:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Apr 03 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period.
No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from plage Region 989.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with
active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to
increase to active levels on days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 April) with minor
to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream
continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 076
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  075/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  007/010-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/30
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/50/50
Minor storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05