NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

High Latitude Geomagnetic Probability Stack Plot

 

These plots show the annual trend, from 2000 to 2013, of various verification metrics for next-day (1-day lead time) high-latitude geomagnetic probability forecasts. SWPC forecast metrics are compared to those for 30-day climatology forecasts and 1-day persistence forecasts. The top panel plots the number of days in each of four geomagnetic activity categories per year: Quiet to Unsettled, Active, Minor Storm, and Major to Severe Storm. The second panel plots the forecast Reliability (0 or greater with smaller values better), the third panel shows one type of forecast Resolution (0 or greater with larger values better), and the bottom panel plots another type of forecast Resolution (0 or greater with smaller values better). Detailed definitions of these metrics are located in the Verification Glossary.

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