:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 15 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  At approximately 15/0500Z, ACE
satellite measurements observed increases in temperature, density
and velocity, all indicative of a CIR in advance of a weak coronal
hole wind stream.  Wind speeds increased from a low of about 300
km/s to near 430 km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF indicated a
weak southward trend of near -5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (16 October) as
the equatorward extension of the northern crown coronal hole
continues to influence the field.  Activity is expected to be mostly
quiet on days 2 and 3 (17 - 18 October) as coronal hole effects
wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 070
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01