:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 14 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days 1 and 2 (15 - 16
October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown coronal
holes begins to influence the field.  Activity is expected be mostly
quiet by day 3 (17 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 071
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  007/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01