NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Wing Kp Predicted Activity Index
7-Day Model Performance

Latest output over the past 24 hours

12-hour Plot -- 24-hour Plot -- ASCII list of model output -- 7 Day Model Performance

Plot updated every 15 minutes

Geomagnetic activity can affect communications, navigation systems, satellite health, power grids, and space travel. Kp is one of the most common indices used to indicate the severity of the global magnetic disturbances in near-Earth space.

The Wing Kp Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Index model is now deployed and operational. Costello is now considered non-operational and has been discontinued on 23 Mar 2011. Comments and questions are welcomed at SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov


Model performance -- most recent 7-day of model output is shown. At the top, simple statistics are given for the 1-hour model that characterize the model's performance in terms of accuracy (rms error), bias (mean error), association (correlation), and skill or prediction efficiency (relative error). User Guide

The dashed red line indicates the lowest alert level, G1 (minor), on the NOAA Space Weather Scale.

The bottom Lead Time panel shows an estimate of the actual lead time which depends on solar wind speed.
The lead time is the time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite, at L1, to the Earth.

Missing Kp values, Lead Time values, or model output indicates the data is not available at SWPC.

TheASCII list is a tabulated listing of model output that includes the model run time, valid time of the prediction, magnitude of the prediction in Kp units, the prediction lead time, and the Estimated Kp index. Via Anonymous FTP ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/wingkp/

For further information see Kp Forecast Models, Wing, Simon (2005) et al, /J. Geophy. Res/, Vol 110, A04203, doi:10.1029/2004JA010500.

October 18, 2010 -- Questions and Comments: SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov