:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. A weak, faint CME was observed in the STEREO-A
and STEREO-B COR2 coronagraphs beginning at 0923Z. The signature on
the ahead coronagraph gave the appearance of a limb event and the
signature on the behind spacecraft looked like a very faint halo
event. Associated disk signatures were clearly observed near S15E20
using the STEREO-B EUVI 195 images which showed an eruptive type of
event, likely the result of a filament eruption.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (05-07 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE
shows a continuing downward trend as the influence of the high speed
stream is waning. The solar wind speed at forecast issue time was
around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (05-07
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 071
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    02/02/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01