:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (07 Feb). Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (08 - 09 Feb) as a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
Isolated active periods are also possible on day 3 (09 Feb).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 072
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  005/005-008/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/25
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01