# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
# Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
#       Annual Verification Statistics for Probability Forecasts of
#           Next-Day Middle-Latitude Geomagnetic Category
#
# Total Records:  Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic
# Event Days:  Total number of days in the sample within each of four geomagnetic activity
#               categories: Quiet to Unsettled (Q-U), Active (A), Minor Storm (Mn Stm),
#               Major to Severe Storm (Mj-Svr Stm).  See note below for more information.
# Mean (f):  Mean forecast
# Mean (x):  Mean observation
# Median (f):  Median forecast
# Std Dev (f):  Standard deviation of forecasts
# Std Dev (x):  Standard deviation of observations
# Std Dev (f-x):  Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations
# Mean (f|x=1):  Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event
# Mean (f|x=0):  Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event
# Median (f|x=1):  Median forecast given the occurrence of an event
# Median (f|x=0):  Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event
# Std Dev (f|x=1):  Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event
# Std Dev (f|x=0):  Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event
# Discrimination:  The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)]
# ME:  Mean error
# RPSsc:  Ranked probability score for sample climatology forecasts (smaller better)
# RPS:  Ranked probability score for SEC forecasts (smaller better)
# REL:  Reliability (smaller better)
# RES 1:  Resolution 1 (larger better).  See verification glossary for detailed definition.
# RES 2:  Resolution 2 (smaller better).  See verification glossary for detailed definition.
#
# Missing data:  -99999
#
# Note:  The geomagnetic category for the day is determined by the highest
#         observed k-index for the day.  Quiet to Unsettled = k 0 to k 3,
#         Active = k 4, Minor Storm = k 5, Major to Severe Storm = k 6 to k 9.
#         Middle latitude forecasts are verified against Fredericksburg, VA observations.
#

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2012
Start:              1/1/12
End:              12/31/12
Total Records:         366       366       366       366
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       293	      40	    24	       9
Mean (f):	     0.786     0.144	 0.052	   0.017
Mean (x):	     0.801     0.109	 0.066	   0.025
Median (f):	     0.880     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.184     0.106	 0.067	   0.035
Std Dev (x):	     0.400     0.312	 0.248	   0.155
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.356     0.301	 0.239	   0.154
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.828     0.229	 0.120	   0.049
Mean (f|x=0)	     0.619     0.134	 0.048	   0.017
Median (f|x=1):	     0.880     0.250	 0.100	   0.050
Median (f|x=0):	     0.640     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.154     0.107	 0.105	   0.049
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.198     0.101	 0.061	   0.034
Discrimination:	     0.209     0.095	 0.072	   0.032
ME:	            -0.014     0.035	-0.013	  -0.007
RPSsc:	             0.266    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.223    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.060    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.103    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.163    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2011
Start:              1/1/11
End:              12/31/11
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       315	  37	     7	       6
Mean (f):	     0.776     0.150	 0.055	   0.019
Mean (x):	     0.863     0.101	 0.019	   0.016
Median (f):	     0.840     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.192     0.107	 0.078	   0.038
Std Dev (x):	     0.344     0.302	 0.137	   0.127
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.327     0.298	 0.147	   0.120
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.804     0.218	 0.141	   0.120
Mean (f|x=0):	     0.599     0.143	 0.053	   0.017
Median (f|x=1):	     0.880     0.200	 0.170	   0.050
Median (f|x=0):	     0.640     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.167     0.102	 0.095	   0.189
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.245     0.105	 0.076	   0.029
Discrimination:	     0.205     0.075	 0.088	   0.103
ME:	            -0.087     0.049	 0.036	   0.002
RPSsc:	             0.169    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.165    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.086    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.090    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.079    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2010
Start:              1/1/10
End:              12/31/10
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       325	  30	     8	       2
Mean (f):	     0.799     0.145	 0.042	   0.015
Mean (x):	     0.890     0.082	 0.022	   0.005
Median (f):	     0.880     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.178     0.115	 0.060	   0.020
Std Dev (x):	     0.313     0.275	 0.147	   0.074
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.323     0.276	 0.151	   0.077
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.813     0.222	 0.090	   0.010
Mean (f|x=0):	     0.683     0.138	 0.041	   0.015
Median (f|x=1):	     0.880     0.200	 0.100	   0.010
Median (f|x=0):	     0.740     0.100	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.167     0.146	 0.076	   0.000
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.219     0.109	 0.059	   0.020
Discrimination:	     0.130     0.084	 0.049	  -0.005
ME:	            -0.091     0.062	 0.020	   0.009
RPSsc:	             0.130    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.149    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.043    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.024    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.106    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2009
Start:              1/1/09
End:              12/31/09
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       352	  12	     1	       0
Mean (f):	     0.895     0.076     0.018	   0.011
Mean (x):	     0.964     0.033	 0.003	   0.000
Median (f):	     0.930     0.050	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.085     0.062	 0.023	   0.006
Std Dev (x):	     0.186     0.179	 0.052	   0.000
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.203     0.188	 0.058	   0.006
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.896     0.080	 0.010	  -99999
Mean (f|x=0):	     0.889     0.076	 0.018	   0.011
Median (f|x=1):	     0.930     0.050    -99999	  -99999
Median (f|x=0):	     0.930     0.050	 0.010	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.085     0.053    -99999	  -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.077     0.063     0.023	   0.006
Discrimination:	     0.006     0.004	-0.008	  -99999
ME:	            -0.069     0.043	 0.015	   0.011
RPSsc:	             0.037    -99999    -99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.050    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.014    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.001    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.036    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2008
Start:              1/1/08
End:              12/31/08
Total Records:         366       366       366       366
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       326	  32	     8	       0
Mean (f):	     0.797     0.141	 0.046	   0.016
Mean (x):	     0.891     0.087	 0.022	   0.000
Median (f):	     0.840     0.100	 0.050	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.161     0.105     0.050	   0.018
Std Dev (x):	     0.312     0.283	 0.146	   0.000
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.296     0.265	 0.151	   0.018
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.817     0.259	 0.071	  -99999
Mean (f|x=0):	     0.633     0.129	 0.046	   0.016
Median (f|x=1):	     0.840     0.250	 0.050	  -99999
Median (f|x=0):	     0.640     0.100	 0.050	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.145     0.117	 0.056	  -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.189     0.096	 0.049	   0.018
Discrimination:	     0.184     0.130	 0.026	  -99999
ME:	            -0.093     0.053	 0.024	   0.016
RPSsc:	             0.119    -99999    -99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.122    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.041    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.037    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.081    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2007
Start:              1/1/07
End:              12/31/07
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:	       317	  37	    10	       1
Mean (f):	     0.739     0.169	 0.071	   0.021
Mean (x):	     0.868     0.101	 0.027	   0.003
Median (f):	     0.790     0.150	 0.050	   0.010
Std Dev (f):	     0.158     0.089	 0.055	   0.023
Std Dev (x):	     0.338     0.302	 0.163	   0.052
Std Dev (f-x):	     0.319     0.294	 0.161	   0.056
Mean (f|x=1):	     0.761     0.232	 0.140	   0.050
Mean (f|x=0):	     0.595     0.162	 0.069	   0.021
Median (f|x=1):	     0.790     0.200	 0.150	  -99999
Median (f|x=0):	     0.600     0.150	 0.050	   0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.143     0.094	 0.061	  -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.173     0.086	 0.054	   0.023
Discrimination:	     0.165     0.071	 0.071	   0.029
ME:	             -0.13     0.068	 0.044	   0.018
RPSsc:	             0.146    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RPS:	             0.154    -99999	-99999	  -99999
REL:	             0.054    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 1:	             0.047    -99999	-99999	  -99999
RES 2:	             0.099    -99999	-99999	  -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2006
Start:              1/1/06
End:              12/31/06
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:           301        49        10         5
Mean (f):           0.717     0.178     0.078     0.027
Mean (x):           0.825     0.134     0.027     0.014
Median (f):         0.790     0.150     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f):        0.168     0.084     0.060     0.055
Std Dev (x):        0.381     0.341     0.163     0.116
Std Dev (f-x):      0.342     0.322     0.162     0.105
Mean (f|x=1):       0.751     0.253     0.150     0.234
Mean (f|x=0):       0.557     0.166     0.076     0.024
Median (f|x=1):     0.790     0.250     0.150     0.100
Median (f|x=0):     0.590     0.150     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):    0.135     0.098     0.075     0.269
Std Dev (f|x=0):    0.210     0.075     0.058     0.041
Discrimination:     0.194     0.087     0.074     0.210
ME:                -0.107     0.044     0.050     0.013
RPSsc:              0.198    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                0.180    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                0.064    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:              0.081    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:              0.116    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2005
Start:              1/1/05
End:              12/31/05
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:           255        68        31        11
Mean (f):           0.631     0.221     0.108     0.040
Mean (x):           0.699     0.186     0.085     0.030
Median (f):         0.690     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f):        0.191     0.083     0.081     0.055
Std Dev (x):        0.459     0.390     0.279     0.171
Std Dev (f-x):      0.409     0.382     0.267     0.164
Mean (f|x=1):       0.689     0.256     0.185     0.128
Mean (f|x=0):       0.498     0.213     0.101     0.037
Median (f|x=1):     0.690     0.250     0.200     0.100
Median (f|x=0):     0.500     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):    0.139     0.083     0.121     0.109
Std Dev (f|x=0):    0.226     0.082     0.072     0.051
Discrimination:     0.191     0.043     0.085     0.091
ME:                -0.067     0.034     0.023     0.010
RPSsc:              0.342    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                0.281    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                0.069    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:              0.129    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:              0.212    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2004
Start:              1/1/04
End:              12/31/04
Total Records:         366       366       366       366
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:           203       101        48        14
Mean (f):           0.620     0.230     0.110     0.041
Mean (x):           0.555     0.276     0.131     0.038
Median (f):         0.650     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f):        0.200     0.088     0.084     0.050
Std Dev (x):        0.498     0.448     0.338     0.192
Std Dev (f-x):      0.463     0.442     0.331     0.176
Mean (f|x=1):       0.687     0.252     0.155     0.148
Mean (f|x=0):       0.538     0.221     0.103     0.036
Median (f|x=1):     0.740     0.250     0.150     0.150
Median (f|x=0):     0.550     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):    0.164     0.083     0.099     0.117
Ttd Dev (f|x=0):    0.210     0.088     0.080     0.040
Discrimination:     0.149     0.031     0.052     0.112
ME:                 0.066    -0.046    -0.022     0.002
RPSsc:              0.425    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                0.371    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                0.092    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:              0.146    -99999    -99999    -99999 
RES 2:              0.279    -99999    -99999    -99999 

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2003
Start:              1/1/03
End:              12/31/03
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            15       119        68        22 
Mean (f):           0.477     0.303     0.156     0.064
Mean (x):           0.427     0.326     0.186     0.060
Median (f):         0.450     0.300     0.150     0.050
Std Dev (f):        0.206     0.093     0.089     0.076
Std Dev (x):        0.495     0.469     0.390     0.238
Std Dev (f-x):      0.438     0.463     0.374     0.219
Mean (f|x=1):       0.589     0.324     0.210     0.185
Mean (f|x=0):       0.394     0.292     0.144     0.056
Median (f|x=1):     0.600     0.350     0.200     0.100
Median (f|x=0):     0.400     0.300     0.150     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):    0.176     0.072     0.090     0.215
Std Dev (f|x=0):    0.186     0.100     0.084     0.047
Discrimination:     0.195     0.032     0.066     0.129
ME:                 0.050    -0.023    -0.030     0.003
RPSsc:              0.487    -99999    -99999    -99999     
RPS:                0.401    -99999    -99999    -99999     
REL:                0.098    -99999    -99999    -99999     
RES 1:              0.185    -99999    -99999    -99999     
RES 2:              0.303    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2002
Start:              1/1/02
End:              12/31/02
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            252        76        25        12
Mean (f):            0.614     0.250     0.100     0.035
Mean (x):            0.690     0.208     0.068     0.033
Median (f):          0.690     0.250     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.206     0.110     0.070     0.041
Std Dev (x):         0.463     0.407     0.253     0.179
Std Dev (f-x):       0.445     0.413     0.246     0.172
Mean (f|x=1):        0.657     0.266     0.160     0.097
Mean (f|x=0):        0.520     0.246     0.096     0.033
Median (f|x=1):      0.690     0.250     0.150     0.100
Median (f|x=0):      0.500     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.183     0.105     0.076     0.048
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.224     0.111     0.068     0.040
Discrimination:      0.137     0.021     0.064     0.064
ME:                 -0.076     0.042     0.032     0.002
RPSsc:               0.337    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.314    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.088    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.111    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.226    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2001
Start:              1/1/01
End:              12/31/01
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            246        80        28        11
Mean (f):            0.629     0.228     0.102     0.041
Mean (x):            0.674     0.219     0.077     0.030
Median (f):          0.690     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.203     0.092     0.079     0.074
Std Dev (x):         0.469     0.414     0.266     0.171
Std Dev (f-x):       0.444     0.414     0.262     0.151
Mean (f|x=1):        0.677     0.247     0.159     0.238
Mean (f|x=0):        0.530     0.222     0.097     0.035
Median (f|x=1):      0.740     0.250     0.150     0.200
Median (f|x=0):      0.590     0.200     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.157     0.100     0.104     0.190
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.247     0.089     0.075     0.058
Discrimination:      0.147     0.025     0.062     0.203
ME:                 -0.045     0.008     0.025     0.011
RPSsc:               0.344    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.299    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.102    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.148    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.197    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 2000
Start:              1/1/00
End:              12/31/00
Total Records:         366       366       366       366
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            205       108        35        18
Mean (f):            0.574     0.255     0.121     0.050
Mean (x):            0.560     0.295     0.096     0.049
Median (f):          0.640     0.250     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.227     0.114     0.092     0.085
Std Dev (x):         0.497     0.457     0.294     0.217
Std Dev (f-x):       0.483     0.455     0.289     0.214
Mean (f|x=1):        0.632     0.279     0.180     0.133
Mean (f|x=0):        0.501     0.245     0.115     0.046
Median (f|x=1):      0.690     0.250     0.150     0.050
Median (f|x=0):      0.550     0.200     0.100     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.197     0.116     0.109     0.195
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.240     0.112     0.088     0.074
Discrimination:      0.131     0.034     0.066     0.088
ME:                  0.014    -0.040     0.025     0.001
RPSsc:               0.417    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.392    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.138    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.163    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.254    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1999
Start:              1/1/99
End:              12/31/99
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            240        83        33         9
Mean (f):            0.652     0.225     0.097     0.027
Mean (x):            0.658     0.227     0.090     0.025
Median (f):          0.690     0.200     0.070     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.195     0.117     0.072     0.033
Std Dev (x):         0.475     0.420     0.287     0.155
Std Dev (f-x):       0.455     0.418     0.280     0.157
Mean (f|x=1):        0.695     0.257     0.148     0.038
Mean (f|x=0):        0.569     0.215     0.092     0.026
Median (f|x=1):      0.740     0.250     0.100     0.050
Median (f|x=0):      0.600     0.200     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.173     0.126     0.116     0.031
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.208     0.113     0.064     0.033
Discrimination:      0.126     0.042     0.057     0.012
ME:                 -0.006    -0.003     0.006     0.002
RPSsc:               0.351    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.326    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.076    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.101    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.250    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1998
Start:              1/1/98
End:              12/31/98
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            259        64        31        11
Mean (f):            0.696     0.183     0.088     0.032
Mean (x):            0.710     0.175     0.085     0.030
Median (f):          0.790     0.150     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.195     0.103     0.080     0.065
Std Dev (x):         0.455     0.381     0.279     0.171
Std Dev (f-x):       0.448     0.387     0.281     0.162
Mean (f|x=1):        0.727     0.200     0.120     0.153
Mean (f|x=0):        0.621     0.180     0.085     0.029
Median (f|x=1):      0.790     0.150     0.100     0.100
Median (f|x=0):      0.700     0.150     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.167     0.106     0.084     0.185
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.235     0.102     0.079     0.054
Discrimination:      0.106     0.020     0.035     0.124
ME:                 -0.013     0.008     0.003     0.002
RPSsc:               0.337    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.316    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.083    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.104    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.233    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1997
Start:              1/1/97
End:              12/31/97
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            265        70        21         9
Mean (f):            0.757     0.155     0.068     0.021
Mean (x):            0.726     0.192     0.058     0.025
Median (f):          0.790     0.150     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.148     0.087     0.049     0.028
Std Dev (x):         0.447     0.394     0.233     0.155
Std Dev (f-x):       0.426     0.388     0.234     0.145
Mean (f|x=1):        0.784     0.186     0.086     0.097
Mean (f|x=0):        0.684     0.147     0.067     0.019
Median (f|x=1):      0.840     0.150     0.050     0.050
Median (f|x=0):      0.750     0.100     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.114     0.102     0.059     0.093
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.196     0.081     0.048     0.022
Discrimination:      0.100     0.039     0.019     0.078
ME:                  0.031    -0.037     0.011    -0.004
RPSsc:               0.298    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.270    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.057    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.085    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.213    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1996
Start:              1/1/96
End:              12/31/96
Total Records:         366       366       366       366
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            260        79        25         2
Mean (f):            0.747     0.148     0.078     0.026
Mean (x):            0.710     0.216     0.068     0.005
Median (f):          0.800     0.100     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f):         0.166     0.097     0.059     0.025
Std Dev (x):         0.454     0.412     0.253     0.074
Std Dev (f-x):       0.434     0.410     0.239     0.076
Mean (f|x=1):        0.779     0.174     0.152     0.055
Mean (f|x=0):        0.669     0.141     0.073     0.026
Median (f|x=1):      0.840     0.150     0.150     0.100
Median (f|x=0):      0.700     0.100     0.050     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.148     0.100     0.074     0.064
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.181     0.095     0.054     0.024
Discrimination:      0.111     0.033     0.079     0.029
ME:                  0.037    -0.068     0.010     0.021
RPSsc:               0.280    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.257    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.048    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.071    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.209    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1995
Start:              1/1/95
End:              12/31/95
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            218        83        59         5
Mean (f):            0.664     0.193     0.102     0.041
Mean (x):            0.597     0.227     0.162     0.014
Median (f):          0.700     0.150     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f):         0.196     0.112     0.073     0.044
Std Dev (x):         0.491     0.420     0.369     0.116
Std Dev (f-x):       0.458     0.419     0.358     0.123
Mean (f|x=1):        0.723     0.222     0.143     0.052
Mean (f|x=0):        0.577     0.184     0.094     0.041
Median (f|x=1):      0.790     0.200     0.150     0.050
Median (f|x=0):      0.600     0.150     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.174     0.106     0.090     0.032
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.195     0.112     0.067     0.044
Discrimination:      0.146     0.038     0.049     0.011
ME:                  0.067    -0.034    -0.060     0.027
RPSsc:               0.399    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.368    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.102    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.133    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.266    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1994
Start:              1/1/94
End:              12/31/94
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            166       101        79        19
Mean (f):            0.553     0.233     0.151     0.063
Mean (x):            0.455     0.277     0.216     0.052
Median (f):          0.550     0.250     0.150     0.050
Std Dev (f):         0.216     0.102     0.099     0.065
Std Dev (x):         0.499     0.448     0.412     0.222
Std Dev (f-x):       0.440     0.444     0.393     0.208
Mean (f|x=1):        0.664     0.257     0.209     0.164
Mean (f|x=0):        0.460     0.224     0.135     0.057
Median (f|x=1):      0.700     0.250     0.200     0.150
Median (f|x=0):      0.450     0.200     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.177     0.095     0.104     0.122
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.201     0.103     0.091     0.056
Discrimination:      0.204     0.034     0.074     0.107
ME:                  0.098    -0.044    -0.065     0.011
RPSsc:               0.494    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.412    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.141    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.223    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.271    -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:  Likelihood (probability) of the occurrence of geomagnetic category
Year:                 1993
Start:              1/1/93
End:              12/31/93
Total Records:         365       365       365       365
Geomag Category:     Q-U        A       Mn Stm  Mj-Svr Stm
Event Days:            175       114        56        20
Mean (f):            0.582     0.230     0.131     0.057
Mean (x):            0.479     0.312     0.153     0.055
Median (f):          0.600     0.250     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f):         0.212     0.109     0.088     0.064
Std Dev (x):         0.500     0.464     0.361     0.228
Std Dev (f-x):       0.467     0.462     0.353     0.230
Mean (f|x=1):        0.662     0.253     0.175     0.087
Mean (f|x=0):        0.508     0.220     0.123     0.055
Median (f|x=1):      0.700     0.250     0.150     0.050
Median (f|x=0):      0.500     0.200     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):     0.196     0.101     0.089     0.091
Std Dev (f|x=0):     0.198     0.111     0.085     0.062
Discrimination:      0.154     0.033     0.052     0.032
ME:                  0.103    -0.082    -0.022     0.002
RPSsc:               0.466    -99999    -99999    -99999
RPS:                 0.432    -99999    -99999    -99999
REL:                 0.162    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 1:               0.197    -99999    -99999    -99999
RES 2:               0.270    -99999    -99999    -99999