NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Geomagnetic Probability Forecast Verification


Verification Quick Links
Verification Home, Max K and GPRA, G1 (K5) Warnings, G2 (K6) Warnings,
Estimated Ap, Fredericksburg A, Geomagnetic Activity Category,
M-class Flares, X-class Flares, F10.7 Solar Flux, S1 Proton Events, S1 Event Warnings,
Glossary, Bibliography

Geomagnetic Probability forecasts are forecasts of the likelihood (from 1% to 99%) that the daily geomagnetic activity level will reach a particular activity category. The four categories are Quiet to Unsettled, Active, Minor Storm, and Major to Severe Storm. The geomagnetic category assigned to a day is determined by the highest observed K-index for the day. Quiet to Unsettled = K 0 to K 3, Active = K 4, Minor Storm = K 5, and Major to Severe Storm = K 6 to K 9. Middle-latitude forecasts are verified against Fredericksburg, VA observations and High-latitude forecasts are verified against College, AK observations. Forecast lead times range from one to three days.

 

Middle Latitude Geomagnetic Probability Forecasts

Statistics Summary Tables Statistics Summary Tables

Ranked Probability Score Middle Latitude Ranked Probability Score Plot

Geomagnetic Probability Stack Plot Middle Latitude Reliability, Resolution 1, Resolution 2 Plot

 

High Latitude Geomagnetic Probability Forecasts

Statistics Summary Tables Statistics Summary Tables

Ranked Probability Score High Latitude Ranked Probability Score Plot

Geomagnetic Probability Stack Plot High Latitude Reliability, Resolution 1, Resolution 2 Plot