# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for K5 Short-Term Warnings # # Missing data: -99999 # Year 2012 Hits 34 Misses 0 False Alarms 18 Correct Rejections 2876 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 1.00 False Alarm Ratio 0.35 Success Ratio 0.65 Critical Success Index 0.65 Bias 1.53 Gilbert Score 0.65 Heidke Skill Score 0.79 True Skill Statistic 0.99 Year 2011 Hits 20 Misses 0 False Alarms 23 Correct Rejections 2877 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 1.00 False Alarm Ratio 0.53 Success Ratio 0.46 Critical Success Index 0.46 Bias 2.15 Gilbert Score 0.46 Heidke Skill Score 0.63 True Skill Statistic 0.99 Year 2010 Hits 14 Misses 4 False Alarms 7 Correct Rejections 2895 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 0.78 False Alarm Ratio 0.33 Success Ratio 0.67 Critical Success Index 0.56 Bias 1.17 Gilbert Score 0.56 Heidke Skill Score 0.72 True Skill Statistic 0.78 Year 2009 Hits 4 Misses 5 False Alarms 1 Correct Rejections 2910 Climatology 0.00 Probability of Detection 0.44 False Alarm Ratio 0.20 Success Ratio 0.80 Critical Success Index 0.40 Bias 0.56 Gilbert Score 0.40 Heidke Skill Score 0.57 True Skill Statistic 0.44 Year 2008 Hits 17 Misses 7 False Alarms 8 Correct Rejections 2896 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 0.71 False Alarm Ratio 0.32 Success Ratio 0.68 Critical Success Index 0.53 Bias 1.04 Gilbert Score 0.53 Heidke Skill Score 0.69 True Skill Statistic 0.71 Year 2007 Hits 19 Misses 19 False Alarms 9 Correct Rejections 2873 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 0.50 False Alarm Ratio 0.32 Success Ratio 0.68 Critical Success Index 0.40 Bias 0.74 Gilbert Score 0.40 Heidke Skill Score 0.57 True Skill Statistic 0.50 Year 2006 Hits 28 Misses 15 False Alarms 18 Correct Rejections 2877 Climatology 0.01 Probability of Detection 0.65 False Alarm Ratio 0.39 Success Ratio 0.61 Critical Success Index 0.46 Bias 1.07 Gilbert Score 0.45 Heidke Skill Score 0.71 True Skill Statistic 0.64 Year 2005 Hits 47 Misses 22 False Alarms 32 Correct Rejections 2851 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.68 False Alarm Ratio 0.40 Success Ratio 0.59 Critical Success Index 0.46 Bias 1.14 Gilbert Score 0.46 Heidke Skill Score 0.73 True Skill Statistic 0.67 Year 2004 Hits 31 Misses 27 False Alarms 17 Correct Rejections 2845 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.53 False Alarm Ratio 0.35 Success Ratio 0.65 Critical Success Index 0.41 Bias 0.83 Gilbert Score 0.41 Heidke Skill Score 0.58 True Skill Statistic 0.53 Year 2003 Hits 58 Misses 63 False Alarms 65 Correct Rejections 2734 Climatology 0.04 Probability of Detection 0.48 False Alarm Ratio 0.53 Success Ratio 0.47 Critical Success Index 0.31 Bias 1.02 Gilbert Score 0.29 Heidke Skill Score 0.45 True Skill Statistic 0.46 Year 2002 Hits 22 Misses 26 False Alarms 22 Correct Rejections 2858 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.46 False Alarm Ratio 0.50 Success Ratio 0.50 Critical Success Index 0.31 Bias 0.92 Gilbert Score 0.31 Heidke Skill Score 0.47 True Skill Statistic 0.45 Year 2001 Hits 30 Misses 20 False Alarms 16 Correct Rejections 2854 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.60 False Alarm Ratio 0.35 Success Ratio 0.65 Critical Success Index 0.40 Bias 0.92 Gilbert Score 0.45 Heidke Skill Score 0.62 True Skill Statistic 0.59 Year 2000 Hits 29 Misses 25 False Alarms 29 Correct Rejections 2845 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.54 False Alarm Ratio 0.50 Success Ratio 0.50 Critical Success Index 0.35 Bias 1.07 Gilbert Score 0.34 Heidke Skill Score 0.51 True Skill Statistic 0.53 Year 1999 Hits 9 Misses 49 False Alarms 23 Correct Rejections 2840 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 0.16 False Alarm Ratio 0.72 Success Ratio 0.28 Critical Success Index 0.11 Bias 0.55 Gilbert Score 0.10 Heidke Skill Score 0.19 True Skill Statistic 0.15