NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
Forecast Verification Bibliography
NOAA National Weather Service Space Weather
|Verification Quick Links
Verification Home, K5 Warnings, K6 Warnings, Proton Warnings,
F10.7 Solar Flux, M-class Flares, X-class Flares, 10 MeV Proton Events,
Estimated Ap, Fredericksburg A, Geomagnetic Probabilities,
- Barnston, Anthony G., 1992:
- Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures; refinement of the Heidke score. Weather and Forecasting, 7, 699-709. PDF
- Barnston, Anthony G. and H.M. van den Dool, 1993:
- A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts. J. Climate, 6, 963-977. PDF
- Blattenberger, G., and F. Lad, 1985:
- Separating the Brier score into calibration and refinement components:
A graphical exposition. The American Statistician, 39, 26-32.
- Brier, G.W., and R.A. Allen, 1951:
- Verification of Weather Forecasts. Compendium of Meteorology,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 841-848.
- Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine, 1997:
- Wavelets and field forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 1329-1341. PDF
- Brooks, H.E., and C.A. Doswell, 1996:
- A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented
approaches to forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 288-303. PDF
- Charba, J.P., D.W. Reynolds, B.E. McDonald, and G.M. Carter, 2003:
- Comparative verification of recent quantitative precipitation
forecasts in the National Weather Service: A simple approach for
scoring forecast accuracy. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 161-183. PDF
- Clemen, R.T., A.H. Murphy, and R,L. Winkler, 1995:
- Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 133-146.
- Daan, Harold, 1985:
- Sensitivity of verification scores to the classification of the predictand. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 1384-1392. PDF
- DeGroot, M.H., and S.E. Fienberg, 1983:
- The comparison and evaluation of forecasters. The Statistician, 32, 14-22.
- Doswell III, C.A., R.P. Davies-Jones, and D.L. Keller, 1990:
- On Summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Weather and Forecasting, 5, 576-585. PDF
- Doswell III, C.A. and Harold E. Brooks, 1997:
- Budget cutting and the value of weather services. Forecaster's Forum, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 206-212. PDF
- Ehrendorfer, M., and A.H. Murphy, 1988:
- Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting
systems: Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 1757-1770. PDF
- Finley, J.P., 1884:
- Tornado Predictions. American Meteorological Journal, 1, 85-88.
- Flueck, J.A., 1987:
- A study of some measures of forecast verification. 10th Conf. Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences,
Edmonton, Alberta, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69-73.
- Gandin, L.S. and A, H, Murphy, 1992:
- Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 361-370. PDF
- Gilbert, G.F., 1884:
- Finley's Tornado Predictions. American Meteorological Journal, 1, 166-172.
- Krzysztofowicz, R., 1992:
- Bayesian correlation score: A utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 208-219. PDF
- Livezey, R.E., 1986:
- Caveat emptor! The evaluation of skill in climate predictions. Toward Understanding Climate Change. The J.O. Fletcher Lectures on
Problems and Prospects of Climate Analysis and Forecasting,
Editor U. Radok, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 149-178.
- Livezey, R.E., 1995:
- Evaluation of forecasts. Analysis of Climate Variability (H. von Storch and A. Navarra, Editors). Berlin, Germany, Springer-Verlag,
- Lupo, A.R. and P.S. Market, 2002:
- The application of a simple method for the verification of weather
forecasts and seasonal variations in forecast accuracy. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 891-897. PDF
- Marshall, K.T., and R.M, Oliver, 1995:
- Decision Making and Forecasting. New York, NY,
McGraw-Hill, 407 pp. See Chapter 8 (pp. 303-341).
- Mason, I., 1989:
- Dependence of the critical success index on sample climate and threshold probability. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 37, 75-81.
- Michaelson, J., 1987:
- Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1589-1600.
- Mielke, P.W., 1991:
- The application of multivariate permutation methods based on distance
functions in the earth sciences. Earth Sciences Review,
- Mozer, J.B. and W.M. Briggs, 2003:
- Skill in real-time solar wind shock
forecasts. J. Geophys. Res., 108(A6), 1262-1270. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1991:
- Forecast verification: its complexity and dimensionality. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 1590-1601. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1991:
- Probabilities, odds, and forecasts of rare events. Forecaster's Forum, Weather and Forecasting, 6, 302-307. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1993:
- What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather
forecasting, Weather and Forecasting, 8, 281-293. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1995:
- A coherent method of stratification within the general framework
for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 123, 1582-1588. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1996:
- The Finely affair: a signal event in the history of weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 003-020. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1996:
- General decompositions of MSE-based skill scores: Measures of some
basic aspects of forecast quality. Monthly Weather Review, 124, 2353-2369. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., 1997:
- Forecast verification. Economic Value of Weather and Climate
Forecasts (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors). Cambridge, U.K.,
Cambridge University Press, 222pp.
- Murphy, A.H., B.G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen, 1989:
- Diagnostic verification of temperature
forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 4, 485-501. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., and H. Daan, 1985:
- Forecast evaluation. Probability, Statistics, and Decision
Making in the Atmospheric Sciences (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors).
Boulder, CO, Westview Press, pp. 379-437.
- Murphy, A.H., and E.S. Epstein, 1989:
- Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model
verification. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 572-581. PDF
- Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler, 1987:
- A general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338. PDF
- Murphy, A.H,, and R.L. Winkler, 1992:
- Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 435-455.
- Potts, J.M., C.K. Folland, I.T. Joiliffe, and D. Sexton, 1996:
- Revised 'LEPS' scores for
assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate, 9, 34-53. PDF
- Radok, Uwe, 1988:
- Chance behavior of skill scores, Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 489-494. PDF
- Saha, Suranjana and H.M. Van den Dool, 1988:
- A measure of the practical limit of predictability. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 2522-2526. PDF
- Shaefer, J.T., 1990:
- The Critical Success Index as an Indicator of Warning Skill. Weather and Forecasting, 5, 570-575.
- Schervish, M.J., 1989:
- A general method for comparing probability assessors. Annals of Statistics, 17, 1856-1879.
- Stanski, H.R., L.J. Wilson and W.R. Burrows, 1989:
- Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization, World Weather Watch Report No. 8 (TD No. 358), 114 pp.
- Thibeaux, H.J. and F.W. Zwiers, 1984:
- The interpretation and estimation of effective sample size. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 800-811.
- Thomson, A.W.P., 2000:
- Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity
from a user perspective.Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 4049-4052. PDF
- Van den Dool, H.M., 1987:
- A bias in skill in forecasts based on analogues and antilogues. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1278-1281. PDF
- Ward, M.N. and C.K. Folland, 1991:
- Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using
eigenvectors of sea-surface temperatures. International Journal of
Climatology, 11, 711-743.
- Watterson, I.G., 1996:
- Non-dimensional measures of climate model performance. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 379-391.
- Wilks, D.S., 1995:
- Statistical Methods in the Atmospheic Sciences. San Diego, CA,
Academic Press, 464 pp. See Chapter 7 (pp. 233-283).
- Wilks, D.S., 2000:
- Diagnostic verification of the climate prediction center long-lead
outlooks, 1995-98. Journal of Climate, 13, 2389-2403. PDF
- Wilson, L.J., W.R. Burrows, and A. Lanzinger, 1999:
- A strategy for verification of weather element forecasts from an
ensemble prediction system. Monthly Weather Review, 127, 956-970. PDF
- Winkler, R.L., 1994:
- Evaluating probabilities: Asymmetric scoring rules. Management
Science, 40, 1395-1405.
- Winkler, R.L., 1996:
- Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (with discussion), Test 5 , in press.
- Yates, J.F., 1994:
- Subjective probability accuracy analysis. Subjective Probability (G. Wright and P. Ayton, Editors). Chichester, U.K., Wiley, pp. 381-410.
- Zhang, H. and T. Casey, 2000:
- Verification of categorical probability forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 80-89. PDF
Updated: October 1, 2007