:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at all latitudes between 14/0000-0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods at high latitudes, for the next three days (15-17
September). The increased activity is expected as a recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 069
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  007/015-008/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01