:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Feb 07 2148 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 January - 05 February 2012

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels throughout the
period with two C-class flares observed. Region 1410 (N18, L=056,
class/area Cso/240 on 01 February) produced a C1 event at 0440Z on
30 January. The second event was also a C1 flare, at 0441Z on 01
February from Region 1408 (N06, L=132, Class/area Hax/120 on 21
January). Low level B-class activity dominated the remainder of the
period. As the summary period ended, there were only three spotted
regions on the visible disk, with Regions 1413 (N08, L=062,
class/area Csi/100) and 1410 the most pronounced. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 27/1905Z and
reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z, dropped below the 10 pfu
threshold and ended at 31/0635Z. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 30 January at 1635Z. Predominantly background levels
prevailed with moderate levels observed from 03 - 04 February. 

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels
during the past week. The geomagnetic field was quiet, until the
arrival of a glancing blow from the asymmetric halo CME that
occurred in association with the X1/1f flare on 27 January. The
transient passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at 30/1554Z
with a solar wind speed increase from around 320 km/s to near 430
km/s. A weak sudden impulse measuring 8 nT was observed by the
Boulder magnetometer at 30/1624Z. The field increased to unsettled
levels following the shock but returned to quiet levels by 31/0000Z.
Quiet conditions prevailed on 31 January. On 01 February, a coronal
hole high speed stream became geoeffective with unsettled to minor
storm levels observed at high latitudes and predominantly quiet
levels observed at mid latitudes from 01 February through the end of
the summary period on 05 February. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 February - 05 March 2012

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels until 10
February, when old Region 1402 (N28, L=214) returns. An increase to
low levels with a chance for M-class activity is expected as old
Region 1402 transits the visible disk. A decrease to very low to
levels is expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. 

Energetic proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain
near background levels until old Region 1402 returns on 10 February.
A slight chance exists for a proton event from 10 -24 February, as
old Region 1402 transits the solar disk. A return to background
levels is expected for the remainder of the period. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet to
unsettled levels through the forecast period. There is potential for
active periods with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes
on 09-10 February, on 23 February, and again on 02-03 March, due to
effects from coronal hole high speed wind streams.