:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 05 2211 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 993 (S31E14)
remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between
1500-1800Z.  Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
satellite, remain elevated at about 625 km/s.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (06 and 07 May) due to the
high speed stream.  By day 3 (08 May), geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 68
Predicted   06 May-08 May  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  008/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01