:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 760 km/s at
11/2335Z.  By the end of the summary period wind speed was close to
600 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled levels, with isolated
active periods possible on days one and two (13 - 14 February). 
Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (15 February) as the high speed stream rotates out of a
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 072
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  010/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05