# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Proton Short-Term Warnings # # Missing data: -99999 # Year 2012 Hits 16 Misses 0 False Alarms 3 Correct Rejections 347 Climatology 0.04 Probability of Detection 1.00 False Alarm Ratio 0.16 Success Ratio 0.84 Critical Success Index 0.84 Bias 1.19 Gilbert Score 0.84 Heidke Skill Score 0.91 True Skill Statistic 0.99 Year 2011 Hits 8 Misses 0 False Alarms 1 Correct Rejections 356 Climatology 0.02 Probability of Detection 1.00 False Alarm Ratio 0.11 Success Ratio 0.89 Critical Success Index 0.89 Bias 1.12 Gilbert Score 0.89 Heidke Skill Score 0.94 True Skill Statistic 0.99 Year 2010 Hits 1 Misses 0 False Alarms 1 Correct Rejections 363 Climatology 0.00 Probability of Detection 1.00 False Alarm Ratio 0.50 Success Ratio 0.50 Critical Success Index 0.50 Bias 2.00 Gilbert Score 0.50 Heidke Skill Score 0.67 True Skill Statistic 1.00 Year 2009 Hits 0 Misses 0 False Alarms 0 Correct Rejections 365 Climatology 0.00 Probability of Detection -99999 False Alarm Ratio -99999 Success Ratio -99999 Critical Success Index -99999 Bias -99999 Gilbert Score -99999 Heidke Skill Score -99999 True Skill Statistic -99999 Year 2008 Hits 0 Misses 0 False Alarms 0 Correct Rejections 365 Climatology 0.00 Probability of Detection -99999 False Alarm Ratio -99999 Success Ratio -99999 Critical Success Index -99999 Bias -99999 Gilbert Score -99999 Heidke Skill Score -99999 True Skill Statistic -99999 Year 2007 Hits 0 Misses 0 False Alarms 0 Correct Rejections 365 Climatology 0.00 Probability of Detection -99999 False Alarm Ratio -99999 Success Ratio -99999 Critical Success Index -99999 Bias -99999 Gilbert Score -99999 Heidke Skill Score -99999 True Skill Statistic -99999 Year: 2006 Hits: 9 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 357 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.90 False Alarm Ratio: 0 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 0.90 Gilbert Score: 0.90 Heidke Skill Score: 0.94 True Skill Statistic: 0.90 Year: 2005 Hits: 7 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 357 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.13 Success Ratio: 0.88 Critical Success Index: 0.88 Bias: 1.14 Gilbert Score: 0.87 Heidke Skill Score: 0.93 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2004 Hits: 6 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 360 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2003 Hits: 9 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 355 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.10 Success Ratio: 0.90 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 1.11 Gilbert Score: 0.90 Heidke Skill Score: 0.95 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2002 Hits: 18 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 345 Climatology: 0.05 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.10 Success Ratio: 0.90 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 1.11 Gilbert Score: 0.89 Heidke Skill Score: 0.94 True Skill Statistic: 0.99 Year: 2001 Hits: 21 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 5 Correct Rejections: 339 Climatology: 0.06 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.19 Success Ratio: 0.81 Critical Success Index: 0.81 Bias: 1.24 Gilbert Score: 0.80 Heidke Skill Score: 0.89 True Skill Statistic: 0.99 Year: 2000 Hits: 9 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 6 Correct Rejections: 348 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.75 False Alarm Ratio: 0.40 Success Ratio: 0.60 Critical Success Index: 0.50 Bias: 1.25 Gilbert Score: 0.49 Heidke Skill Score: 0.65 True Skill Statistic: 0.73 Year: 1999 Hits: 2 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 359 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.40 False Alarm Ratio: 0.33 Success Ratio: 0.67 Critical Success Index: 0.33 Bias: 0.60 Gilbert Score: 0.33 Heidke Skill Score: 0.49 True Skill Statistic: 0.40 Year: 1998 Hits: 4 Misses: 4 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 356 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.20 Success Ratio: 0.80 Critical Success Index: 0.44 Bias: 0.63 Gilbert Score: 0.44 Heidke Skill Score: 0.61 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1997 Hits: 2 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 363 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 1996 Hits: 0 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 366 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: -99999 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: -99999 Bias: -99999 Gilbert Score: -99999 Heidke Skill Score: -99999 True Skill Statistic: -99999 Year: 1995 Hits: 0 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 364 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: 0.00 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: 0.00 Bias: 0.00 Gilbert Score: 0.00 Heidke Skill Score: 0.00 True Skill Statistic: 0.00 Year: 1994 Hits: 0 Misses: 2 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 363 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.00 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: 0.00 Bias: 0.00 Gilbert Score: 0.00 Heidke Skill Score: 0.00 True Skill Statistic: 0.00 Year: 1993 Hits: 1 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 361 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.67 Success Ratio: 0.33 Critical Success Index: 0.25 Bias: 1.50 Gilbert Score: 0.25 Heidke Skill Score: 0.40 True Skill Statistic: 0.49 Year: 1992 Hits: 3 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 359 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.25 Success Ratio: 0.75 Critical Success Index: 0.43 Bias: 0.67 Gilbert Score: 0.42 Heidke Skill Score: 0.59 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1991 Hits: 5 Misses: 12 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 346 Climatology: 0.05 Probability of Detection: 0.29 False Alarm Ratio: 0.29 Success Ratio: 0.71 Critical Success Index: 0.26 Bias: 0.41 Gilbert Score: 0.25 Heidke Skill Score: 0.40 True Skill Statistic: 0.29 Year: 1990 Hits: 6 Misses: 6 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 352 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.14 Success Ratio: 0.86 Critical Success Index: 0.46 Bias: 0.58 Gilbert Score: 0.45 Heidke Skill Score: 0.62 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1989 Hits: 3 Misses: 20 False Alarms: 9 Correct Rejections: 333 Climatology: 0.06 Probability of Detection: 0.13 False Alarm Ratio: 0.75 Success Ratio: 0.25 Critical Success Index: 0.09 Bias: 0.52 Gilbert Score: 0.07 Heidke Skill Score: 0.13 True Skill Statistic: 0.10 Year: 1988 Hits: 3 Misses: 7 False Alarms: 4 Correct Rejections: 352 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.30 False Alarm Ratio: 0.57 Success Ratio: 0.43 Critical Success Index: 0.21 Bias: 0.70 Gilbert Score: 0.20 Heidke Skill Score: 0.34 True Skill Statistic: 0.29 Year: 1987 Hits: 1 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 364 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00