NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Geomagnetic Probability Middle Latitude Forecast Ranked Probability Score


This plot shows the ranked probability score (RPS) for next-day (1-day lead time) middle-latitude geomagnetic probability forecasts from 1993 to 2013. The annual RPS for SWPC forecasts is compared to forecasts of short-term (30-day) climatology and 1-day persistence. The RPS is the mean square error of probability forecasts for ordinal predictands and is greater than or equal to 0. Smaller values are better. The bottom panel histogram shows the number of days in each geomagnetic activity category per year: Quiet to Unsettled, Active, Minor Storm, and Major to Severe Storm.

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