NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Proton Warning Lead Time Plot


The top graph plots the annual average lead time of S1 Proton Event Short-Term Warnings. Lead time is defined as the time between the warning being issued and when the greater than 10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeds the 10 pfu event threshold. A missed warning, where a proton event is observed but no warning was issued, is counted as a lead time of 0 minutes. The middle plot shows the annual average of the Heidke skill score. This score ranges from -1 to +1, where all correct warnings give a score of +1, no correct warnings give a score of -1, and no proton event observed or no warnings issued give a score of 0. The bottom histogram plots the annual frequency of proton events observed, warning hits, warning misses, and warning false alarms.

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