NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast Verification

Verification Quick Links
Verification Home, Max K and GPRA, G1 (K5) Warnings, G2 (K6) Warnings,
Estimated Ap, Fredericksburg A, Geomagnetic Activity Category,
M-class Flares, X-class Flares, F10.7 Solar Flux, S1 Proton Events, S1 Event Warnings,
Glossary, Bibliography

Forecasts of 10.7 cm solar radio flux are integer forecasts of the daily observed flux at 2800 Mhz (10.7 cm) in solar flux units (10-22W m-2 Hz-1) and are verified against local-noon observations at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory, Penticton, British Columbia, Canada. Forecast lead times range from 1-day to 7-days. Verification results are provided on forecasts from July 1986 (the beginning of solar cycle 22) through December 2013.


Stats Table Thumbnail Statistics Summary Tables

Observations Thumbnail Observed 10.7 cm Solar Flux Plot

Joint Distribution Thumbnail Joint Distribution of Forecasts and Observations Plot

Quantile Thumbnail Conditional Quantile Plot

Stack Plot Thumbnail Forecast Mean Error, RMS Error, and Linear Association Plot

Skill Thumbnail Forecast Skill vs Lead Time