10 May R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout

Region 4436 produced an M5.7 flare (R2/Moderate) at 10/1339 UTC. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 650 km/s. Modeling of the resulting CME indicates that a bulk of the material should pass well behind Earth's orbit. That being said, a glancing blow and or shock arrival by late on 12 May into the early portions of the 13th UTC-day can not be ruled out. Stay up to date with the latest forecast numbers and probabilities here, and forecast discussions found here.