NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
These plots show the annual trend, from 1986 to 2013, of various verification metrics for S1 Proton Event forecasts with lead times of one to three days. The top panel plots the number of days on which a Proton Event occurred during the year (event climatology), the second panel plots the mean error (or bias) of the forecasts, the third panel shows the mean square error of the forecasts, and the bottom panel displays the linear association (correlation) between the forecasts and observations. The vertical red dashed line marks Jan 2000 when the proton event forecast was changed from event "onset" days to all days for which the proton event 10 pfu threshold was exceeded.
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