NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

SWPC GPRA Metrics Plot


This figure shows the performance of SWPC forecasts of maximum Kp during 2013. The bottom panel plots the daily observed maximum Kp (solid histogram) along with the next-day (one-day lead time) maximum Kp forecast (connected points). The G1 storm threshold is indicated by the horizontal dashed line at Kp=5. The top panel plots the Kp forecast error (forecast-observed) in Kp units, indicating either over or under forecasting of the daily maximum observed Kp, for forecasts with one to three-day lead times. Next-day forecasts of maximum Kp of G1 or greater are the basis for the SWPC geomagnetic storm GPRA metric.

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