The 3-Day Aurora Forecast model shows the intensity and location of the aurora as expected for the time shown at the top of the map. This forecast is based on the 0 - 3 day forecast of the planetary geomagnetic activity index, Kp, that is provided as input on a 3-hour cadence. Each frame shows the estimated location of the aurora for a three-hour period. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and lighter color of the continents. The day-night line or terminator is shown as a region that goes from light to dark. The lighter edge is where the sun is just at the horizon. The darker edge is where the sun is 12 degrees below the horizon.
Note that the aurora will not be visible during daylight hours and it may be an hour or more before sunrise or after sunset that the aurora can be seen from the ground.
Note, a short term 30 minute aurora forecast is also available.
This product is very loosely based on the OVATION Aurora Forecast model, an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Lab. The version of the model that is used here has been modified to use the planetary geomagnetic activity index, Kp, as a driver rather than the solar wind conditions. The model produces an estimate of the intensity of the auroral energy at locations on Earth for each three-hour period into the future.
There will be an ASCII version of this product available at this location when the product becomes operational.