:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled due to a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed
remains in excess of 600 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible isolated active
conditions, 15 - 16 February due to the continued influence of the
coronal hole high speed stream.  On 17 February conditions are
expected to abate to quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 071
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  008/010-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05