:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 980 (S08E58) produced a
long duration C1 flare at 02/1000Z.  An associated CME was observed
on LASCO C3 imagery at 02/1006Z.  This region is currently
classified as a CSO beta sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 980.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes for the forecast period (3-5 January).  Elevated
activity is forecast due to possible effects from transients
associated with the recent C-class flares.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 080
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  085/087/090
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  006/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01