# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Probability Forecasts of # Next-Day High-Latitude Geomagnetic Category # # Total Records: Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Event Days: Total number of days in the sample within each of four geomagnetic activity # categories: Quiet to Unsettled (Q-U), Active (A), Minor Storm (Mn Stm), # Major to Severe Storm (Mj-Svr Stm). See note below for more information. # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # Mean (f|x=1): Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event # Mean (f|x=0): Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=1): Median forecast given the occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=0): Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=1): Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=0): Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event # Discrimination: The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)] # ME: Mean error # RPSsc: Ranked probability score for sample climatology forecasts (smaller better) # RPS: Ranked probability score for SEC forecasts (smaller better) # REL: Reliability (smaller better) # RES 1: Resolution 1 (larger better). See verification glossary for detailed definition. # RES 2: Resolution 2 (smaller better). See verification glossary for detailed definition. # # Missing data: -99999 # # Note: The geomagnetic category for the day is determined by the highest # observed k-index for the day. Quiet to Unsettled = k 0 to k 3, # Active = k 4, Minor Storm = k 5, Major to Severe Storm = k 6 to k 9. # High latitude forecasts are verified against College, AK observations. # Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 210 46 43 66 Mean (f): 0.610 0.233 0.114 0.044 Mean (x): 0.575 0.126 0.118 0.181 Median (f): 0.690 0.200 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.203 0.093 0.073 0.071 Std Dev (x): 0.495 0.332 0.323 0.385 Std Dev (f-x): 0.456 0.344 0.318 0.371 Mean (f|x=1): 0.678 0.236 0.149 0.087 Mean (f|x=0): 0.517 0.232 0.109 0.035 Median (f|x=1): 0.740 0.200 0.150 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.550 0.200 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.160 0.080 0.071 0.110 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.219 0.094 0.072 0.055 Discrimination: 0.161 0.004 0.040 0.052 ME: 0.034 0.107 -0.004 -0.137 RPSsc: 0.602 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.569 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.175 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.208 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.394 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 140 66 63 96 Mean (f): 0.508 0.273 0.151 0.067 Mean (x): 0.384 0.181 0.173 0.263 Median (f): 0.550 0.250 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.214 0.090 0.092 0.078 Std Dev (x): 0.487 0.385 0.378 0.441 Std Dev (f-x): 0.443 0.392 0.386 0.420 Mean (f|x=1): 0.621 0.281 0.160 0.113 Mean (f|x=0): 0.438 0.271 0.150 0.051 Median (f|x=1): 0.650 0.300 0.150 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.450 0.250 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.145 0.088 0.073 0.104 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.220 0.091 0.096 0.057 Discrimination: 0.183 0.010 0.010 0.062 ME: 0.125 0.092 -0.021 -0.196 RPSsc: 0.676 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.682 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.224 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.218 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.458 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 115 52 54 145 Mean (f): 0.492 0.281 0.159 0.068 Mean (x): 0.314 0.142 0.148 0.396 Median (f): 0.500 0.300 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.214 0.084 0.097 0.068 Std Dev (x): 0.465 0.350 0.355 0.490 Std Dev (f-x): 0.437 0.358 0.375 0.473 Mean (f|x=1): 0.605 0.285 0.141 0.095 Mean (f|x=0): 0.441 0.280 0.162 0.051 Median (f|x=1): 0.640 0.300 0.150 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.450 0.300 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.162 0.087 0.071 0.084 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.216 0.084 0.101 0.048 Discrimination: 0.164 0.004 -0.021 0.044 ME: 0.178 0.139 0.011 -0.328 RPSsc: 0.703 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.881 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.386 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.207 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.495 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 57 46 82 180 Mean (f): 0.339 0.347 0.212 0.102 Mean (x): 0.156 0.126 0.225 0.493 Median (f): 0.350 0.350 0.200 0.100 Std Dev (f): 0.219 0.100 0.106 0.097 Std Dev (x): 0.364 0.332 0.418 0.501 Std Dev (f-x): 0.349 0.345 0.431 0.485 Mean (f|x=1): 0.526 0.351 0.213 0.127 Mean (f|x=0): 0.305 0.346 0.212 0.078 Median (f|x=1): 0.590 0.350 0.200 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.300 0.350 0.200 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.231 0.079 0.098 0.114 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.199 0.102 0.109 0.067 Discrimination: 0.221 0.005 0.001 0.049 ME: 0.183 0.221 -0.012 -0.391 RPSsc: 0.584 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.888 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.555 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.251 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.334 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 139 63 66 97 Mean (f): 0.523 0.293 0.136 0.049 Mean (x): 0.381 0.173 0.181 0.266 Median (f): 0.590 0.250 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.220 0.106 0.085 0.055 Std Dev (x): 0.486 0.378 0.385 0.442 Std Dev (f-x): 0.477 0.402 0.394 0.431 Mean (f|x=1): 0.598 0.272 0.138 0.073 Mean (f|x=0): 0.476 0.297 0.136 0.040 Median (f|x=1): 0.650 0.250 0.150 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.500 0.300 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.179 0.105 0.073 0.061 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.231 0.106 0.088 0.050 Discrimination: 0.122 -0.025 0.003 0.033 ME: 0.142 0.120 -0.045 -0.217 RPSsc: 0.678 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.771 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.322 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.230 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.448 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Total Records: 365 365 365 365 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm Event Days: 148 69 80 68 Mean (f): 0.535 0.274 0.136 0.055 Mean (x): 0.405 0.189 0.219 0.186 Median (f): 0.600 0.250 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.215 0.094 0.088 0.084 Std Dev (x): 0.492 0.392 0.414 0.390 Std Dev (f-x): 0.485 0.400 0.426 0.367 Mean (f|x=1): 0.600 0.280 0.131 0.120 Mean (f|x=0): 0.491 0.272 0.137 0.040 Median (f|x=1): 0.640 0.250 0.100 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.550 0.250 0.100 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.174 0.101 0.073 0.145 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.229 0.092 0.091 0.053 Discrimination: 0.109 0.008 -0.006 0.080 ME: 0.130 0.085 -0.083 -0.131 RPSsc: 0.634 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.671 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.257 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.219 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.414 -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Total Records: 366 366 366 366 Geomag Category: Q-U A Mn Stm Mj-Svr Stm #Event Days: 122 61 82 101 Mean (f): 0.481 0.299 0.155 0.065 Mean (x): 0.333 0.167 0.224 0.276 Median (f): 0.520 0.300 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.241 0.122 0.109 0.101 Std Dev (x): 0.472 0.373 0.418 0.448 Std Dev (f-x): 0.488 0.377 0.438 0.441 Mean (f|x=1): 0.545 0.334 0.144 0.093 Mean (f|x=0): 0.449 0.292 0.159 0.054 Median (f|x=1): 0.600 0.300 0.100 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.490 0.300 0.150 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.227 0.137 0.099 0.128 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.241 0.118 0.112 0.086 Discrimination: 0.095 0.042 -0.015 0.039 ME: 0.148 0.132 -0.069 -0.211 RPSsc: 0.672 -99999 -99999 -99999 RPS: 0.828 -99999 -99999 -99999 REL: 0.399 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 1: 0.243 -99999 -99999 -99999 RES 2: 0.429 -99999 -99999 -99999