:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 11 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (12 September). Quiet levels, with
unsettled periods possible at high latitudes, are expected on day
two (13 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day three
(14 September) as a coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to
become geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 069
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  069/069/068
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  005/005-005/008-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01