:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 11 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 11/0042Z (09 nT, as measured
by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind observations
indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream commenced early
in the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased during the
period (peak 463 km/sec at 11/1901Z). A period of mostly southward
Bz was observed during 11/0430 - 0800Z (minimum -10 nT at 11/0636Z).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (12 - 14
October) with a chance for isolated unsettled conditions as the
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream persists.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 070
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01