:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 20 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. Solar x-ray
images and Stereo B EUVI continue to indicate an active region just
on or behind the east limb although so far there have not been any
reports of the group in ground-based H-alpha imagery.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Background levels are expected to increase gradually as the new
region rotates onto the solar disk. There is a slight chance for
isolated B-class events during the next three days (21-23
September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 071
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  073/075/077
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01