Std Dev (f-x): 0.478 0.489 0.496 Mean (f|x=1): 0.544 0.523 0.511 Mean (f|x=0): 0.402 0.405 0.406 Median (f|x=1): 0.600 0.500 0.500 Median (f|x=0): 0.400 0.400 0.400 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.220 0.222 0.224 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.203 0.202 0.205 Discrimination: 0.142 0.118 0.105 ME: 0.000 -0.008 -0.013 MAE: 0.427 0.439 0.445 MSE: 0.228 0.239 0.245 RMSE: 0.477 0.488 0.495 Linear Assoc: 0.319 0.268 0.238 Skill: 0.086 0.042 0.015 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1989 Start: 1/1/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 237 237 237 Mean (f): 0.641 0.632 0.621 Mean (x): 0.649 0.649 0.649 Median (f): 0.700 0.650 0.650 Std Dev (f): 0.252 0.252 0.255 Std Dev (x): 0.478 0.478 0.478 Std Dev (f-x): 0.436 0.450 0.458 Mean (f|x=1): 0.719 0.701 0.685 Mean (f|x=0): 0.497 0.506 0.502 Median (f|x=1): 0.800 0.800 0.750 Median (f|x=0): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.233 0.241 0.248 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.219 0.222 0.225 Discrimination: 0.222 0.195 0.183 ME: -0.008 -0.017 -0.028 MAE: 0.357 0.372 0.380 MSE: 0.190 0.202 0.210 RMSE: 0.436 0.450 0.458 Linear Assoc: 0.422 0.370 0.344 Skill: 0.167 0.111 0.078 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 107 107 107 Mean (f): 0.348 0.338 0.326 Mean (x): 0.292 0.292 0.292 Median (f): 0.300 0.300 0.250 Std Dev (f): 0.254 0.253 0.251 Std Dev (x): 0.455 0.455 0.455 Std Dev (f-x): 0.412 0.417 0.419 Mean (f|x=1): 0.523 0.504 0.488 Mean (f|x=0): 0.276 0.269 0.259 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.500 Median (f|x=0): 0.200 0.200 0.200 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.249 0.242 0.244 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.219 0.224 0.221 Discrimination: 0.247 0.235 0.229 ME: 0.056 0.046 0.034 MAE: 0.335 0.336 0.333 MSE: 0.172 0.176 0.176 RMSE: 0.415 0.419 0.420 Linear Assoc: 0.442 0.423 0.416 Skill: 0.167 0.151 0.149 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 23 23 23 Mean (f): 0.069 0.067 0.062 Mean (x): 0.063 0.063 0.063 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.111 0.112 0.107 Std Dev (x): 0.243 0.243 0.243 Std Dev (f-x): 0.244 0.256 0.259 Mean (f|x=1): 0.163 0.116 0.090 Mean (f|x=0): 0.063 0.064 0.060 Median (f|x=1): 0.150 0.150 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.133 0.091 0.081 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.107 0.112 0.109 Discrimination: 0.101 0.052 0.030 ME: 0.006 0.004 -0.001 MAE: 0.112 0.115 0.114 MSE: 0.060 0.065 0.067 RMSE: 0.244 0.256 0.259 Linear Assoc: 0.220 0.113 0.069 Skill: -0.008 -0.107 -0.133 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an M class flare Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 184 184 184 Event Days: 1 1 1 Mean (f): 0.052 0.049 0.045 Mean (x): 0.005 0.005 0.005 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.104 0.101 0.095 Std Dev (x): 0.074 0.074 0.074 Std Dev (f-x): 0.107 0.104 0.120 Mean (f|x=1): 0.500 0.500 0.050 Mean (f|x=0): 0.050 0.046 0.045 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.099 0.096 0.096 Discrimination: 0.450 0.454 0.005 ME: 0.047 0.043 0.040 MAE: 0.052 0.049 0.050 MSE: 0.014 0.013 0.016 RMSE: 0.116 0.112 0.126 Linear Assoc: 0.318 0.331 0.004 Skill: -1.505 -1.323 -1.953