:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The high speed stream
that began yesterday was briefly interrupted during this period. 
The solar wind at ACE reached approximately 590 km/s at 2300Z
yesterday before declining to 450 km/s from 0800Z until 1400Z.  This
slack period was accompanied by increased density and decreased
temperature.  At 1400Z, these trends all reversed and the wind speed
leveled off at approximately 550 km/s by 1600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active at mid latitudes with a chance
for minor storm periods at high latitudes.  Data from STEREO-Behind
suggest a continued increase in solar wind speed through day 2 (15
Jan) reflecting the continued influence of the coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 075
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  075/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  012/015-012/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05