:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  An emerging flux region was observed at N10E03.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
continued influence of a high speed stream.  Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 685 km/s near 2300Z to 569
km/s near 1700Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit remained at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (14 March), quiet on day 2
(15 March) in response to a slackening solar wind.  A return to
unsettled levels is anticipated on day 3 (16 March) with the
possibility of active periods at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 070
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/008-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/40
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05