The annual trend, from 1986 to 2006, of various verification metrics for M flare forecasts with lead times of one to three days. The top panel plots the number of days on which an M flare occurred during the year (event climatology), the second panel plots the mean value of the forecasts associated with days on which an M flare occurred, the third panel plots the mean value of the forecasts associated with days on which an M flare did not occur, and the bottom panel displays annual SEC forecast skill relative to sample climatology forecasts (prediction efficiency).

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