NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

SWPC GPRA Metrics Plot


This figure shows the performance of SWPC next-day G1 or greater storm forecasts during 2013. The bottom panel plots the daily observed maximum Kp (solid histogram) along with the next-day (one-day lead time) maximum Kp forecast (connected points). The G1 storm threshold is indicated by the horizontal dashed line at Kp=5. The top panel plots various performance metrics of the G1 or greater forecasts, including the frequency Bias (values greater than 1 indicate more warnings were issued than events observed), Critical Success Index (also called the Threat Score), Probability of Detection (POD), and the False Alarm Ratio (FAR). The POD is currently the SWPC GPRA metric. Detailed definitions of these metrics are in the Verification Glossary.

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