Space Weather Prediction Challenges

Two Prediction Challenges were initiated during Space Weather Week, held at the NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO in April, 1999. One of these challenges targets the prediction and nowcasting of the auroral electrojets, and the other targets the prediction of geomagnetic indices. Guidelines for participation in the electrojet challenge are described below.

Motivation for Prediction Challenges:

With numerous techniques being developed to address issues of operational value, it is important now to conduct quantitative comparisons to determine which techniques perform best under various circumstances. These comparisons will provide guidance for selecting numerical techniques to enter the NOAA and the USAF Rapid Prototyping Centers, with the anticipation that they will become the basis for operational products at the Space Weather Forecast Centers.

 

Auroral Electrojet Prediction and Nowcast Challenge

The electrojet prediction and nowcast challenge will consist of modeling the response of specific ground-based magnetometers to the auroral electrojets. The modeled response can be either a prediction driven by solar wind measurements (ACE) or a nowcast driven by ground-based magnetometers that are geographically separated from the target output magnetometers.

 

 If you may be interested in participating in this Challenge and would like to receive information as it is exchanged among the participants, please send a brief email to any of the organizers listed below.

 

Time Period to Model: March 19 and 20, 1999

Target Output:

The target output will be two ground magnetometer chains: the 210 Magnetometer Chain and the Greenland Magnetometer Chain.The output should consist of the vector magnetic field in local magnetic coordinates using H (positive northward), D (positive eastward), and Z (positive downward) components, with the daily mean value subtracted for each component. The time resolution should be one minute. The test of the prediction will be made by comparing with the observations at the site locations in the table below. The output should be made available as ascii files (one file for each day) for each of the locations, preferably using the following format:

yyyy mm dd hh mm ss H-comp D-comp Z-comp

Corrected Geomagnetic Coordinates (degrees)
Station Name	Latitude	Longitude		Station Name	Latitude	Longitude
KTN	69.9	201.0		SVS	83.6	35.9
TIX	65.7	196.9		UPN	79.5	42.0
CHD	64.7	212.1		GDH	75.8	40.4
PTK	46.3	225.9		SKT	72.0	38.0
				FHB	68.0	39.7

Input data:

 

Deadline for Submission of Results:

Submission of model output corresponding to some or all of the above locations will be accepted at any time. The final deadline for submission is April 1, 2000. The model output may be submitted to any of the challenge organizers listed below.

Evaluation Method:

The challenge entries will be evaluated by the organizers of this challenge. The evaluation criterion will be based on the NSF-sponsored Metrics effort, and will consist of a daily root mean square error for each of the magnetic field components at each of the target output magnetometer locations. The results of this evaluation will be presented at the May, 2000 Space Weather Week.

Challenge Organizers:

David Boteler (boteler@geolab.nrcan.gc.ca)
Odile de la Beaujardiere (odelabe@plh.af.mil)
Terry Onsager (terry.onsager@noaa.gov).