:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 16 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period at mid latitudes from 0300Z-0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet with isolated unsettled levels for day one
and day two (17-18 September). This activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. On day three (19 September), the
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 069
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  069/069/070
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  007/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01