:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 31 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Solar wind data from ACE
show a marked increase in velocity, density, magnetic field and
temperature.  These observations are consistent with the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions due
to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 072
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  008/012-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05