:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with some isolated active
periods during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained
elevated throughout the period and showed characteristics consistent
with a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the
first day (07 January). Conditions are expected to decline to quiet
to unsettled for the second day (08 January) and should be
predominantly quiet for the third day (09 January) as the high speed
stream is expected to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 079
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  012/015-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01