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Forecast Verification


Warnings and forecasts of geophysical activity are some of the services provided by the SWPC Space Weather Forecast Office and effective use of these products requires knowledge of their capability and limitations. Verification statistics and other forecast quality information is provided through the links on this web page to assist with that goal. Forecasts from the SWPC primary daily forecast products are included: Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (SDF), 3-day Space Weather Forecast, and NOAA Geomagnetic 3-day Forecast, as well as short-term warnings of geomagnetic G1 (K=5), G2 (K=6), and proton S1 (10 pfu at 10 MeV) events. Also found here are a glossary of verification terms, including formulas for the various metrics, a verification bibliography with links to PDF files of verification related papers, and background tutorials on various forecast verification topics.

   Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts

   Solar Activity Forecasts

   Forecast Verification Resources

Glossary of Verification Terms

Selected Verification Bibliography

Verification Tutorials

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Page last modified: February 11, 2014


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